How to identify a trending market?

I know that every trader may have different approaches to identify a trending market. But you surely know the way how to identify it. Share with me guys?!

Select identification points which respond to your own strategy.

I trade long-term off the daily charts. For me, an uptrend must show the 20EMA above the 50, and both EMA’s sloping upwards. But even on that basis, some extra filters are required so that the trends of interest to me are of a certain minimum length. So its not enough to identify trends, you also need to be able to judge the best from the worst for your trades.

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You raise a rather difficult but pertinent question here. It is rather similar to the question, “how long is a piece of string?”

In order to identify a trend it is, by definition, necessary that the trend already exists and has therefore already commenced at some point earlier. For example. one common definition of a trend is a series of higher highs and higher lows (and vice versa). But that means you need at least one pair of identifiable highs and lows already in place in order to identify them.

But although any such definition will tell you what has been, it cannot define whether the trend will continue or has already exhausted itself - hence the expression:

“The trend is your friend - until the end!”

So whatever means we may use, it is still a case of following it through the rear view mirror.

Another way of looking at the issue is to look at anticipating a trend rather than identifying a trend.

We can either set certain criteria to identify a trend once it has been running long enough - and risk being “the last man in”, or we can use a set of criteria to identify set-ups that show promise of developing into a trend - and risk losing out if it fakes out prematurely.

I think the decision on which of these is most appropriate depends on the time frame one is considering. Long trends tend to persist better on long term charts of Daily and higher, whereas they get lost in the noise of lower TF charts like 1 hour or less. For short term moves (which is perhaps a more appropriate term than “trend” on these mini TFs), an earlier entry point probably offers better opportunities of a follow-through to a profitable level.

Not much help really, but maybe some catalytic thoughts to ponder on?

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I’m going to throw a wrench in this conversation. You might have heard some people say that “there is no such thing as a trend”. They may not be entirely wrong or deluded. Think of a trend as a granular level of information. For instance, when considering a trend, high and low pivot points are granular still and candles are even more granular than that.

What you want to consider instead is the “meta information” that the market is trying to convey to you. Price is fractal in its movement. As it traverses, price meanders to previous highs and lows. Therefore, when price takes a turn and the “trend” seemingly changes direction, you want to look for the level that price is reaching for; a previous high or low, on the particular chart that you are looking at.

It is this analysis that sets up your trade. Now you will be able to arrive at your entry point, SL and TP. From that point onward, if your analysis is correct, the trend and micro trends don’t matter much unless you plan to eke out the most efficient trading route from your entry to your TP; that is, get out before a retracement is due and get back in as price continues along the direction you have predicted it will take in order to reach a previous high or low, and you continue this process of entering and exiting until price arrives at your TP, at which point your trade is closed and concluded.

How To Identify a Trend
I use visual identification. Scrunch up the chart and visually observe whether price is making new highs or new lows as it moves in time.

If you want a more objective way to identify a trend then, as pointed out above, an up trend is defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows, while a down trend is a series of lower lows and lower highs. A trend may not conform exactly to this dictum and that, in part, causes some confusion in defining a trend in absolute terms.

Determining a Trend Change
When in an uptrend, and price makes a lower high and violates a previous low, we have a high probability of a trend reversal. When in a downtrend when price makes a higher low and takes out a previous high we have a high probability of a trend reversal. Marry this information with what I said above and the probability of a trend reversal increases at lows or highs on the left side of the chart.

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There are a few methods to identify the direction of a trend and I will name a couple of them.

  1. Ichimoku: The trend is bullish if price is above the cloud. The trend is bearish if price is below the cloud.
  2. Moving average: The trend is bullish if price is above the 200 MA. The trend is bearish if price is below the 200 MA.

There are several methods to identify the strength of the trend once we have identified its direction.
a) Ichimoku: Position of the tenkan-kijun cross, position of the price-kijun cross, chikou-price cross and chikou-kumo cross.
b) ADX value > 25 = start of a new strong trend.

Hope it helps.

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I didn’t really see much of a wrench here, if there is, well it was only a little one! :joy:

Personally, I would agree with all that you say above. And, indeed, in order to define how one can identify a “trend”, firstly, one has to define what one personally means by a “trend”. It can be different things to different people - which is just fine as long as we ourselves know what we are looking for!

I think this is a very good (and easy) technique. I also use a visual technique but based instead on MAs. And this can reveal very different things depending on the TF that is being used.

Only by way of example, here is what I think a long term SP500 trader would undoubtedly call a “trend” on the daily chart throughout 2017 (we rarely see such “perfect” trends!) :slight_smile:

but if we zoom in one that red rectangle and look at it on a 1 hour chart then a day trader is oblivious of the longer trend and is seeing a whole series of short “trends” in what he would probably call a flat market:

So “trend” is surely quite a subjective concept and the trader needs to first define what category of move they are interested in and then decide what criteria might define them?

It’s quite a significant wrench; perhaps subtle but significant none the less. What I’m saying is that, once you determine the likelihood of a trend change, it is time to form a thesis on the level price is reaching for. Once you do that, the trend becomes irrelevant! Price will either get to your TP or not regardless of how the trend behaves. If you’re wrong, it will hit your SL instead. Hopefully, you will have had the opportunity to get to BE before your SL is hit.

Take a look at the attached DKK chart. This is a trade that I considered but did not take due to reasons that are not relevant to this discussion.

Once it became clear to me that the trend was likely to change from an up trend to a down trend, at the point where a recent low was taken out (marked by the red line), I could have entered at the marked entry point and targeted the low marked in the orange rectangle. Thereafter, the trend looks like it could have reversed (big green rectangle). Also, my entry was taken when the trend looked like it would continue to the up side. So, if you look at the trend alone, you will not see this trade setup or you might react to perceptions of a trend change and get out too early if you were in the trade.

Not having a sense of where price is going is the reason that traders take TPs at 1:2 or 1:3 and leave a lot of pips on the table. So, instead of following the trend, follow the market. At each instance where the trend appears to change direction to the upside again, there is a certain level, which if breached will indicate that the trend is indeed changing to the upside. If you know what to look for, you will be able to treat these retracements as retracements rather than panicking and either getting out of a lucrative trade or getting stopped out at inconvenient points.

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You appear to have totally misunderstood my comment. For clarity:

You said:

The definition of “to throw a wrench into something” is to do something that prevents a plan or activity from succeeding or prevent something happening smoothly by deliberately causing a problem.

I was simply reassuring you that your post was doing nothing of the kind! :wink:

The purpose of any OP in a thread here is to invite people to give their views and opinions. There is no requirement that they agree in their content, and it causes no problem or hindrance if and when they disagree (which is not the case here, anyway).

Your points are pertinent to the topic, articulately written with clarity, informative, relevant, and very useful to the reader - and if they are too subtle for a reader, then that is more of an issue with the reader’s ability to comprehend rather than the content of your posts here.

So, in my opinion, I still see no wrench here. But if you want it to be one then that is ok, too!

Your USDDKK example is a fine example, and clearly explained. Thank you for the effort you have put into your post, it is a worthy contribution to the OP’s question.

Thank you for your shares guys, I really appreciate it!

Do you guys learn from a book, courses, or any other resources, can share?!

Almost nobody teaches trend-following - its too simple to comprise a lengthy expensive course, it doesn’t have any upselling potential, and its so undramatic as to be almost unsaleable. For similar reasons, there are few good writers on the subject.

Watch some Youtube clips, pick over some web articles. Its not difficult. The hard parts are risk and money management.

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I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. Most educators are interested in making money by peddling complexity. I don’t blame them entirely though. Most people will not value good information that can be imparted in a few hours for a charge of thousands of dollars. And I’ve learned that free information is not appreciated at all. I tried it with a forum member who seemed desperate for help but I found that he did not want to put in the work and could not appreciate the value of what I was imparting.

I would pay $5,000 - $10,000 without blinking an eyelid for what I know now. And all of it can be taught in about 2 hours at most, if you’re not a total noob. Information is not enough though. One needs to practice and to work on building up their skills over time. There is no instant gratification to be had.

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What about mentoring by expert trader? Would it be better?

Yes, manage risk and money isn’t easy either!

Yes, and these are psychological issues, not technical. Nobody ever gets past these 100%. 'cos we’re human.

Exactly!

Have you ever loss in huge amount?
If yes, how you to take action in this situation?

I interested to know about it

Never take a huge loss. Keep you loss per trade at only a small percentage, often traders say 1% or 2%.

So you set the limit ?, once the ask is hit, then your loses no more than 2%

Yes, set a limit on how much you can lose by setting a stop-loss. Adjust the position size once you know the distance between entry and stop so that the maximum capital loss can only be whatever percentage of the account is acceptable to yourself.

Notice that it is not how tight the stop is which limits losses, it is position size multiplied by stop distance. Obviously a tight stop is more likely to be hit than a wide stop.

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Power!

It will mean to me :money_mouth_face:
I thought you were a legendary trader
Where do you learn about trading, besides practice and online research?

Read a lot of books but the practice is more valuable than them. Lot of time developing theories of how price behaves and then testing these out over historic charts: not necessarily strategies, just price behaviour in various markets.

Very helpful was meeting traders face to face in several trader and investor groups I used to belong to. These were people just like me, facing the same problems and finding ways to overcome them. It used to cost me a few pounds for a meal when we met and a few pounds per year for membership of one or two of the groups but it was worth far more than the cost.