How to program a guts feeling

Trading Discussion
1

Hi folks,

I was watching the price action of AUDUSD and had a strong feeling that it would go higher simply based on a guts feeling (even though it had a streak of white candles recently and different indicators gave different signals). I opened a position with an initial loss of 0.13%. Within 10 minutes, it entered the positive area. It then stayed positive at around 0.25% for a while and now there is a 0.5% profit. And I feel the momentum will continue. I am pretty sure all forex traders have experienced this. Anyone knows of an indicator for the ‘firmness’ of price moves? Or any idea/thoughts/comments how to turn this guts feeling into computer code? Thank you.

2

Take your profit Now ?

Of course you cannot programme emotons into a computer !

[Edit - where are your stops ? ]

3

I am now sitting on 0.80% gain. Not going to close it soon - real money but a mini lot for study

4

Do keep us informed - I’ll love to see how much you can take out of this move :slight_smile:

[Edit - 0.80% of what ? ]

5

0.80% of my total deposit

6

Ok - how long are you going to run this and where is your SL ? - just curious :slight_smile:

I think it’s probably a good trade.

7

I didn’t have stop loss/take profit set up. Just watching and learning until another guts feeling tells me to close it. Though RSI is close to 70, volume is thin and other indicators also give a sell signal (on daily chart)

8

Well volume will be thin - it’s Xmas and middle of the night - we’re in Asian trading atm !

How long do you think you will be in this trade ?

[Edit - still at 77820 on my chart ]

[Edit 2 - It’s really not moved for a couple of hours now ]

9

Weekly chart shows the beginning of an uptrend and a long AUDUSD pays you a rollover fee everyday. I am curious to see if I can earn a 10% return at least in a week (about 7 pips = 1%)

Position opened today at 2017.12.28 01:46:07
as of now, profit is 0.95%

10

Ok 7 pips = 1%

So -100 pips = Approx -15%, 700 pips means busted out - lets see how it goes :slight_smile:

11

another full blown attack, 1.60% profit now

12

Well yes - but that’s 11 pips !

13

I think that if you want to trade on the basis of your intuition, then you may face because forex market requires strong analytical ability so that you can track the direction of price, whether it moves upward or downward. Again, it is not that intuition is always wrong, some pro traders’ intuitions are the result of their strong professional experience, so it may work positively in most of the time.

14

LOL… You’re a true programmer, Aren’t you mate ?

let me guess, if you were god, the world would be code… right ? LOL

I’ve been down this road and i can tell you this.
it’ll do your head in

but, i can see that in your case figuring this out will be better than sex
so… here you go

YOU NEED TO DO THIS

  • Firstly think about code… (The whole… THE CAKE and THE RECIPE scenario) blah blah etc.
    you know what i mean

  • Now… when you get a gut feeling… REALLY REALLY THINK ABOUT EVERY ASPECT OF IT
    and how you came to that conclusion

it will help you if you ask yourself this question

WHY DO WE CALL IT A GUT FEELING
is it because the feeling is in our gut

what does that mean anyway, because the idea actually comes from your brain

You will ultimately arrive at this conclusion

YOUR BRAIN IS ABSOLUTELY AMAZING.
it is capable of forming conclusions, and Very Accurate Conclusions (At that) based on a split second or a few seconds of exposure to certain things or patterns or events

and from this small amount of data it make a CONCLUSION
this conclusion is called a GUT FEELING

a few challenges you have to overcome

  • You need to understand that your brain factors in all your life experiences when making a decision.
    this then goes into another big topic (Which i won’t go there hehe)
    Point is… You need to codify your lifes experiences

  • Your other option is Get it to start learning all over again, but , that’s painful and time consuming.

you see, when you code to get a program to trade and conclude A GUT FEELING for you, you are basing the code on your life experience
BUT THE CODE DOESN’T KNOW YOUR LIFE EXPERIENCE, there is no function or call to action of IF statement of THEN statement that will take care of this
or a recursive loop

because ultimately GUT FEELINGS are not COMPUTER LOGIC
a GUT FEELING does not follow A TRUTH TABLE .

Have fun with this, I personally did, but eventually gave up on it because

  • I’m more of hardware guy that likes software from time to time

  • My priority was not to write a program, it was to be profitable

  • i also believed that if i traded manually i would learn more, AND IT’S TRUE.

i personally found that to effectively write a program that will trade for you, you have to first know
how to trade to begin with, because if you don’t, you’ll be programming incorrect functions into the program , and this will lead to loss
and then debugging it will be a nightmare

first step
DEFINE HOW YOUR GUT MAKES DECISIONS…
Good Luck with this
hehe

Be cool mate

15

Martin,

Right, I was thinking extremely hard today on exactly what it was to make me feel that way - it started with a loss of 0.13% and then it went all the way up to getting a 3% gain before it started retreating. Guess it was all about pattern recognition. Human brains work very well with anything graphical but computers do not. Yet I still believe I can figure something out to translate the seemingly random moves on the chart into a sequence of code. I need to make this happen - this is one of the most rewarding things that can happen to someone with over 20 years of coding experience.

16

hi bro just to notice something quick for the topic and others who read this too if you make 5 trades a day with 1 pip spread is a 50 point .in 20 days and a year it will be 12000 points only as commission for aud cad and other instrument like , and abit lower spread for eur and gbp pairs but much likely with lower move and volatility , if you make 10 pip a day its 24000 point a year and after cost leaves you with 12000 points thats a 12% for a year with no leverage and if you make 15 pip which is very hard and not much possible to keep it constantly due to the ranging condition and cutting losses quick making a 30% for end of the year , now the more you add in to leverage the more you add to your cost , just think about the screen time and other factors you have to deal with compare to the swing trades and see what is works and what worth of risk its working

17

The software does exist, for example autochartist, that uses pattern recognition. Some of the brokers give it for free when you sign up with a live a/c.

Each to their own I suppose.

If I were to embark on such a quest first thing I’d think about is context of the moves, e.g yesterday and today’s move on Aud/Usd reflects USD selling.

So my logic tells me to think about USD, is there any way to involve USD buying/selling sentiment.

The largest instrument involving USD is Eur/Usd, you mention retreating, that started 10 hrs back, so count back 10 hr1 candles on Eur/Usd, then move say 4 forward - a large up candle higher wit a higher close.

Now count 4 fwd on Aud/Usd - see the ‘catch up’.

Then look at XAU/USD - do the same count, also on US10yr.

The code I’d try to create is within the context of selling USD without news - the other 3 prices were indicating the retreating on Aud/Usd was just a pullback and not a reversal.

(markets are thinnish atm so pullbacks can be more severe than usual, likewise momentum can be stronger, also valid context)

18

Btw right now the US10yr is saying that the USD selling could be in for a pause, whilst everything else is saying to carry on Eur/Usd - 1952 and Aud/Usd - 7790.

Let’s see tomorrow.

19

Check your guts feeling on distance, 60 from 100 winning trades and you can return here and ask for advice. Otherwise worthless thread we all can sometimes make correct random guesses but should we all rush to put it into code?

20

I’d say the opposite, replace gut feeling with ‘the zone’ - I prefer ‘right side of the chart.’.

The more that a person thinks that side, uses his/her brain to create a sense of direction then a greater chance of being one of the 10%.

Can the right side be coded?

There are quite a few of such programmes, they even have a difficult to spell mathematical name, get to learn a little of them and random guessing can become the art of prediction :).