Hi guys, new to the forum.
After weeks of analysis I just can’t grasp forex charts.
Let me qualify that statement - I understand what they show and how to read them, it’s just when I analyse them: they appear to be random, yet appling a strategy which should break even for random patterns fails.
I back tested 44K candles in excel against the common indicators e.g. Rsi, bollinger bands etc and they all converged on 50:50 success fail ratio, suggesting that the charts are overall random on a macro scale. Yet if test a strategy which includes no spread and should converge to 0 I end up negative, suggesting that there is a pattern.
Back testing the indicators either individually or together all converge on 0 - therfore suggesting that they don’t really indictate anything. Even applying rudimentary trend analysis (limited to what I can mathematically model in excel) with indicators still, with enough data, converges on zero.
I just can’t seem to establish a strategy that isn’t down to luck