Humans VS Machines

Actually I wasn’t advocating gambling if that’s the impression I gave. What I’m saying is you have to find a way to change something that’s dead even to put the odds in your favor. And clearly there are ways of doing that.

Speaking of which… nice move in the Asian session tonight $ :smiley: $

Shr1k, interesting. gotta roll that round the old gray cells for a little while…


Please don’t take it to a deep personal level. I still like your avatar and the south style plus some other things at you. So, please take it easy. :wink:

1.) If anybody asks me in a thread off topic to come closer, I get an refraction and then that person plays the chick from the country, I am out. Particularly as we are debating here completely off topic. The title here is human vs. machines. That has nothing to do with it what we talk right now in my opinion.

2.) We do agree in the mm section (I call it gambling section and don’t know whey so many dislike that), but not in the signal section. The spread matters for sure. That’s why you have at long run rather 52:48 and not 50:50. If you have a signal which is not better, that entry signal plays yoyo with you and your illusions and the trade starts with the odds against you.

3.) I guess it would be nice to you to read about some mathematical formulas in chaos theory, statistics and other sections. How do you come to the illusion, after a 50:50 coin flip you have a doubled chance to win than to lose? Very interesting here.

I am a guy who learned over decades to manage, teach and code precisely. That’s why I precisely divide into entry signal, mm and exit. If I all mix it up, no analyzing possible anymore. That’s then where the randomness sets in and the odds start playing yoyo with you.

Will read that of Shr1k later. Have a good one all together! :slight_smile:

Look at your own words and you have the answer why you can’t win over statistics.

The facts are: You can win if some market circumstances are right for your basket. Your basket to keep the dropping apples from the tree. But if the tree moves away (I know, trees can only move in the lord of the rings, but letz that drop here), your basket will stay empty.

Letz look at some facts for a long order (short vice versa):

Fact 1: the lower the sl, the lower the risk to get hit.
Fact 2: if it gets hit, you pay for all.
Fact 3: the higher the tp, the lower the chance to get hit.
Fact 4: if it gets hit, you get it all.
Fact 5: the higher the sl, the higher the risk to get hit.
Fact 6: if it gets hit, you pay for all.
Fact 7: the lower the tp, the higher the chance to get hit.
Fact 8: if it gets hit, you get it all.

Don’t start playing with illusions. You don’t need a helicopter or time machine to proof that.

See you.

I think you missunderstood some of what I was saying due to a difference in our native languages, that’s ok, no problem. I was only trying to go in the direction of a purely probability based trading idea, purely mechanical with no human interpretation needed. I thought it might be appropriate here since the title is ‘human vs. machine’ and being a programmer I tend to think like a machine. :smiley:

Hey, Mike

Check your PM’s.


To be clear I know some conditions have to met for my idea to work. the first few trades have to win for one. The idea is to get in to a [B]temporary[/B] situation trading an upside down R:R and keeping with a MM plan. If you can get to that point making 5 pips with a 20 pip stop is quite easy. I am not talking about a basket of trades all open at the same time. I am talking about a series of trades.

Please keep that word in fat letters as far away from me as possible! :eek: We want to win permanently, don’t we? :smiley:

You can tear apart every trade into several conditions:

  • Entry
  • Running
  • Exit

To make it short. To make it short again: If you have a bad entry (less than 50:50), you lose just by that over statistics, as the time and entry works against you. The odds come around. What you do later (running, exit) is sort of another case. I for my own don’t start if I can’t see a better entry than 50:50. I am the winner, am I?

If I start a trip with my plane or car, I look for the entry. If my check shows the car is running with 1 cylinder I take the bus. If my plane check shows me that there is a flat tire, I take the car or the bus or stay at home. Some people start anyways and the outcome is written in stone, pardon, newspapers.

[U]Can you just agree that an entry of 50:50 or worse does not gain money in itself or gives you any chance?[/U] Then you could also let 12 monkeys (borrow this from nev of another well known thread and hope it is not copy protected, lol) play your entry in the trade.

You want to have something better as entry. Here some sort of technical and fundamental mix up comes into account. If you can deliver a better than 50:50 technical entry to me, you become the man of the world to me! Superman and Batman together! Oh, I forgot Spiderman. Sorry! But right now nobody in this sort of gambler club gave me proof of a technical entry like that. Got me? Plus take into account, I am juggling a bit around with the words. Don’t take it to your heart. :wink:

This all is, however, off topic here. You can do anything with a machine, if it comes to numbers. Mql4 also allows sort of fundamental signal take into account, as it could analyze other web pages or whatever. Though, then it is not the rare technical signal anymore. For all the other stuff about machine versus 2 leg life formation, look above.

Thanks and a good day to all! :slight_smile: