How to program a guts feeling

[Haitao]

right side of the chart

Yes, think the right side of the chart. When I decided to enter the trade, I didn’t think of anything about US10yr, EURUSD, XAU/USD, etc. Only a perception that it wouldn’t go below 0.7770 as it tried a few times and failed every time. Sure, it could appear to be a random guess. But I knew it was not (I could be lucky though). Once I put it in code, next step would be to let a neural network learn it. With hundreds or thousands of test runs, I would know whether it was a baseless random guess or something else. By the way, my position is still open with a 2% gain now.

Thanks

[Falstaff]

Ok - how long are you going to run this and where is your SL ? - just curious

I think it’s probably a good trade.

Only a perception that it wouldn’t go below 0.7770 as it tried a few times and failed every time. Sure, it could appear to be a random guess.

No ! - That’s not a random guess, it’s a basic perception of support and resistance - the same “Weapons” I used to say I thought it could be a good trade and why I asked those questions.

It may be that you CAN programme SR into code - but that is not a “Gut feeling” - It’s a valid attempt at understanding.

A few minutes ago, it stood 77932 - so still up a tad.

PLease note that the human brain is, as you say Good at recognising patterns - “Even when none exists” - This is the root cause of many of the “Optical tricks” so favoured in textbooks. I look forward to reading about your continued journey with this and susequent trades !

[anon81929759]

Guess it was all about pattern recognition. Human brains work very well with anything graphical

Yeeaah, and No
Try to understand this.

YOU BELIEVE THIS, Because it just works for you.
I.T. guys are like this (after a while be get very very very good at what we do) at that point, The baseline for what was once simple has now become Retarded level, and SIMPLE has had the bar raised

we get caught in a zone at times
here’ s an example
i was fixing a mates Computer yesterday, Power supply issue, 2 Capacitors were blown.
for me it was easy to identify

for him. the mere fact that i took 4 screws of the Power supply housing to just look at it, was rocket science level to him.
i cracked out the soldering iron, replaced the two caps and voila… it now works, … Not rocket science.
but TO HIM, it appears that way

he then gave me his mixing board
i replaced 3 Caps, 1 Inductor, 1 Fuse
it works now
to me this was fun and simple and made perfect logical sense
as i did this stuff, i explained to him what a cap does, what an inductor does etc.
he understood it but felt like he was on a whole new level just because he knew what a capacitor now does.

DO YOU UNDERSTAND MATE
TO THEM, it’s complicated
TO US… IT’S SIMPLE
because, we do this all the time that we need to keep learning so it doesn’t become boring.

so what i was trying to say , was this…
yes it was all pattern recognition
but, NOT ALL Human brains work Visually or Logically
You can factor this into your program if you like

but, it’s a fact, Not everyone is visual (i personally am )

anyway…

et I still believe I can figure something out to translate the seemingly random moves on the chart into a sequence of code.

of course you can, but you won’t codify the Human brain (or at least Your Brain) Completely.
but IN PART… Yes, you probably will

I need to make this happen - this is one of the most rewarding things that can happen to someone with over 20 years of coding experience.

LOL… KID IN A CANDY STORE,
there’s no other way to explain it
You’re probably gonna lock yourself in a basement for 2 years with nothing but Instant Noodle’s , a Kettle, Some Running water and some tinned food
HEHE

You’ll emerge 2 years later and it’ll take like a month to adjust to SUNLIGHT
LMFAO

Good luck to you mate,
i can see this is going to be fun for you
Keep going with it

[peterma]

@Haitao

Yes, think the right side of the chart. When I decided to enter the trade, I didn’t think of anything about US10yr, EURUSD, XAU/USD, etc. Only a perception that it wouldn’t go below 0.7770 as it tried a few times and failed every time. Sure, it could appear to be a random guess. But I knew it was not (I could be lucky though). Once I put it in code, next step would be to let a neural network learn it. With hundreds or thousands of test runs, I would know whether it was a baseless random guess or something else. By the way, my position is still open with a 2% gain now.

Thanks

Example today on Aud/Usd, the most liquid time possible is opening of US - price hit a high of 7820 (12.00gmt)

Then again at 15.00gmt - now it’s show time, break higher or a double top - market still liquid time.

Programmable?

It’s possible:-

[peterma]

Btw, the red line is a reference to EURX, the big upreach on aud/usd for the double top is at 15.45 gmt.

What’s that to do with the Euro?

Same t/f, same time Eurx:

[peterma]

Hmmm…, it cannot be programmable, intermarket is a nonsense.

Same t/f, same time - the US10YR

[peterma]

What on earth is Aud/Usd to do with the US10yr?

Programmable?

Seems some old guy did it a few years back:-

Now it’s yellow on the 10yr

[peterma]

So how did it all finish out?

Algos are programmed around levels, pointless setting an entry/exit where it will not happen.

Look closely always at 00,20,50,80 - just 4 levels.

[peterma]

I know I’m getting boring, but perhaps look closely at the little flat area on the 15 min, covers perhaps 1.5hrs.

Then look at the yellow and red, is it possible to see the sentiment - thinking right side, why was price reaching back up? any news, anything?

Or is it a spoof algo?

Is it possible to programme a spoof catcher, can experience help, can intermarket awareness contribute?

Does the action of market algos help? - if you have a computer analytic mind, can you use that?

Absolutely - the very reason that the OP created the thread, he can sense it.

[anon81929759]

But I knew it was not (I could be lucky though)

Hey mate, i’m just curious
AS A PROGRAMMER that you are
do you believe in the concept of LUCK as real thing ?

[Haitao]

Martin,

It is possible that when the market, the fundamentals and everything else look good, some central banks suddenly decide to inject liquidity by selling USD from their reserves for example. That can create a turmoil that goes against you. I was very confident at the time when I entered the trade at 0.7770 per Aussie to the dollar. Luckily nothing like that happened. That was what I considered as ‘luck’.

[anon81929759]

oh ok

and yes it’s true they can inject into the market and cause price to move quick

as for Luck
as you are probably aware, everyone seems to have a different definition of it.
or a different ACCURATE definiton, but a similar GENERAL DEFINTION
if you know what i mean

no worries. mate
well…
be cool

Happy new year and i’ll let you code away

[Haitao]

Happy New Year, Martin. I had a tough one in 2017 and expect to hit something big in 2018.

Cheers

[peterma]

Hey mate, i’m just curious
AS A PROGRAMMER that you are
do you believe in the concept of LUCK as real thing ?

I don’t recall that post, likely this discourse software - anyways as far as luck is concerned I’ve found over the years that fortune favours the positive, I knew a guy that had a saying - “knowing my luck”.

It was a negative saying, despite my many protestations he continued - guess what follows him around.

[anon81929759]

@peterma
that’s weird
this question was intended for @Haitao
and i’m pretty sure he already answered it

it was intended for you
hmmm. that’s weird indeed.
i know i didn’t post it twice.

anyway… my apologies for whatever went wrong

[peterma]

No problem, glad you mentioned the luck thing, I’m a big believer in that a person can ‘make’ their own luck, whether good or bad.

So here is to good fortune to all BP members for year 2018 and beyond

[Haitao]

@Falstaff

Market re-opens at 1:00am (Central Time) with my broker. The trade I entered on Dec 27 (AUDUSD) shows a profit of 6.65% now, including swaps. Hopefully I will hit the original target of 10% gain soon.

[alphahavoc]

“Knowing my Luck”

Perhaps, i should coined it as Awareness of self rather than Knowing my luck to dispel fear for the non-believer. Awareness of self is the knowledge of our own current circumstances.

For examples,

• Do i have money extra money for speculation?
• Am i on a winning/losing streak?
• Is my psychological state of mind stable?
• Is my spouse supportive?
• Do i have the time and effort to spare for acquiring knowledge of trading forex, etc…

If anyone’s answer to the above question are more negative than positive. To me, it means you are down on your luck and should find ways to improve your “LUCK” before embarking on the forex journey.

PS : On a superstitious note, personally, I believe LUCK exist. Be Aware of it… Some define Luck as having a highly accurate trader’s instinct.

[anon81929759]

Hi mate

To your questions[quote=“alphahavoc, post:38, topic:127345”]
For examples,

• Do i have money extra money for speculation?
• Am i on a winning/losing streak?
• Is my psychological state of mind stable?
• Is my spouse supportive?
• Do i have the time and effort to spare for acquiring knowledge of trading forex, etc…
  [/quote]

i believe they should all be Neutral answers
and i believe all the questions can be answered with a simple YES or NO

and you’re right , it is indeed AWARNESS OF ONE’S SELF
In Hospitality we called this SELF MANAGEMENT
And it’s definitely a good thing to be mindful of .

[Haitao]

AUD keeps moving higher. I feel I will hit my target today (10% profit since Dec 27)