Mathematically, the outcome of a system over a long period of time is the expected value. Therefore, we are interested in trades that are as likely and as long as possible, and we want losses to be as unlikely and as small as possible.
That’s what the math says.
And that’s what the task is derived from. Solving it shows a clear direction for improving the system.
The task is to think more deeply about what makes your trades better:
- What factors make your trades likely?
- What factors will make the trades longer?
- What factors will make you have the fewest losses?
PS. Will be checking your comments and messages later this week, stay in touch for answers!
The main strategy I use generates a certain number of trades per week. These are long-term trend-following. The set-up is not complicated and the TA is not sophisticated but because the major forex pairs tend to move with some level of synchronisation its hard to increase the number of trades per year.
I could use an uncorrelated second strategy to smooth out the trade signals and revenue. I’m still looking.
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I focus on the same process for every trade that meets my tight strategy criteria. Patience and discipline are at the forefront. I have several confluence signals that need to be in agreement.
My only variation is setting up the S/L and T/P targets based on price movement trends and resistance zones. As my emotional control is debatable, I close down my trading computer after opening whatever trades I’m making, and open it again the following morning.
It has been consistently profitable, albeit not ideal.
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