Do you see what I see?? With price making lower lows and Stochastic making higher lows, I think we have ourselves a bullish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe of EUR/USD! But I’m scared of taking it especially with the ECB rate statement ahead of us.
Anybody brave enough out there to trade the pair?
Unlike GBP/USD, EUR/USD did superbly last week. Here’s a summary of all the signals that materialized:
Total Gain/Loss in Pips: +197 pips
Excellent gains again! The system really does very well in EUR/USD. Hopefully, it will continue to do so for the rest of 2013.
Unlike GBP/USD, my outlook on EUR/USD is very bullish. The pair, after trading within a very tight range, has finally broken out. It has made new highs and it looks like it’s poised to go higher.
I want to jump in long, but with the pair very far away from both the 100 and 200 SMAs, I think we could see a pullback soon. I’m going to watch this pair closely for a possible entry around the 38.2%-50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Read about my take on the fundamentals on my blog: The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob
I mentioned in my Pre-Week Market Analysis on Monday that I was bearish on EUR/USD. I also stated that I was looking to short the pair once it pulls back to a higher price. I think the time has come to finally sell the pair!
As you can see, the pair has finally found its way to the 200 SMA and Fibonacci retracement levels. With the Stochastic showing that conditions are overbought, I think we’ll see price find resistance around the 1.3500 level. My bearish bias is also confirmed by the “lower highs” that the pair has been making.
So, once the pair tests the 61.8% Fib, I will pull the trigger and go short. I will place my stop at 1.3550, well above the 200-SMA and 78.6% Fib. I’m ultimately aiming for new lows, but I will take part of my position off the table if the pair tests the most recent swing low at 1.3360.
On the fundamental side of things, I think that the upcoming G20 meeting this weekend will be generally bearish for the euro. Forex Gump talked about how the shared currency seems to be in a tug-of-war with policymakers voicing out their opinions on its recent strength. In this silly little barista girl’s opinion, we could see the euro trade lower if the debates carry on further.
To recap, here’s my plan:
Short EUR/USD at 1.3490. PT1 at 1.3360. PT2 yet to be determined. Stop loss at 1.3550. Risk disclosure.
There ya have it! That’s my trade idea for today. What’s yours? Tell me all about it by writing in the comments section below, Facebook, Twitter, or Meetpips!
XOXO,
Huck
(Originally posted from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob)
For Tuesday, the EURUSD is now showing strong bullish pattern in its candlestick sentiment from last week’s oversold levels, as prices are now rising in its momentum, due to its Bollinger Bands 21 line opening in its lines for prices to move in a vertical pattern. Currently, prices are now moving now at 1.3013 breaking its key resistance level of 1.3001, and might show more strong bullish movement for the coming hours, since prices are now rising near in the overbought level indicating that prices are determine to show bullish trends at the moment. As its 5-day EMA, 9-day SMA and 21-day SMS is now showing bullish trend in its pattern. As its 63-day SMA (olive line) and 84-day SMA (black line) does indicates that prices might create bullish movement and might continue to show more positive trading for the coming session as prices are now being supported by the Bollinger Bands 21, as its lines are still opening in.
In its economic outlook, the markets are now showing slight positive signals, as Euro-zone finance ministers supported and approved on Monday the release of fresh rescue loans to Greece, while Cyprus received its first emergency loan from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). In addition, Greece won its two next bailout installment, totaling 7.5 billion euros. It will receive a tranche of 4.2 billion euros later this week after officials from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) meet in the coming days. The second sub-tranche of 3.3 billion euros will be disbursed in June once Greece has met key measures agreed with international creditors, aka Troika. Inspectors are expected to pay Greece a visit in the next few weeks.
Thus, expect prices to show strong bullish trends as its RSI (14) and MACD (9, 26, 12) showing that prices is now near in the overbought level.
EUR/USD H1,H4,Daily and Weekly Video Analysys on
EURUSD DXY Elliott Wave Analysys 171013 - YouTube
Enjoy!
EUR/USD: Keep an eye for a range breakout, notes the key upside and downside levels for EUR/USD, and sees a break below 1.1019 to remove any long positions on the pair.
EUR/USD: Awaiting the nonfarm payrolls Leung sees bearish potential for EUR/USD if the US nonfarm payrolls prints a strong number. He expects the pair to break below 1.08 levels on a strong US jobs data.
The price is still on the same level in triangle. So I’m also steel waiting for breakeout. Yesterday were false jumps on news, but then everything was back. Get ready for entry signals. Try to be patient)
EUR/USD is rallying again to the upside after a long time! I am waiting for further gains!
Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD in a flat correction
EURUSD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline from 9/8 peak is unfolding as an expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9/8 high (1.2094), Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1.1837 and Intermediate wave (B) ended at 1.2034. Intermediate wave © is in progress as 5 waves. Minor wave 1 of © ended at 1.186, and bounce to 1.2 ended Minor wave 2 of ©. Down from there, Minor wave 3 of © ended at 1.1716, and bounce to 1.1832 ended Minor wave 4 of ©. Minor wave 5 of © remains in progress and can reach as low as 1.16207. This area will also complete Primary wave ((W)) and end cycle from 9/8 peak. Afterwards, pair should bounce within Primary wave ((X)) to correct cycle from 9/8 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again.
Alternatively, if pair extends below 1.16207, then the entire move lower from 9/8 high could be labelled as 5 waves impulse. In this case, the current decline will only end Intermediate wave (3). Then pair should bounce in Intermediate wave (4) before the decline resumes again.
EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
EURUSD Intra-Day Elliott Wave Analysis
EURUSD Intra-Day Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 9/8 peak remains in progress as an expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9/8 high (1.2094), pair ended Intermediate wave (A) at 1.837. Bounce to 1.2034 ended Intermediate wave (B). Intermediate wave © remains in progress and unfolding as 5 waves impulse where Minor wave 1 of © ended at 1.186, and Minor wave 2 of © ended at 1.2. Down from there, Minor wave 3 of © ended at 1.1716 and bounce to 1.1832 ended Minor wave 4 of ©.
While EURUSD stays below 1.1789, it has scope to extend lower in Minor wave 5 of © and reach 1.1586 – 1.1633 area. The move lower will also end cycle from 9/8 peak and complete Primary wave ((W)). Afterwards, Pair should bounce in Primary wave ((X)) to correct cycle from 9/8 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing at least. If pair breaks above 1.17899 from here without making a new low, pair may have ended Primary wave ((W)) already.
EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
