I am interested to see how this goes, too. I suspect that most successful traders find it very hard, for whatever reason, to adequately describe their thought processes. Discussing actual trades may be the best way to handle this.
Good luck, Pajo.
Your thread will close if you make huge amounts of money
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/41436-2-74-2740-within-10-days.html
Giordano Bruno told āThe earth goes round the sunā
So, to help you get a handle on this, youāll need a loose goal for daily gains to accomplish the task.
There are roughly 250 business days in a calender year. Weāll call it 230 to allow an extra few days for time to just get away from it for a bit, and enjoy the beach. Or, in case an illness occurs, and you just donāt feel like messing with it.
That gives you 690 days over the next three years.
With that being said, there are some eye opening numbers that occur.
It really doesnāt take as much in the way of daily gains as one would think to get those numbers.
Just a measly 1.0016% daily to get there.
Hereās a daily breakdown:
1 : $1010.06
2 : 1020.22
3 : 1030.49
4 : 1040.85
5 : 1051.33
6 : 1061.91
7 : 1072.59
8 : 1083.38
9 : 1094.29
10 : 1105.3
11 : 1116.42
12 : 1127.65
13 : 1139
14 : 1150.46
15 : 1162.04
16 : 1173.73
17 : 1185.54
18 : 1197.47
19 : 1209.52
20 : 1221.69
21 : 1233.98
22 : 1246.4
23 : 1258.94
24 : 1271.6
25 : 1284.4
26 : 1297.32
27 : 1310.38
28 : 1323.56
29 : 1336.88
30 : 1350.33
31 : 1363.92
32 : 1377.64
33 : 1391.51
34 : 1405.51
35 : 1419.65
36 : 1433.93
37 : 1448.36
38 : 1462.94
39 : 1477.66
40 : 1492.53
41 : 1507.54
42 : 1522.71
43 : 1538.03
44 : 1553.51
45 : 1569.14
46 : 1584.93
47 : 1600.88
48 : 1616.99
49 : 1633.26
50 : 1649.69
51 : 1666.29
52 : 1683.06
53 : 1699.99
54 : 1717.1
55 : 1734.38
56 : 1751.83
57 : 1769.45
58 : 1787.26
59 : 1805.24
60 : 1823.41
61 : 1841.75
62 : 1860.29
63 : 1879
64 : 1897.91
65 : 1917.01
66 : 1936.3
67 : 1955.78
68 : 1975.46
69 : 1995.34
70 : 2015.41
71 : 2035.69
72 : 2056.18
73 : 2076.87
74 : 2097.76
75 : 2118.87
76 : 2140.19
77 : 2161.73
78 : 2183.48
79 : 2205.45
80 : 2227.64
81 : 2250.06
82 : 2272.7
83 : 2295.57
84 : 2318.66
85 : 2341.99
86 : 2365.56
87 : 2389.36
88 : 2413.4
89 : 2437.69
90 : 2462.22
91 : 2486.99
92 : 2512.02
93 : 2537.29
94 : 2562.82
95 : 2588.61
96 : 2614.66
97 : 2640.97
98 : 2667.54
99 : 2694.38
100 : 2721.49
101 : 2748.88
102 : 2776.54
103 : 2804.47
104 : 2832.69
105 : 2861.2
106 : 2889.99
107 : 2919.06
108 : 2948.44
109 : 2978.1
110 : 3008.07
111 : 3038.34
112 : 3068.91
113 : 3099.79
114 : 3130.98
115 : 3162.48
116 : 3194.31
117 : 3226.45
118 : 3258.91
119 : 3291.7
120 : 3324.83
121 : 3358.28
122 : 3392.07
123 : 3426.2
124 : 3460.68
125 : 3495.5
126 : 3530.67
127 : 3566.2
128 : 3602.08
129 : 3638.33
130 : 3674.94
131 : 3711.91
132 : 3749.26
133 : 3786.99
134 : 3825.09
135 : 3863.58
136 : 3902.46
137 : 3941.72
138 : 3981.39
139 : 4021.45
140 : 4061.91
141 : 4102.78
142 : 4144.07
143 : 4185.76
144 : 4227.88
145 : 4270.42
146 : 4313.39
147 : 4356.8
148 : 4400.63
149 : 4444.91
150 : 4489.64
151 : 4534.81
152 : 4580.44
153 : 4626.53
154 : 4673.09
155 : 4720.11
156 : 4767.6
157 : 4815.57
158 : 4864.03
159 : 4912.97
160 : 4962.41
161 : 5012.34
162 : 5062.77
163 : 5113.71
164 : 5165.17
165 : 5217.14
166 : 5269.64
167 : 5322.66
168 : 5376.22
169 : 5430.31
170 : 5484.95
171 : 5540.15
172 : 5595.89
173 : 5652.2
174 : 5709.07
175 : 5766.52
176 : 5824.54
177 : 5883.15
178 : 5942.34
179 : 6002.14
180 : 6062.53
181 : 6123.53
182 : 6185.15
183 : 6247.38
184 : 6310.25
185 : 6373.74
186 : 6437.87
187 : 6502.65
188 : 6568.08
189 : 6634.17
190 : 6700.92
191 : 6768.35
192 : 6836.45
193 : 6905.24
194 : 6974.72
195 : 7044.9
196 : 7115.79
197 : 7187.39
198 : 7259.71
199 : 7332.76
200 : 7406.54
201 : 7481.07
202 : 7556.34
203 : 7632.38
204 : 7709.17
205 : 7786.75
206 : 7865.1
207 : 7944.24
208 : 8024.17
209 : 8104.91
210 : 8186.46
211 : 8268.84
212 : 8352.04
213 : 8436.08
214 : 8520.96
215 : 8606.7
216 : 8693.3
217 : 8780.78
218 : 8869.13
219 : 8958.37
220 : 9048.51
221 : 9139.56
222 : 9231.52
223 : 9324.41
224 : 9418.23
225 : 9513
226 : 9608.72
227 : 9705.41
228 : 9803.06
229 : 9901.7
230 : 10001.34
231 : 10101.97
232 : 10203.62
233 : 10306.29
234 : 10409.99
235 : 10514.74
236 : 10620.54
237 : 10727.4
238 : 10835.34
239 : 10944.37
240 : 11054.49
241 : 11165.72
242 : 11278.07
243 : 11391.56
244 : 11506.18
245 : 11621.96
246 : 11738.9
247 : 11857.02
248 : 11976.32
249 : 12096.83
250 : 12218.55
251 : 12341.49
252 : 12465.67
253 : 12591.11
254 : 12717.8
255 : 12845.77
256 : 12975.02
257 : 13105.58
258 : 13237.45
259 : 13370.64
260 : 13505.18
261 : 13641.07
262 : 13778.33
263 : 13916.97
264 : 14057
265 : 14198.45
266 : 14341.31
267 : 14485.62
268 : 14631.37
269 : 14778.6
270 : 14927.3
271 : 15077.5
272 : 15229.21
273 : 15382.45
274 : 15537.23
275 : 15693.57
276 : 15851.48
277 : 16010.98
278 : 16172.08
279 : 16334.81
280 : 16499.17
281 : 16665.18
282 : 16832.87
283 : 17002.25
284 : 17173.32
285 : 17346.12
286 : 17520.66
287 : 17696.96
288 : 17875.03
289 : 18054.89
290 : 18236.56
291 : 18420.06
292 : 18605.4
293 : 18792.61
294 : 18981.7
295 : 19172.7
296 : 19365.62
297 : 19560.48
298 : 19757.3
299 : 19956.1
300 : 20156.9
301 : 20359.72
302 : 20564.58
303 : 20771.5
304 : 20980.51
305 : 21191.61
306 : 21404.85
307 : 21620.22
308 : 21837.77
309 : 22057.5
310 : 22279.45
311 : 22503.63
312 : 22730.06
313 : 22958.77
314 : 23189.79
315 : 23423.13
316 : 23658.81
317 : 23896.87
318 : 24137.32
319 : 24380.19
320 : 24625.51
321 : 24873.3
322 : 25123.57
323 : 25376.37
324 : 25631.71
325 : 25889.62
326 : 26150.12
327 : 26413.25
328 : 26679.02
329 : 26947.47
330 : 27218.62
331 : 27492.49
332 : 27769.13
333 : 28048.54
334 : 28330.77
335 : 28615.84
336 : 28903.77
337 : 29194.61
338 : 29488.36
339 : 29785.08
340 : 30084.78
341 : 30387.5
342 : 30693.26
343 : 31002.1
344 : 31314.04
345 : 31629.13
346 : 31947.39
347 : 32268.84
348 : 32593.54
349 : 32921.5
350 : 33252.76
351 : 33587.35
352 : 33925.31
353 : 34266.67
354 : 34611.46
355 : 34959.73
356 : 35311.5
357 : 35666.81
358 : 36025.69
359 : 36388.18
360 : 36754.32
361 : 37124.15
362 : 37497.7
363 : 37875
364 : 38256.11
365 : 38641.04
366 : 39029.85
367 : 39422.58
368 : 39819.25
369 : 40219.92
370 : 40624.61
371 : 41033.38
372 : 41446.27
373 : 41863.3
374 : 42284.54
375 : 42710.01
376 : 43139.76
377 : 43573.84
378 : 44012.28
379 : 44455.14
380 : 44902.45
381 : 45354.26
382 : 45810.62
383 : 46271.57
384 : 46737.16
385 : 47207.44
386 : 47682.45
387 : 48162.23
388 : 48646.84
389 : 49136.33
390 : 49630.75
391 : 50130.14
392 : 50634.55
393 : 51144.05
394 : 51658.66
395 : 52178.46
396 : 52703.48
397 : 53233.79
398 : 53769.44
399 : 54310.47
400 : 54856.95
401 : 55408.92
402 : 55966.45
403 : 56529.59
404 : 57098.4
405 : 57672.93
406 : 58253.24
407 : 58839.39
408 : 59431.44
409 : 60029.45
410 : 60633.47
411 : 61243.57
412 : 61859.81
413 : 62482.25
414 : 63110.95
415 : 63745.98
416 : 64387.4
417 : 65035.28
418 : 65689.67
419 : 66350.64
420 : 67018.27
421 : 67692.62
422 : 68373.75
423 : 69061.73
424 : 69756.64
425 : 70458.54
426 : 71167.5
427 : 71883.59
428 : 72606.89
429 : 73337.47
430 : 74075.4
431 : 74820.76
432 : 75573.61
433 : 76334.04
434 : 77102.12
435 : 77877.93
436 : 78661.55
437 : 79453.05
438 : 80252.52
439 : 81060.03
440 : 81875.66
441 : 82699.5
442 : 83531.63
443 : 84372.14
444 : 85221.1
445 : 86078.6
446 : 86944.74
447 : 87819.58
448 : 88703.23
449 : 89595.77
450 : 90497.3
451 : 91407.89
452 : 92327.65
453 : 93256.66
454 : 94195.02
455 : 95142.82
456 : 96100.15
457 : 97067.12
458 : 98043.82
459 : 99030.35
460 : 100026.81
461 : 101033.29
462 : 102049.89
463 : 103076.73
464 : 104113.9
465 : 105161.51
466 : 106219.65
467 : 107288.45
468 : 108368
469 : 109458.41
470 : 110559.79
471 : 111672.25
472 : 112795.91
473 : 113930.88
474 : 115077.26
475 : 116235.18
476 : 117404.75
477 : 118586.09
478 : 119779.32
479 : 120984.55
480 : 122201.91
481 : 123431.52
482 : 124673.5
483 : 125927.98
484 : 127195.08
485 : 128474.93
486 : 129767.66
487 : 131073.39
488 : 132392.27
489 : 133724.41
490 : 135069.96
491 : 136429.05
492 : 137801.82
493 : 139188.39
494 : 140588.92
495 : 142003.54
496 : 143432.4
497 : 144875.63
498 : 146333.39
499 : 147805.81
500 : 149293.05
501 : 150795.25
502 : 152312.57
503 : 153845.15
504 : 155393.16
505 : 156956.74
506 : 158536.06
507 : 160131.26
508 : 161742.52
509 : 163369.99
510 : 165013.84
511 : 166674.23
512 : 168351.32
513 : 170045.29
514 : 171756.3
515 : 173484.54
516 : 175230.16
517 : 176993.34
518 : 178774.27
519 : 180573.11
520 : 182390.06
521 : 184225.29
522 : 186078.98
523 : 187951.33
524 : 189842.52
525 : 191752.73
526 : 193682.17
527 : 195631.02
528 : 197599.48
529 : 199587.75
530 : 201596.02
531 : 203624.5
532 : 205673.39
533 : 207742.9
534 : 209833.23
535 : 211944.6
536 : 214077.21
537 : 216231.28
538 : 218407.02
539 : 220604.65
540 : 222824.4
541 : 225066.49
542 : 227331.13
543 : 229618.56
544 : 231929.01
545 : 234262.7
546 : 236619.88
547 : 239000.77
548 : 241405.62
549 : 243834.67
550 : 246288.16
551 : 248766.34
552 : 251269.46
553 : 253797.76
554 : 256351.5
555 : 258930.93
556 : 261536.33
557 : 264167.93
558 : 266826.02
559 : 269510.85
560 : 272222.7
561 : 274961.83
562 : 277728.53
563 : 280523.06
564 : 283345.72
565 : 286196.77
566 : 289076.52
567 : 291985.23
568 : 294923.22
569 : 297890.77
570 : 300888.18
571 : 303915.75
572 : 306973.78
573 : 310062.59
574 : 313182.47
575 : 316333.75
576 : 319516.73
577 : 322731.74
578 : 325979.1
579 : 329259.14
580 : 332572.18
581 : 335918.56
582 : 339298.61
583 : 342712.67
584 : 346161.08
585 : 349644.19
586 : 353162.35
587 : 356715.91
588 : 360305.22
589 : 363930.65
590 : 367592.56
591 : 371291.32
592 : 375027.29
593 : 378800.86
594 : 382612.39
595 : 386462.28
596 : 390350.9
597 : 394278.66
598 : 398245.93
599 : 402253.12
600 : 406300.64
601 : 410388.88
602 : 414518.26
603 : 418689.19
604 : 422902.08
605 : 427157.37
606 : 431455.47
607 : 435796.82
608 : 440181.86
609 : 444611.02
610 : 449084.74
611 : 453603.48
612 : 458167.69
613 : 462777.82
614 : 467434.34
615 : 472137.72
616 : 476888.42
617 : 481686.92
618 : 486533.7
619 : 491429.26
620 : 496374.07
621 : 501368.64
622 : 506413.47
623 : 511509.06
624 : 516655.92
625 : 521854.56
626 : 527105.52
627 : 532409.31
628 : 537766.47
629 : 543177.54
630 : 548643.05
631 : 554163.56
632 : 559739.61
633 : 565371.77
634 : 571060.6
635 : 576806.68
636 : 582610.57
637 : 588472.86
638 : 594394.14
639 : 600374.99
640 : 606416.03
641 : 612517.86
642 : 618681.08
643 : 624906.31
644 : 631194.19
645 : 637545.33
646 : 643960.38
647 : 650439.98
648 : 656984.78
649 : 663595.43
650 : 670272.6
651 : 677016.96
652 : 683829.17
653 : 690709.94
654 : 697659.94
655 : 704679.87
656 : 711770.43
657 : 718932.34
658 : 726166.32
659 : 733473.08
660 : 740853.37
661 : 748307.91
662 : 755837.47
663 : 763442.79
664 : 771124.63
665 : 778883.77
666 : 786720.98
667 : 794637.06
668 : 802632.78
669 : 810708.96
670 : 818866.4
671 : 827105.92
672 : 835428.35
673 : 843834.52
674 : 852325.28
675 : 860901.47
676 : 869563.95
677 : 878313.6
678 : 887151.28
679 : 896077.89
680 : 905094.33
681 : 914201.48
682 : 923400.28
683 : 932691.63
684 : 942076.48
685 : 951555.75
686 : 961130.41
687 : 970801.41
688 : 980569.72
689 : 990436.32
690 : $1,000,402.19
Now, if you were going from $100 to the mill in one calender year, you would need very close to 10% a day.
So moral of the story is, donāt stress. Itās WAY within the means of most traders, the trick is just learning patience, and not trying to get it all tomorrow.
[Edit] The $100 to one mill was 9.246% to make it in 100 DAYS, not one year of trading days.
To make it in 240 trading days (or one calender year of trading days), it would take daily average gains of 3.8438%.
Not as easy as the steady Eddie 1% or so;)
Compounding is so powerful. The problem is the beginning, you would be hard pressed to live off the money especially since you do not want to ruin the compounding but if you can make it past that year one and keep rolling with the punches it is off to the races.
Agreed.
My goal is a daily .5%.
Iām usually done fairly early, and last week was done on Sunday night with two weekās gains banked courtesy of the Yentervention. Iām done for the night tonight already, and often have trouble sitting on my hands. But it was those double dip trades that used to get me in trouble.
After a year of it though, it gets easier. I see the gains mounting up quickly now. Patience is key:)
Not heard that one before - like it!
I sure hope i can hit a million in 100 days
No problem at all. If you start with a billion ā¦
Good ole Buffett lost a few pennies last quarter I heard.
Jay, Whats going on?
Im 2 days in, Started with $20 now, and got my 10% each day, so Tomorrow, is day 3, and Im siting at $24.45
Dont stop man,
1 Like
Stick with it Jayā¦ treat it like a business. :57:
What? and the world didnt stop spinning how did this happen
Congrats bout your profits!
Now he teaches you a lesson: To have patience. Give him a little time. I guess he knows what he is doing.
Thereās Only One American Billionaire Who Lost A Lot Of Money This Year - Business Insider
Probably he was wrong when he had trust in the Bernanke solution, lol. 
we he said rule 1 to trading is not to lose money. I guess all rules are meant to be broken
Ok guysā¦ I was out Ill for a few days, and also needed some time to think.
I needed to get some rest and recover from the flu, and I needed to decide on how to take this thread to the next level.
I said I would post up stuff as I developed itā¦ and I now have something to post up.
The "How to turn $1,000 into a full time trading business " Trading Plan
This trading will be a bit different than the one I currently use for my own trades I take from which I pay my bills with. I have decided to use this as an opportunity to do something Iāve always wanted - creating a complete, fully comprehensive plan that emphasises not just risk management, entry criteria, and trade management (which my current plan includes), but psychological journaling, goal setting, and a more thorough analysis of trading opporunities.
My current trading plan that Iāve been following for over 18 months now (closer to 2 years) is built to determine entries solely on technical analysis, with an emphasis on orderflow and āsupply and demand imbalancesā. However, I have often wondered how much more effective a trading business could be if it had a trading plan that incorporated all the analytical factors that can be used to successfully speculate in the worlds capital markets including:
market sentiment, market fundamentals, market correlation, market relative strength, statistical anomalies such as āmean revisionā strategies, and COT based concepts - I may add (or possibly subtract) from this list as my trading in this thread progresses.
[B]Orderflow[/B] (ie: supply demand imbalance concepts) has been, and will continue to be, the foundation for all of my trading decisions. However, I will use these other methods of analysis as decsions support tools, with regard to position sizing, profit target setting, and trade filtering
[B]Psychology:[/B]
Trading is a business that can by psychologically challengingā¦more than almost any other business out there. Therefore, I will also be creating a public journal detailing my thoughts and feelings as they become relevent to my trading decisions.There are times where I will see something happening with price action, volume, correlated pairs, or whatever, that may give me reason to want to exit a trade early, move stops to BE or trail a stop, increase my position size, decrease my position size, cancel a pending orderā¦etc.
When these types of impulses arise,[I] I will not act on them[/I], but rather, write them down, and then compare what I felt to what actually happened. This will help me determine (over time) if my concerns were justified, or if they were simply distractions from optimal trading.
I will likley only be able to do this for one open trade at a timeā¦ Although time will tell (hopefully I can do it for all
trades I take)
I will post up as much of my plan as I feel I can. But as I stated earlier in this threadā¦ iām not teaching setups here. Iām striving to develop a skill set of true mastery. Of self discovery, and of guaranteed success. Plenty of threads discussing good setups out thereā¦ but not enough good info on personal trading development.
This threadā¦this experimentā¦itās about just that. [B]Personal trading developmentā¦ at a very high level.[/B]
[B]This isnāt about being perfect. Itās about being better. and EVERYONE can ALWAYS be better.[/B]
A long time goal of mine has been to incorporate a larger view of the markets and market dynamics than I currenlty consider. Well, thereās no time like the present.
So, this thread has now taken on a whole new meaning for me. Itās not about acheiving some lofty ambition to inspire (or āshow offāā¦as both were true) as much as it is about me taking my trading to the next level. A level where success is not just typical, but guaranteeed. I firmly believe that a comprehensive analysis of all the important influencing factors in regards to both the market, and myself, will result in a plan that doesnāt just assist with success. It damn well guarantees it.
Now, I feelā¦ I can really begin
Jay
Nowā¦for starters, here are some of the specific rules I have worked out for this project up to this point. I may modify, subtract, or add rulesā¦ but all rules must be followed unless I am ādoneā for the day. At the close of each day, I am free to adjust or modify this list of rules as I see fitā¦should I have a good, objective reason based in empirical data to do so. Otherwiseā¦they stand pat.
A loss of a trade is not a mistake. A mistake is only a mistake if it breaks a rule on this list. Otherwise, there are no mistakes. The only rules that will never be broken is one that is in this plan. Everything else, for better or worse, is another experience or action to journal about, review later, and learn whatever lesson is held for me at that time.
Then, if this lesson is relevent, and proves valuable to improve my tradingā¦it will be translated into a rule that will go into my plan.
Pretty cool i think 
Anyway, as I develop these rules, I will try to compile them into one post. But for now, and likely for the next few weeks, I will just post them up as I see fit. Here are the first few rules:
[I][B]General Rules For Trading and Risk Management:[/B][/I]Maximum trades per day: 6 trades
[B]Maximum Loss per day:[/B] 3% - if hit, trading must halt until after U.S. session closes
for that day
[B]Maximum loss per week:[/B] 9% - if hit, trading must halt for the next 3 trading days. Review
trades and trade journal, diagnose mistakes, demo trade if necessary, but no live
trading.
[B]Maximum loss per month:[/B] 20% - if hit, trading must halt for 4 consecutive weeks. During
these 4 weeks, demo trading must be undertaken, and real trading cannot resume until
4 consecutive weeks of sucessful demo trading can be accomplished. This, combined with
trade reviews and trade journal review is required before trading can be resumed.
[B]Markets to trade:[/B]All forex pairs, majors, commodity, and crosses that consist only of:
AUD
CAD
CHF
EUR
GBP
USD
JPY
GOLD
[B]no other markets will be traded for this project [/B](although I do trade index futures,
oil, some silver, and even the rare bond trade in my own primary personal account)
More to comeā¦
Jay
Okā¦now, I am going to post up the analysis I did to gain an understanding of market bias from a fundamental and market sentiment point of view on gold, and the euro (specifically the eur/usd)
I will do this for every market I trade, the day before I trade it. If I do not have this degree of analysis conducted, I simply will not trade that market that day (oh! thereās another rule!)
To acheive this goal will require the utmost prudenceā¦ it will require me to be as responsible as possible.
Therefore, to risk any of my account on anything less than the most complete degree of preparation is either reckless or lazy.
And reckless, lazy folks donāt acheive lofty goals or impressive market success.
Without further ado - hereās the analysis:
Interest Rates of the G7 Currenies (AKA, majors, major crosses, comdolls)
1.US Federal Reserve Bank (USD) - 0.25%
2.European Central Bank (EUR) - 1.25%
3.Bank of England (GBP) - 0.50%
4.Bank of Japan (JPY) - 0.1%
5.Swiss National Bank (CHF) - 0.0%
6.Bank of Canada (CAD)- 1%
7.Reserve Bank of Australia (AUD) 4.5%
Notes on fundamentals:
Gold - Factors primarily affecting gold - (in order of importance)
euro instability: more unstable = bullish for gold (risk off trade)
euro union possibly liquidating gold reserves to āraise capitalā = bearish for gold
These two mentioned above are the primary drivers in golds current value. The
two below are secondary:
world interest rates at record lows = bullish for gold
inflation: primarily in the U.S. Euro zone, and Asia = bullish for gold
Summary -
gold is being accumulated by larger institutions as a hedge primarily against euro
instability. If instability increases, gold will likely push higher. If EU countries
start liquidating gold reserves, this will likely put a short term pressure downward on
on gold
====================================
Notes on sentiment:
right now, 21 out of 22 surveyed by bloomberg expect gold to rise next week.
this is the 3rd consecutive increase and highest proportion in data going
back to 2004.
- Interesting to noteā¦sentiment extremes typically (always?) foreshadow
a reversal - at least in the short to medium term.
====================================
COT and gold
Commercial holdings have hit a record net long back around oct 21st, when gold was
priced at around 1650. Since that time, commercials have been selling off, while large
traders have not greatly increased their net long positions. Small speculators have
greatly increased their net long positions however.
Summary: Gold is not only overbought in the short - medium term (1 week to 6 weeks),
but it looks as though the small specs have primarily been fueling this rise in gold prices.
Since small specs are the least influential group, and commercials are the most influential
group, it stands to reason that gold will be selling off a bit.* - it is possible
that my COT analysis is not very accurate in this case, as the driving force behind
supply and demand in gold is primarily speculative (so how relevent are commercials?)
and my understanding of COT is not as complete as I would like it to be, in order to
accurately gauge all but the most extreme overbought/oversold conditions.
Overall gold summary:
Sentiment in gold is extremely bullishā¦ too bullish IMO. COT indicates a potential extreme
situation, and overall market survey bias is just too bullish (with everyone in, who
is left to buy?).
Combine this, with the progress (at least for now) made in the last few days in italy
and greece, and with the rumors that soverigens may start to sell off gold reserves to
raise capital to keep the EU afloat for nowā¦ it stands to reason that gold will be
pulling back this coming week, unless the EU situation takes a big step backward.
Technical levels of interest:
1791.2 - fridays high. Long stops will be above this price. Institutions will likely push
into this at a minium to gain liquidity needed for a short position.
1794 - a level that crosses previous daily lows: not the strongest levelā¦but look for
PA and volume indications of a reversal. May take a small intraday trade here on gold
to the short side, based on PA and volume when price arrives at this level
1800 - major psychological level. Unlikely to take a trade here, as there is not enough
confluence
1804 - the level I feel most intersted in taking a short from. I will put a "set and forget
order here for a short, stop 1815, target 1780. I will cancel this order if gold hits
1780 before reaching 1804
1825 - another level I will place a set and forget order at. Stop 1835, target 1805, 2nd
target 1781.
Once PA and volume indicate that gold has topped out, I may take some short trades with
the ānew trendā to the downside, as long as these trades can be entered above the 1750
price point.
=================================
THE EURO
Notes on fundamentals:
Euro - Factors primarily affecting euro - (in order of importance)
euro instability: greece and italy are the centerpoints, along with italy/greek bond rates (high yields are bearish for euro)
Italian PM Berlusconi stepped down, and change is hailed both in and out of italy as positive for economic stability
italian austerity legislation - quick and complete passing of this will be bullish for euro
These two mentioned above are the primary drivers in Euroās current value. The
two below are secondary:
euro union GDP: up 0.2%, lowest level since june 2009 when it was contracting. Bearish for euro
euro union interest rate: the 0.25% surprise cut recently is bearish, but that does not change itās relative place among all
major currencies (still paying 2nd highest rate, besides AUSSIE)
Summary -
euro has cleared a major stumbling block by pushing out the old guard with regard to italy/greece. Now the follow through
must be quick, and without hangups. If there are hang ups or glitches, we can expect the euro to find resistance. However,
going into monday, the state should be positive if nothing majorly upsetting comes to light.
====================================
Notes on sentiment:
as of last wednesday, 3 out of 4 hedge fund managers were āreluctantly net shortā the euro. As of friday, we rallied.
I doubt all have covered as of this recent rally, and if the majority are still net short, combined with
recent positive news, i doubt others will be jumping to sell right now. Interesting to note, small speculators are net short.
theyāre usually wrongā¦ last week could be a short term bottom on the eur/usd: at least for the next day or 2.
====================================
COT and euro
Commercial holdings have just backing off a record net long last hit around June 2010.
Large specs are pulling back from a record net short last hit june 2010. Small speculators
are net short.
Summary: Not as clear as the gold COT chartsā¦but there is some evidence that an upward move in the euro
against the dollar is more likley than more downward action, at least for this week.
====================================
overall euro summary
The euro looks to gain strength against the USD. This will place it in the middle of the pack, if not higher
against the other major currencies for this coming week. positive steps have been taken, and this should
take pressure off the eur/usd at least for the next 24-48 hours. ALthough a bit wary, Iām biased more to the
long side than the short side of the euro against the USD
Technical levels to watch:
Long trades only from these levels
1.3650 - top of a fresh daily demand zone
1.3610-1.3590 - to be entered only if PA and volume indicate a reversal. must be aggressively
managed and small profit targets only.
1.3560-1.3540 - ideal zone to enter a long trade.
1.3525 - 1.3480 - another great zone to enter a long trade.
Jay
Ok allā¦now you have a few rulesā¦and an example of the daily analysis I will be doing for the markets I will be trading. This does not include relative strength, market correlation, my specific entry criteria and setups, more specifics on how I will set stops and targets, etc.
It also does not include any psychological journaling I intend to do.
Most of these things I will post up here in this thread. Some I will not.
I will try to continue to post a real time trade logā¦or as darn close to it as is reasonable. I continue to discourage anyone from taking my trades. I DO enourage EVERYONE to follow along, and possible see what preparation I go through, how I evaluate opportunities, How I establish my risk parameters, how I overcome my own psych issues, and how I establish my own unique set of actions that will (hopefully) contribute to my success as a function of the correct habits, much more than as a function of the correct method, technique, position sizing, etc. I firmly believe that success is a byproduct of learning the proper information, then taking the proper actions, and continually reviewing both the information and the actions to determine what works, and what doesnāt.
This process of continual, objective self evaluation, combined with rigorous data collection and logical, disciplined actions is what I believe is the secret to trading success.
The secret to successful trading is to develop a habit of constant self improvement. Itās a habit. Itās a process. Itās not a setup. itās not an asset class. itās not a time frame, a moving average, an indicator, a pivot point, or a trend line.
Itās a habit that results from a mindset driven to acheive excellence. To find a lesson in every loss, to find a way to improve every profit.
To understand every driving force, both internal, and external, and how they interact to affect profitability.
And to do this as a matter of habit.
The holy grail in trading is NOT a setup. itās a list of behaviors and attitudes that when practiced with a passion, every single day, creates habits within you that can literally turn dreams into reality.
Aristotle said it best -
āWe are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.ā
NOWā¦ lets really see what I can do with this thread!
Jay
Hi Jay,
Subbed for sure,
Im not going to liter your thread with my trash, but, I stumbled ( wrote failed first, but didnt fail )
just made a mistake, A MENTAL MISTAKE, like 10 of them in a row, )and you cant be anymore on point of the
success with-in ones Own Mind, when the smoke clears.
Its horrible when you HAVE to be in a rush, its a game with-in a game, life or death, and all is real.
I never went thru any schooling for Forex, so each week I pin point something to learn, and then get tested by my wife on Saturday.
But the one thing that I find very hard to learn is the disapline, as its mainly persistance to get better in the mind-set.
Below I listed somethings that stuck out to me, and will be printed up and hung on my forex inspiration wall,
( Yes I have one, Next to my Candle stick patterns, 14 of them ) If thats OK with You, I will even add, " By Jay AKA EreMarket"
[B]
The secret to successful trading is to develop a habit of constant self improvement.
This process of continual, objective self evaluation, combined with rigorous data collection
and logical, disciplined actions is what I believe is the secret to trading success.[/B]
Anyways, my boat is sinking, but I have the buckets bailing and the sails dryin out, and the sun is breaking over the horizon,
Keep Rockin it Jay, and great Profits to you!!!
PS: Im wreckless, I know it, Im learning to be wreckless, Safer, LOLā¦
Money. If you have a definable edgeā¦ (not something that works lotsā¦but yet doesnāt make you a profitā¦thatās just something else. but not an edge)
Then you just need to ask yourself "if my life and career depended on my trading. if a loss today would mean i lose the house. if a loss today would mean i would lose my car, or would go hungryā¦ and I could only choose one trade in which to possibly ward those problems offā¦ one trade to make aprofit today.
what 1 trade would I take? Why am I so sure this one trade will work? What could POSSIBLY prevent it from working?"
Try that. it might help
::::shrug::::
or, you could start a trading journal, write a trading plan, and focus on taking just a single trade a day.
I knowā¦ itās work. itās boring. itās not interesting. it does not fufill the psyche. you will have the urge to revenge trade should your 1 trade lose, and you will just have to find a way to deal with that psychological stress until the next day.
so, itās also psychologically stressful.
Itāll take you hours each day of work, and you may not even get a single trade out of it.
you might not get more than 2 - 3 trades a week! and youāll be working 50 hours a week to learn, study, prepare, journal, backtest, analyzeā¦
and then, most of it will not provide a single trade.
this is what successful trading is REALLY about.
To be frankā¦i do really wonder how many people really want success in trading, as opposed to how many want the [I]idea[/I] of success in trading.
The idea is fun, cool, and sexy.
The reality is boring, tedious, lonely, largely a waste of time, and when done wellā¦ largely psychologically unfulfilling.
Heck, itās one of the reasons i even try to teach here. I honestly get more (emotionally speaking) out of this board then I do in my own trading.
I wouldnāt change it for the worldā¦but then, Iām also a bit of a loner, relatively disconnected from any social outlets, and if it wasnāt for the occassional (often lone) excursion to go rock climbing, I would go weeks at a time without having a single conversation with another human, face to face, other than my wife.
Iām really painting this (and myself!) in an excessively bad lightā¦ but I want to make a point.
Successful trading is nothing like you think it is. Nothing.
If you like writing a college term paper on a daily basis, knowing that each day may (and often will) completely contradict what you wrote the day beforeā¦ for no reason other than the CHANCE to MAYBE make a trade or twoā¦and MAYBE they will work out for youā¦ then maybe trading is a decent business for you.
Try this. Then tell me if you really want to trade.
Open up your charts. Watch them for 4 hours straight. Then, place a single trade. Then, close that trade out when it makes 20 pips, or loses 20 pips. Then, watch your charts (but donāt do anything else) for 4 hours.
Then, go back over that one trade, and write down all the reasons you think it made a profit. or, all the reasons why you think it lost. Write down what you overlooked, or what you ignored.
Then, write down all your feelings about your actions. your feelings about reviewing, your feelings about watching a screen for 8 hours.
Then, go over charts, and write a report for each one that night. what you think it might do. what market sentiment is.
what price levels you may want to enter. what you will have to see before you enter there (if you enter at all). Write down
what your stop and target is the day before you enter the trade. write down why this is. write down what would alter this decision. write down how you will account for this change of plan. write down the new plan (even though it only has a tiny chance of being the plan you use)
and while your at itā¦write down how you feel about all this. write down how you feel about analyzing the market this wayā¦write down how you feel about taking a tradeā¦write down how you feel if your feelings cause you to alter your plan.
and then read this all. and then write down how you feel about reading it back to yourself.
It sounds pedantic. It is. It almost sounds pathetic. It might as welll be.
And to meā¦it sounds like a professional running his trading like a business. You know. Boring, tedious, meticulous, cross every āTā and dot every āiā WORK.
And like every business owner, alll this work, and you may not even get a chance to actually make a trade. And if you do, youāll choose just the very best one. Your a business owner after all, and why wiould you waste your money on anything but the very best for your business.
Then, go to bed. or whatever.
Then, wake up, read all of your reports outloud to yourself. Then, turn on your charts. Then, watch them for 4 hours. Do nothing. Then, take 1 trade. Then, keep watchign for 4 more hoursā¦
repeatā¦etcā¦
The day that you can do thisā¦ wellā¦ your on your way.
Now, Forgive my dour tone Moneyā¦ this isnāt so much meant to be targeted at you.
Rather, at all who lack an understanding of what true, acheivable, lasting, growing success in this business takes.
98% of my time trading is spent NOT actually trading.
Itās spent working. On myself. On my mistakes. on my plan. on my edges. on my research, and on was to improve my methodolgy.
But actually trading? hehā¦ itās like asking a guy how much time he spends āgraduatingā. 4 years of school. 2 minutes of walking to the podium, shaking hands, grabbing a piece of paper, and walking back to your seat.
4 years of school. 2 minutes of graduating.
Kinda like actually trading for a living.
Jay
Ok guysā¦ now down from concept land, and back to the nuts and bolts of this little project.
I will update the profit/loss for this thread so far. I will also import my current P&L from my primary thread. started posting live trades there for a week, and if iām lucky that week will basically make up the losses posted on the last day i traded this (first day? geez)
I will also spend some time and respond to all who have posted.
Donāt hold your breath thoā¦ still getting over the flu, and unless babypips somehow starts paying me in more than warm fuzzies and good karma, I have a lot of work to do first to prepare for this coming week
Jay