The New Zealand dollar collapsed during the last two sessions against the US dollar. It was a double assault, as the Fed stayed Hawkish and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continued selling the NZD in September 2014. The RBNZ interest rate decision was lined up during the London session, which ignited a down-move in the NZDUSD pair. The pair broke an important support which caused heavy downside in the pair. It traded as low as 0.7767 during the past Asian session. It is now correcting higher, but won’t be able to hold the correction mode for long as the sentiment is strong bearish for the pair.
There was a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was breached after the release. The downside was very sharp as the pair fell around 100 pips and traded below the last swing low. It even failed to hold the 100 and 200 simple moving average on the one hour chart. The pair after the decline managed to correct higher but failed horribly around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last down-move from the 0.7976 high to 0.7767 low. It is now moving lower again. It would be interesting to see whether the recent low acts as support or the pair creates a new low.
If the NZDUSD pair breaks the recent low, then the next support can be seen around the 0.7720 area, followed by the all-important 0.7700 handle.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies dips around as long as the bearish sentiment is intact.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar moved higher recently, and the effect was also visible on commodities. The prices of yellow metal fell significantly and traded to new lows. Last week, we mentioned that the GOLD might dive sharply and so did happen. GOLD traded below the $1150 level recently and looks poised for more downside in the short term. It has breached an important support area which is likely to encourage sellers. There are several risk events lined up today, including the US ADP data and the US ISM non-manufacturing index. If the outcome comes out positive, then GOLD might head lower in the near term.
There was a critical triangle formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which was broken recently to the downside as GOLD fell towards the $1146 level. The downside was swift after the break as can be seen in the chart below. The hourly RSI is around the oversold area, which increase the possibility of a correction in GOLD. It might correct higher in the short term, but in that situation it is likely to find resistance around the broken triangle support area. The 61.8% fib retracement level of the last drop from the $1174 high to $1146 low is also sitting around the same area. So, a lot of selling interest might be seen around the $1160-65 area if reached moving ahead.
We cannot deny that GOLD might also continue lower from the current levels and does not correct higher. A break below the recent low might call for a test of $1140-35 levels.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair stays below the $1165 level.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The British pound traded lower against a basket of currencies, including the Australian dollar. The GBPAUD pair after trading towards the 1.8651 moved lower and currently testing an important support area. We need to see whether it can manage to hold it in the short term or not. There are a couple of important risk events lined up in the UK shortly, which might decide the fate of the GBPUSD and GBPAUD pair in the near term. The most important event coming up is the speech from the BOE Governor Mark Carney, which might cause heavy moves in the British pound.
There is a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPAUD pair, which might act as a catalyst for the pair moving ahead. Either it can produce a bounce or might give way for more losses in the near term. There is an important support as well around the mentioned trend line as the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.8263 low to 1.8651 high. Moreover, the 100 hourly moving average is also sitting around the highlighted support area. So, one might say that there is a monster hurdle for sellers around the 1.8400 area and if the pair moves lower, then it might struggle to break it.
If the GBPAUD pair bounces from the mentioned support area, then there is a possibility of a run back towards the 1.8550. Any further gains might call for a test of the last high.
Overall, one might consider buying around the 1.8400 support area if trend line holds.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The Euro was seen trading higher against the US dollar recently, but it has struggled to hold the ground against the Japanese yen. We need to see how the EURJPY performs in the coming session, as it is trading around critical support levels. There is no major market moving event scheduled in the London session. However, there is a critical release lined up during the next Asian session. The Japanese trade balance data will be published by the Customs office. Moreover, the bank lending data will also be published around the same time. These releases might impact the EURJPY pair in the short term.
There is an important bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which is acting as a resistance in the near term. However, the most important thing to note here is that the pair is currently testing the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 139.97 low to 144.51 high. The pair has tested the mentioned fib level a couple of times, which is very crucial. There is a strong bearish sign emerging as the pair has now closed below the 100 hourly moving average. The pair as of writing again making an attempt to break the highlighted trend line. If it breaks it up, then more gains are possible moving ahead.
Alternatively, if the EURJPY pair moves lower and breaks the 50% fib support area, then it might head towards the 200 MA which also coincides with the 76.4% fib level.
Overall, one might consider selling with a break of the 50% fib level as long as it trades below the bearish trend line.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar traded lower at the end of last week and on Monday, but later managed to gain bids against most major currencies, including the Euro and Swiss franc. The USDCHF pair recently traded lower towards the 200 hourly moving average, but the US dollar bulls managed to protect downside in the pair and pushed it back up. There is no major release lined up during the NY session in the US, which means we might witness ranging moves in USDCHF for some time. The only low-risk release is NFIB business optimism index which is expected to decline by 0.2 points from 95.3 to 95.1.
There is an important bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which acted as a support recently. The most important point to highlight here is that the 200 hourly MA was also sitting around the same trend line when the pair bounced. So, a rejection from a critical confluence support area means a lot and signals more gain in the near term. The pair has now closed back above the 100 hourly MA, which is another bullish sign. Currently, the pair is testing the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9737 high to 0.9615 low. So, there is a chance of a minor pullback which can be seen as a buying opportunity.
On the upside, a break of the 61.8% fib level could take the pair towards the last high of 0.9737 where we might witness a reaction in the USDCHF pair.
Overall, one might consider buying dips rallies around the 100 MA as long as it trades above the 200 MA.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The New Zealand dollar is trading higher Intraday against the US dollar, as buyers were seen aggressive recently. However, we must not forget that there is a monster resistance around the 0.7920-40 area, which might create selling pressure one more time on the NZDUSD pair. The REINZ house price index was released earlier during the Asian session, which came better than expected and helped the New Zealand dollar buyers in the short term. The report mentioned that the REINZ house price index increased by 1.4% in October 2014, compared with the last time. The NZDUSD pair was seen trading higher post release.
There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which might act as a resistance for the pair in the short term. The pair is currently on the verge of testing the recent high of 0.7904. There is a high probability that the pair might surge higher from here, create a new high and challenge the highlighted trend line in the short term. In that situation, the New Zealand dollar sellers are likely to take a stand around the 0.7920-40 area, as it also represents a major pivot zone for the pair. The hourly RSI might also head towards the extreme levels if the pair spikes towards the highlighted trend line.
On the downside, initial support can be seen around the swing area of 0.7850. We need to see how the pair reacts and trades in the coming session.
Overall, one might consider selling around the highlighted trend line as long as the 0.7940 area holds.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar traded higher against a few major currencies recently, but commodities were not affected by its move. GOLD recently broke an important resistance area, which has opened the doors for upside acceleration in the short term. There is a very important release lined up later today, as the FOMC meeting minutes will be published during the NY session. We need to see how the event shapes out and whether the fed sticks with their hawkish stance or not. One might witness a lot of moves in pairs such as EURUSD and GBPUSD along with commodities such as GOLD and SILVER.
There were a couple of patterns formed on the hourly chart of GOLD. The first one was a contracting triangle, which was broken earlier and paved way for a move towards the $1200 level. It then corrected lower and traded towards the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1183 low to $1204 high. There was again a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, and GOLD surged higher and jumped above the same. There is a strong chance of a move towards the last high at least. If the momentum continues to shape, then the prices of yellow metal might head towards the $1220 level.
On the downside, the 61.8% fib level might continue to act as a support in the near term. A break below the same might call for more downside towards the $1180 level. The 100 hourly MA is sitting just below the mentioned level which might also act as a support.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the $1180 level holds.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar was recently seen struggling, and as a result prices of the precious metals managed to rise and recover ground. However, GOLD is currently trading in a range and it looks like it is setting up for more gains moving ahead. There were a couple of important releases lined up recently in the US, which were mostly better than expected, but failed to push GOLD and SILVER lower. Today, the US durable goods orders data will be published. Let us see how the outcome shapes and affects the US dollar. The chance of break higher in GOLD is looming ahead of the release.
There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which is currently protecting the upside. However, there are a lot of bullish signs developed on the hourly chart, as GOLD is trading above the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages. Moreover, it recently bounced a couple of times from the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1174 low to $1207 high. Let us see whether GOLD buyers can manage to break the highlighted trend line or not. A break above the same might take the prices towards the $1210 level, followed by the $1230 level. Any further gains might be limited in the near term.
On the downside, the most important support is around the 100 MA, followed by the 200 MA which is sitting around the 50% fib retracement level.
Overall, one might consider buying with a break above the trend line as long as GOLD is trading above the 100 MA.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar traded lower against the Swiss franc recently and moved toward the 0.9620 support area where it managed to find buyers. The USDCHF traded higher overnight after the economic releases in the US were on the positive side. The US dollar jumped against the Euro, Yen and the Swiss franc. Today, there is no major release lined up during the NY session. However, there are a few low-risk events lined up, including the US consumer spending data and the Economic Optimism Index, which will be released by the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP).
The USDCHF pair is following an important bullish trend line on the 4 hour chart, which recently acted as a support on the downside. The US dollar buyers managed to push the pair slowly above the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages, which can be seen as a bullish sign in the near term. Currently, the USDCHF pair is trading around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9686 high to 0.9614 low. So, there is a chance that the pair might correct lower moving ahead. In that situation, the pair might find support around the 100 MA which is sitting along with the 200 hourly MA. A break below the same might call for a retest of the highlighted bullish trend line.
On the upside, the next hurdle is around the 76.4% fib retracement level, followed by the last high of 0.9686. There is a possibility of a test of the 0.9700 handle moving ahead.
Overall, one might consider buying dips around the 100 MA as long as the pair is trading above the bullish trend line.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the US dollar and recently tested the 0.7720 support area. The NZDUSD pair is currently trading around an important area, so it would be interesting to see how the pair trades during the coming sessions. There are several risk events lined up during the coming sessions having the potential to cause swing moves in the US dollar. The 0.7720-00 area holds a lot of important in the near term, and as long as the pair is trading above the same more gains cannot be denied.
There is a descending channel formed on the 4 hour chart of the NZDUSD pair, which has acted as a support and resistance on a number of occasions. The pair is currently testing the channel support area and it looks like that there is a possibility of a bounce from the current levels as the 0.7720 support area represents a major support area. If the pair bounce from the current levels, then it might head towards the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7799 high to 0.7728 low which is just below the channel resistance area. So, the NZDUSD pair might struggle around the mentioned resistance area and could trade lower again in that situation.
On the downside, a break below the channel support area might call for a test of the 0.7700 support area. Any further losses should be limited considering we have several important releases lined up in the short term.
Overall, one might consider staying on the sidelines as long as the pair is around the 0.7700 area.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The British pound was seen trading lower against the US dollar, but relatively it stayed above an important support against the Swiss franc. However, it was seen struggling earlier during the Asian session, which might push the pair lower in the near term. There is a major release lined up in the UK, as the consumer inflation expectations will be released by the Bank of England. This particular event might cause a lot of moves in the British pound. We need to see how the GBPCHF pair trades around the release and whether sellers could manage to take it lower moving ahead or not.
There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPCHF pair, which provided support to the pair recently. However, there are a few worrying signs as the pair is now trading below the 100 hourly moving average, which might act as a hurdle for buyers in the near term. There is one positive side which is the fact that sellers are struggling to break the 200 hourly moving average. Currently, the GBPCHF pair is trading around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5071 low to 1.5359 high, which is acting as a monster support for the pair. A break below the mentioned trend line and support area could take the pair towards the 76.4% fib level.
On the upside, initial resistance is around the 100 hourly MA. Only a close above the same could lift the sentiment in the favour of buyers.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the highlighted bullish trend line.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The Euro was seen struggling against the Japanese yen despite the fact that the latter one weakened a lot. The EURJPY pair broke an important support area, which has opened the doors for more downside in the near term. The Japanese bank lending data was released earlier during the Asian session today, which registered an increase of around 2.7%, which was more than the last time reading of 2.3%. The Japanese yen traded a touch higher after the release. It also weighed on the EURJPY pair which traded lower.
There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which was beached earlier during the Asian session. The pair looks like heading towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 148.10 low to 149.77 high where there is a chance that the Euro buyers might try to protect the downside in the near term. Any further losses might take the pair towards the last swing low as the FX market sentiment is currently against the Euro buyers. The hourly RSI is around the 50 level, and if it breaks down it would put further pressure on the Euro bulls. The most important support for the EURJPY pair is seen around the 100 hourly moving average which is sitting around the 148.20 support area.
On the upside, initial resistance is around the broken trend line. Any further gains should take the pair towards the last swing high of 149.77 level.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the last high of 149.80.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar weakened a lot during the last couple of sessions, which was one of the reasons why GOLD also got a push. The economic releases in the US were not on the negative side, but it might be due to the oversold readings that the US dollar moved lower. Today, there is hardly any major release lined up during the NY session. So, the FX market sentiment might remain the main driver for the US dollar. GOLD has breached an important resistance area which might take it higher in the near term. We need to see how buyers react around the $1240 resistance area.
There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which was breached recently and caused a spike towards the $1238-40 resistance area. Buyers look like struggling around the mentioned area, which might cause a correction lower in the near term. The first and foremost support is seen around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1185 low to $1238 high. Any further correction could take GOLD prices towards the broken trend line which might act as a support moving ahead. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which might also act as a catalyst for a correction in the near term.
On the upside, the $1240 level is a major hurdle for GOLD which might continue to act as a resistance. A break above the same might call for more gains in the near term.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as GOLD is trading above the 100 MA.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The New Zealand dollar was seen trading higher after the RBNZ interest rate decision in which the central bank decided not to introduce any change. This caught the attention of the New Zealand dollar buyers. It was already trading around the oversold readings against the US dollar. The NZDUSD pair spiked towards the 0.7870 resistance area. The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) released by the Statistics New Zealand was also released during the Asian session. The outcome missed the mark as it registered a decline of 0.5%, compared with the last time reading of 0%. This did not affect the New Zealand dollar as the NZDUSD pair continued to trade higher.
There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was taken out after the announcement. The pair climbed towards the 0.7850-70 area where sellers managed to protect the upside in the pair. There is a chance that the pair might correct lower from the current levels and even test the broken trend line. There is an important support formed around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7671 low to 0.7869 high, which also coincides with the 200 hourly moving average. Any further downside in the pair would be dependent on the incoming US economic data.
On the upside, the recent high of 0.7869 high might act as a resistance in the short term. A break above the same might push the pair towards the 0.7900 area.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the highlighted trend line.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar lost lust against a few major currencies recently including the Swiss franc and the Euro. The USDCHF pair failed to trade above a crucial resistance area recently, which ignited a down-move in the near term. The recent economic releases in the US were mixed, which sort of halted the upside in the pair. There are a few releases lined up in the NY session today, including the US building permits and housing starts report. If the outcome misses the forecast, there is a possibility that the USDCHF pair might head lower.
The USDCHF pair is following a bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which acted as a resistance recently and pushed the pair lower again. The most important point is that the 100 hourly moving average is also sitting along with the mentioned trend line which increases the significance of the 0.9660-80 resistance area. If the pair climbs higher from the current levels, then it might struggle to clear the stated resistance zone. The 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9709 high to 0.9617 low is also sitting around the highlighted zone. The hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, pointing that more losses are feasible in the short term. A break above the trend line and resistance area would negate the bearish theory.
On the downside, the last low of 0.9617 holds the key, as a break below the same might call for a move towards the 0.9580-60 support area.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the 100 MA.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The Swiss franc was seen trading lower Intraday as the SNB introduced negative deposits rates recently. The Swiss franc collapsed against the US dollar, Euro and the British pound. The GBPCHF was one of the best performers, as the pair traded towards the 1.5380 resistance area. The UK GFK consumer confidence was released during the Asian session, which registered a decline to -4. This release halted the upside in the GBPCHF pair. There is a possibility that the pair might correct lower in the near term. However, any correction could be considered as a buying opportunity in the short term.
There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPCHF pair, which might act as a support on the downside moving ahead. The pair is currently struggling to clear the 1.5380 resistance area, which poses a risk for a correction in the short term. If the pair moves lower from the current levels, then initial support is seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5092 low to 1.5368 level. However, the most important one is around the 38.2% fib retracement level which is sitting around the highlighted bullish trend line. There is one important bullish sign to note, which is the fact that the 100 and 200 hour moving averages are also below the trend line. So, there is a major support around 1.5260.
On the upside, the 1.5360-80 resistance might continue to act as a hurdle for the pair. A break above might take it towards 1.5400.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the highlighted trend line.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The Euro came selling under pressure against the US dollar, but it showed resiliency against the Japanese yen. The EURJPY pair is following a nice bullish trend, which might take it higher in the short term. There is a major release lined up later today, as the Euro area consumer confidence data will be released. The market is expecting a minor improvement this time, but it is expected to remain in the negative territory. So, there is a lot of bearish pressure on the Euro, but we need to be very careful as the shared currency might bounce abruptly any time moving ahead. The German import price index will also be released in a few minutes from now.
There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which is acting as a solid support for the pair. Every time the pair moved lower it managed to gain buyers around the mentioned trend line. However, there is a critical point to note i.e. the pair struggling around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 148.22 high to 144.95 low. There is one more bullish sign, which is the fact that the pair is trading above the 100 hour MA. So, there is a chance of a spike higher towards the 200 hour MA. A break above the mentioned MA could take the pair towards the last swing high of 147.50-60.
On the downside, the highlighted trend line might continue to act as a support. A break below would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the 100 hour MA.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar continued to gain bids against the Swiss franc and it is most likely to continue heading higher. Recently, a lot of pressure was noticed on the Euro, which in turn ignited upside in the USDCHF pair. Let us see how the pair trades as there is a possibility of more upside in the near term. The CB consumer confidence is a major releases lined up today in the US, which might cause swing moves in the USDCHF pair. Today, the USDCHF blasted above the 0.9900 handle as the pressure mounted on the US dollar sellers.
There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, and as long as the highlighted trend line holds more upside is likely moving ahead. There is a key point to note from the chart that the same bullish trend line is aligned perfectly with the 100 hour moving average. The 0.9900-20 represents a major resistance and that is the reason why there is a possibility that the pair might correct lower in the near term. However, in that situation, the pair is likely to find buyers around the 100 hour MA. Only a break and close below the mentioned MA might call for more losses may be towards the 200 hour MA.
On the upside, the 0.9920 is an immediate resistance, which if breached might open the doors for more upside moving ahead. A break above the same could take the USDCHF pair towards 0.9950.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in USDCHF as long as the pair is below the 100 MA.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar traded higher against most major currencies, but looks like GOLD managed to climb higher. There is a nice bullish trend formed for GOLD, which if continues to hold might take the yellow metal prices higher in the near term. The recent releases in the US were not that great, which kind of helped the US dollar to some extent. There is a major release lined up today during the late NY session, as the FOMC meeting minutes will be published. It has been always a market mover and might cause a lot of moves in GOLD moving ahead. If there is even a slight disappointment, then GOLD might surge higher.
There is a nice ascending bullish channel formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which is acting as a catalyst for more upside. Currently, GOLD is testing the channel support area, which is protecting a break in GOLD. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1167 low to 1222 high is just below the channel support area. So, there is a chance that GOLD might hold the downside and trade back higher in the near term. If sellers manage to clear the channel support, then it might open the doors for more downsides in the near term. GOLD might head towards the 100 hour moving average in that situation.
On the upside, initial resistance is around the last high of 1222. A beak above the same might call for a move towards the 1250 level.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as GOLD is trading above the channel support area.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
The US dollar traded toward the 1.0210 level against the Swiss franc where it just managed to hold the downside. It has now closed below an important support area which means there is a bearish pressure emerging on the USDCHF pair. There was no major release in the US and Switzerland recently, which is why there was no major action in USDCHF. There are a couple of releases lined up today, which might create some moves. Let us see how the US dollar trades moving ahead, and whether sellers manage to take it a bit lower in the near term or not.
There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which might act as a barrier for the US dollar buyers moving ahead. Currently, the pair is testing the 100 hour moving average and struggling to clear the same. Moreover, the same area coincides with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.0215 high to 1.0116 low. However, there is a chance of a spike higher in the near term towards the highlighted trend line which is around the 50% fib level. The hourly RSI is trying to move above the 50 level, which is a positive sign. We need to see how the pair reacts around the stated trend line if it reaches there.
On the downside, initial support is around the swing low of 1.0110. A break below the same might take the pair below the 1.0100 level.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDCHF pair as long as the pair is trading below the trend line.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
