on a psychological note. I feel good about moving stops to BE in this circumstance… but I still will need better rules to govern how i manage my trades, such as taking exits early, moving stops…etc.
More for the plan for tomorrow.
Jay
I’m thinking if we can break 1.3776, we’ll move pretty quickly up another 10 pips.
This would be enough to hit my first target, and close half the position.
But…regardless… I can’t lose on this trade. So, not much to worry about now. Still would like to see it hit both targets of course, but i’m now in a risk free bet. Always a good situation to be in.
Interestingly enough…i don’t feel much less nervous. This level of exposure is more than i originally anticipated…but nevertheless… I think it’s likely good practice for… well…no idea. trading is solitary.
guess it’s just more stressful for no good reason.
lol
Jay
closed 1st half at 1.3777.
no point in losing it all now…when i’m 90% of the way to my first target.
0.1575% profit
half the trade is still open.
Trade broke out, but on light volume.
volume has been dropping as price has been moving up from around 1.3755 to where it just peaked out around 1.3778.
This is indicative of possible further downside action.
from a psych persepctive, i’m very tempted to close my trade given this PA and volume pattern… if it follows through as it typically would in these cases, price should be dropping.
however, I already stated where I was entering and exiting, and so far, it’s served me well. Furthermore, the more mechanical I can make my trading, I think the better it will be to improve upon (easier, anyway).
So, no closing this early, unless we get to 1.3792. I will then trail a stop 1:1 until either target or stop is hit.
again, when your most of the way there, no point in giving it all back.
Jay
turns out i just received over the wires that offers exist from 1.3780 - 1.3800. I will start to track this type of info, and then i will be able to go back and see whether it would have been more profitable to adjust accordingly, or simply ignore it and stick with my plan.
For now…the default setting is…and always will be, just stick to the plan/rules.
Jay
Reading your posts you’ve made some pips tonight… good call! Can’t even come close on 4h or daily… PM me on your longer trades! I’m all ear’s!
Reading your posts you’ve made some pips tonight… good call! Can’t even come close on 4h or daily… PM me on your longer trades! I’m all ear’s! :35:
Thanks Carter… wish we both were as excited about it 
It’s one trade so far… and I have a long week ahead of me. I will likely keep risk low until i can build up a 5%ish cushion…then, i’ll start pushing out trades with 0.50% and 0.75% risk. once i get a 10% - 15% profitability cushion…i’ll push it up to 1% risk per trade.
may take a few weeks. maybe even a few months (hope not!). But, I’d rather be well on my way to making a bonus income of 4K a month in 36 months… than having got to 36 months after blowing out this side account i’m running here.
Jay.
P.S. we might just break up now on eur/usd… i’d smile a bit more if we did.
Jay
So…there is potential to move up from the 1.3775, or below the 1.3767 price quickly.
At this point, I have no idea what price will do next. Absolutely no clue. So, i’m just gonna sit with my risk free half trade…and let it either make me some money, or try again some other time.
Jay
P.S. i start gettign interested long around 1.3680…and VERY interested around 1.3660.
i start liking short around 1.3820, and i’ll get short around 1.3829.
46 stop, 120 target
Well, my thinking here for the day is that we are going to push up to a new high not yet seen this week in eur/usd.
so, i’m trying to figure out just how deep the rabbit hole goes.
I see it like this. with the immediate pressure off the euro, eur/usd will likely be pushing up. But, no one is fooled into thinking that there won’t be more issues to come.
and many large specs are already (at least in large part) net short the euro.
So. the logical move if you were net short a large position, and you felt price was going to start drifting upwards…you’d ideally like to cover some or all of your position, at the cheapest price possible…
except, it’s gonna cost you a bit to do that. the cost to absorb resting orders in the market to push into the stops that will provide you the liquidity you need to fill up on the cheap…
anyway, i don’t want ot carry this train of thought out too far here. I don’t need to, in order to understand the dynamics…and to also understand that price action and volume will completely give the large specs hands away.
except without knowing both the magnitude and positional direction of their intentions…its still a decent amount of guessworlk.
Depending on how they play this…what stops they push into first…and how deep they push before price turns… will give some clues as to the magnitude and direction of their ultimate interest…but, a lot of guesswork here. kinda like figuring out the bluff of some unknown poker opponent.
When in doubt, I fall back on 2 things:
-
we are in a daily supply zone
-
the sentiment bias is long.
So, we’ll likely end up not losing much from friday… but we will likely pull back down in the meantime.
I’d love to catch that bottom.
1.3650ish…here i come.
Jay
Even more convincing if we can pop stops up top, and quickly fall back to the other end of this range here. Say a push to 1.3820, and drop back down below 1.3770…i’d bet on good solid continuation of that downmove, at least until we hit the mid to high 3600’s.
Psych journal:
So, the nice thing is… building out how I see price may react one london/us opens…and how i will respond to it in turn, and what it may imply for future price movement, has put me in a really good place.
Almost forgot I had this trade still going… but in a good way. In the way that i’ve already accepted the outcome.
Of course, it’s easier to accept the outcome when it’s “make a little, or make more”
Still…worth noting. Planning out how I can maximize upcoming opporunity can act as a metal respite, and allow me to regain a degree of objectivity on current and other trades as well.
Very good to know.
Jay
The more I think about it…the more a push up to force shorts to cover…and then the subsequent drop to force longs to cover…is the most likely play here.
I’m just thinking about the amount of large players who were net short the middle of last week.
no way they all covered by now. And for those who haven’t…i’m betting they REALLY don’t want to be short anymore.
SO, we’re talking some larger power brokers…who need to get as any folks on the wrong side of the market as possible, so they can get out of the remaining positions, and get in net long (or net longer…whatever)
a push down first off will allow shorts to take profits… no… no. i’m thinking pretty strongy here… the best play is to trap em all.
Push up into new highs for the week. fill up short. crush the market to the downside, which traps all those “breakout traders”
this also makes sense to a degree based on what Carter said… asia tends to range. i tend to agree (tho not as much as i you think so carter) but anyway… price been pushing toward the upside. its a lot cheaper to push price into lquidity for a short position if your already very near some buy stops.
Interesting…
Of course, this could all be total malarky. or i could just be dead wrong. lol. trading. gotta love it.
Jay
furthermore, the size and committments that the early pre-asian session represents today is very low in terms of volume.
Should be very easy to cut right through. Oh ya… i’m a bit excited now. I think I have london and possibly U.S. figured out.
This is all dependent on pushing up through 1.3810, and back down to 1.3770, before we move from here to 1.3680.
if we touch 1.3680 before we touch 1.3810…all bets are off.
At any rate, i think we can expect a choppy, volitile day.
Jay
stopped out at BE on final half of eur/usd short.
total profit for the day so far 0.155% (approx)
A little annoyed at eur/usd…looks like i got stopped out by 1 pip fro the time being.
oh well. such is trading. It was a good trade nonetheless.
Profit is profit.
Jay
long eur/usd
1.3755
stop 17 pips
target 45
edit: correction: long 1.3756
stop 18 pips
target 45
risking 0.10%
closed half position at 1.3768.
stop moved to BE on the other half
re-entered 1 more time.
risking 0.1%
1.3758 long
stop 25 pips
target 50 pips
Possible the last trade of the day. I’m feeling pretty tired.
Jay
EUR/USD short at 1.3740
stop 30
target 50
risking 0.40%
closed half of eur/usd short at 30 pips.
profit 0.20%
still holding half.
stop moved to BE