Hello everybody!
I am learning about forex for some months now. I’ve read books, watch courses, I am currently demo trading. But the question from me is about how easy do I have to keep my trading plans. I am going to use the 15 min chart and day trade because I’m currently in a leap year. Do you think I can trade the fake bbreakouts with chart patterns and candlestick patterns? I don’t want to make it too much and I think this are some things that can give your trade “high propability” chance.
My personal view is that candlesticks and chart patterns are far more erratic on short TFs like 15mins and there is a big risk of fakes and whipsaws within small price ranges. And there is a reason for this.
Reliable candlestick and pattern formations are the result of a broad change in the perceptions and activities of a growing proportion of participants throughout the market. It is back-to-front to think that the market will do something because of a certain formation. Rather it is the market doing something that forms the resultant pattern.
This is logical on higher TFs like a daily chart, but price movements on a 15min chart are nothing more than the irregularities in orders in the market and reactions to manyfold types of short term trading - there is no logical or fundamental reason behind such moves that, consequently, can very quickly revert back to their earlier level.
Regarding keeping it easy. I think the best answer is to minimalise. There is no reason to keep anything on your chart that does not serve a specific and essential function within your trading plan. Nor is there much point in keeping anything that duplicates something else.
Because of the inevitable uncertainty in trading, which is by definition, a process of evaluating probabilities, there is an understandable temptation to want to keep adding more and more indicators and lines and studies with the hope that by doing so we can grow closer to certainty from probability.
It doesn’t help. It only leads to more uncertainty and the divergence in signals - what to believe!
I think it is usually best to start with just one approach and build slowly from that - consistently, methodically, systematically, analytically, keep what works for you, reject the rest.
again I find myself agreeing with Manxx, trade one system, it doesn’t really matter at this time which system but trade it until consistent profitability is a reality.
and keep a log of the trades and or group of trades making up a position so that when you do make one adjustment at a time you can track the effect of the change. This is something you will want to maintain the rest of your trading career no matter what level of success you achieve.