Initial forex reactions on Friday were muted, mostly continuations of what had been happening all week already. The markets had the weekend to gather reports and analyse what’s going on, and there’s no sign of panic movement of capital.
This week JPY has (continued to) fall, USD has started to rise and GBP, EUR and CHF have started to fall, but these moves are not massive and could equally be driven by the G7 conference etc. rather than Israel v’s Iran.
Oil is higher but the West is now less dependent on Middle East oil than it used to be so this might be a temporary blip. Gold is not much changed.
Iran has not delivered a convincing counter-strike. It is possible they don’t now have the resources and assets to do so, but they could be building an operation (I doubt it). Regime-change in Tehran is unlikely near-term but could be very significant on all markets.