Well yes your correct. Yet, that isn’t something which has happened in a very long time. As I mentioned I only trade to gain income. I can’t deposit 2k and try to make 1000 pips to gain 2% profit. That isn’t my reality. Especially playing eur.usd which has a very tight range. Today I have done well so far. I have missed many entries due to prior engagements. Yet, very profitable today over all.
I know it hurts so much to be bias then get hit so hard. Yet it is a learning experience. Now I have my 10point sl, and I am trading with a partner, so he can enter on my reverse positions. As for compounding I understand what your saying. Yet, an unexpected news release which would hit your 10 point sl when your compounding will kill the profit you have earned. Its like trading with no stop loss. Yet I have done it before with success, but the losses do hurt.
This is a snapshot of the last trade which I took. Notice how the first position was a sell (against the trend at that moment) Once the price closed over the entry level. I took the loss, and went long right away. I ended up closing the position for 100 profit and the price moved up another 20 pips and it is still going up. I think with this system I need to add pivots as a exit point. Yet today eur/jpy has moved very well. Yet, always better to book profit when you have it.
2 of the 3 trading days this week have been very dull. Yet, I have been able to earn steady profits. Also notice how accurate my entries have been using the MA cross/recross method. Myfxbook shows you on most positions how accurate the entry was.
In the beginning, probably like everyone else, I believed that trading on short time frames should be possible. I actually studied descriptive statistics of tick data for a long time, after all it appears a deceptively low risk low profit deal. But the deeper I went, the more unprofitable it turns out to be, due to the associated costs. For example, I traded successfully for a while on 1m charts with a strict SL and TP of 10 and 6 pips respectively for a cost of ~2 pips or 33% of profits. The probability of winning in long term dims down, and even if one manages to survive and be profitable, the profits will not be sustainable. So like most smart traders, I settled down on taking intraday positions with trailing stops for bigger profits in order to minimize the impact of transaction costs on my profits. Its after all a game of probabilities and the more you skew the net profit distribution in your favor, the longer you will survive and hopefully be profitable in the long run.
That said, if one can find a statistical inefficiency that could be mathematically defined and defended against the law of large numbers, it might be possible. But then again, it could only be possible for market makers who could avoid the spread costs and pay negligible commissions.
I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting! It is much easy to be profitable off of the higher time frames. Personally I only trade the daily charts and make enough to live comfortably. You should try it instead of playing with the lower times frames trying to be some “mad scalper pro”
The lower time frames are also the world of the algos and HFTs. Every system that I’ve designed that’s profitable on 4H+ turns to crap the lower you go. The spread absolutely kills you.
I withdrew the 2k usd I deposited with this broker, and deposited it back into axitrader. All thought fxopen offered a very good spread (ecn) The reality is the spread during several moments would become extremely high. As I am a scalper and use a 10 pip sl. If the spread gets out of wack it could close an order which should not be closed. Here are two snapshots I took in which the spreads become utterly high.
Luckly for me during those two instants I was not in a position. Here is the proof that I have re-deposited my funds into the original broker which I used when I created this thread. ScalpForProfit System | Myfxbook
How does the spread kill you? Trading on higher tf requires for you to await confirmation. Confirmation which results in your getting stuck at the top, or at the bottom. I have yet to have seen proof of anyone who has turned even 200% profit only trading higher time frames. As the lower tf create what you see on the higher time frames.
The spread isn’t an issue at all. While scalping, if done correctly your spread will be covered within 2 mins of you entering the position. With the broker I use I have a 2 pip spread, yet I end up closing my positions for 6 pip profits. Everyone is looking for profit in the long haul. Yet that is an illusion. Please find maybe 3 traders on the internet who has had their account open for more then 3 years, and has gained over 30% profit. You won’t be able to find that person.
As trading on higher time frame will result in bigger pip profit. Yet, your pip draw down is just as huge when you position is incorrect. I invite those of you who say “I’ve been profitable using the higher time frame” to link their account to myfxbook. This way we can see how much profit you have been able to earn. If a scalper is able to pull off 300% profit, that isn’t something which can be ignored. Nor is it something you should believe should be sustained.
One of the most impressive things about “trade explorer” and “myfxbook” is you can see how accurate a persons entry point is. That alone reveals to your the system which they use. The less the pip drawdown, then the more accurate your entry will be. If you use higher time frame your actually taking a gamble on your position. Only because your using more luck, and unknown factors which will end your position in the green or in red.
Where as scalpers are using price action to enter into positions. My losses are 100% on traders bias. Hoping and praying that the position will come back to me. 2 weeks ago when I blew my account. I loss over 170 pips chasing the sell position. That is exactly what swing traders do. They use words as “Short squeeze” or “Bear trap” to justify their losing position. Scalpers don’t.