The [B]problem[/B] here is that “never” and “almost guaranteed” are both exaggerations.
And the reason that matters (a lot!) is that if you adopt the philosophy of “if you wait for long enough it will eventually turn round”, your very occasional losers will be a real disaster (and might even wipe out your account).
The [B]underlying issue[/B] here is the fallacy that if you have a high enough win-rate, you’re necessarily destined to make profits.
Not only is this [B]not[/B] so, but if you look at beginners’ trading textbooks (such as those by Harris, Chande and Tharp, for example) you’ll find in many of them detailed explanations, sometimes with examples, of why in reality it’s a much more promising approach, for most aspiring traders, to develop and trade systems with win-rates in the region of 30-50% and to avoid anything much higher.
It’s counterintuitive: it takes quite a lot of experience to understand, but it’s generally right.
[I][U]Key concept[/U][/I]: win-rates aren’t really what matters. [B][U]Expectancy[/U][/B] is what matters. You need to be able to win more, collectively, from your winning trades than you lose, collectively, from your losing trades, [I]without having any disasters[/I].
Avoiding disasters, however occasional, is more important than maximising profits. Long-term, successful trading isn’t about profit maximisation: it’s about [U]risk management[/U].
Trading realities predicate that aiming specifically for a very high win-rate is generally misguided (counterintuitive and difficult to believe though this is).
Many of the observations in your post above are good and perfectly valid ones, and [I]most of the time[/I] you’ll be alright, but not [U]always[/U]. This is why you can’t in reality afford to hold on to positions for ever, and must let winners run and cut losers short. There has to be a point at which you say to yourself “My entry didn’t work out, this time”, and you need to decide in advance at what point that will be and make it your stop-loss level, on entering each trade. Otherwise you will, eventually, start having diasters. Those nasty “black swans” in the forex markets are becoming both more common and darker in colour (and there are reasons for that).
When I sit down at 8.30 every morning (or whatever time), my specific aim for the day isn’t “to make ‘x’ amount of money”; it isn’t even just “to make money” at all - it’s simply “to be able to sit down again at 8.30 the next morning and start trading in the same way”.
Edited to add: and welcome to the forum!
