Hello guys! How do you determine when a bull or bear market will end?
You don’t until it happens. The best you could hope for in today’s markets is to study global and important fundamental economic status affected by inflation, Covid, and World war 111.
Add global climate change cost and James Webb pictures of aliens waiting to take over the planet and then you’re in a better position to determine whether a bull or bear market is important.
In principle, how would it be possible to work out what the market is going to do next week?
You would need -
immensely powerful computers
top IT staff and programme designers
highly detailed economic data
ultra-fast newsflow
experienced industry-specific analysts
fantastic economic analysis
world-class TA software
central bank contacts for statistics and briefings etc.
Who has all this stuff? Not you, not me.
The big banks have all the best brains, computers and information. When they have made a decision to buy or sell, they are so big that they will cause price to move. And even with a cheap laptop and a rudimentary TA programme, you will be able to see it on the chart.
As mentioned above you know afterwards as you will probably have seen a structure shift. But you don’t have to catch the tops and bottoms so that’s fine.
there are reversal patterns at the end of every trend
There isn’t a precise way to categorize a market as bullish or bearish. It’s simpler to concentrate on specific time frames or study the price chart’s succession of peaks and dips.
The economic cycle has four phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. Bull and bear markets frequently correspond with these phases. A bull market’s emergence is frequently a leading indicator of economic expansion. Stock prices frequently rise before broader economic metrics, such as GDP growth, begin to move up, because public sentiment about future economic prospects drives stock values. Bear markets, on the other hand, frequently emerge before an economic downturn. A typical U.S. recession begins with a declining stock market several months before the economy begins to contract.
There is no specific method to predict that. I take help of candlestick patterns, such as Doji, Harmai, Marabouzu, evening & morning starts, to see where the market is going. They don’t guarantee anything, but with the help of other tools and indicators, I verify predictions and then take any course of action.
Yeah idk about using candlestick patters to predict bull/bear market start and end times.
Depends on market. Forex is a specific one, as all pairs are generally ranging in comparison to long term trends on stock markets.
If you look at US500 on monthly chart it looks like bull market was here long before I was born and keeps up bullish today
You’ve got your dot net bubble in 2001 and “MBS” one in 2008, but they look only like correction and small dip below EMA200
All of the responses so far have been great. But I would like to add one overlooked aspect to trends and that is the separate legs that make up an overall trend.
Elliot Wave theorists call these “motive waves.” In most trends, there are typically three motive waves and two pullbacks. Therefore, it is useful to count three “pushes” followed by a trading range.
I will try to give you a good example here:
This is a daily chart of the EUR/USD. I am using the Heikin Ashi candles to smooth out the price action. I have three pushes highlighted here, but you could argue that there are four, taking into account the strong push before the breakout. In either case, look for these signs the trend is about to end:
- Three of four strong pushes divided by pullbacks
- A climactic move well into the trend
- The formation of a trading range
- Wedge formation
- A rounding top (or bottom)
These all are clues that the trend may be coming to an end. While it is difficult to ascertain where to take profits, the good news is that most strong trends do not end abruptly, unless it is within a trading range.
I think OP needs to clarify what he means by “bull/bear market”
I would not call currency trend a “market”. If someone says “bullish market” I think of major indices, employment rates, interest rates, GDP, commodities moves. Within that you may have tons of different “trends” on various currency pairs, stocks, but the market globally is bullish.
If you look at major indices, these are mostly near of historical highs, that does not look like bearish market at all. On the other hand markets got hit first by Covid and now by war in Ukraine. Inflation is rising and interest rates along. In Poland or Czech Republic we already see, that increasing interest rates even fast is not cooling down the inflation + this will have high impact on mortgages. Is this an indicator of bullish market end? I’m not sure, but definitely some red flags are popping up.
Multimarket analysis. Even then it is not a given that it will reverse.