IMM Commitment of Traders Report

Latest CFTC Release Dated February 05, 2008:

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The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over the last 52 weeks. A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).

Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. The last 4 weeks of the COT Index are shown because it is just as important to know where the index is coming from. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.


[B]US Dollar Index: [/B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 77 and 25 and trending down, indicating that dollar weakness will likely continue. Not until the indexes reach 0 will we begin to look for a bottom in the USD.

[B]Signal: [/B]Bearish


[B]EUR: [/B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 0 and 0. A bearish sentiment extreme has been registered and the Euro will bottom and begin a rally that lasts weeks, if not longer, very soon (may have bottomed last week). One sign that a bottom is in place is when the Composite COT turns up – which is at its lowest reading since March 2006.

[B]Signal: [/B]Bullish


[B]GBP[/B]: The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 0 and 0. The implications are the same for the Pound as for the Euro. That is, a bearish sentiment extreme has been registered and the Pound should bottom and begin a rally that lasts weeks, if not longer, very soon (may have bottomed last week). One sign that a bottom is in place is when the Composite COT turns up – which is at its lowest reading since March 2006.

[B]Signal: [/B]Bullish


[B]CHF:[/B] The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 78 and 42 and trending down, indicating that sentiment towards the CHF turned from a bullish extreme during the last week of January (when the indexes were at 100). This is a CHF bearish signal.

[B]Signal: [/B]Bearish


[B]JPY: [/B] The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 96 and 83 and have turned over from 100, indicating that sentiment towards the JPY has turned from a sentiment extreme. This is a JPY bearish signal (bullish for Yen crosses).

[B]Signal: [/B]Bearish


[B]CAD: [/B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 28 and 25. Last week, the Composite COT turned up and the 13 week index turned up from 0. These are CAD bullish signals.

[B]Signal: [/B]Bullish


[B]AUD:[/B] The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 35 and 83 and trending up. Conditions are considere bullish until a bullish sentiment extreme occurs – which likely will not happen for at least a few weeks.

[B]Signal: [/B]Bullish


[B]NZD:[/B] The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 47 and 83 and trending up. Conditions are considere bullish until a bullish sentiment extreme occurs – which likely will not happen for at least a few weeks.

[B]Signal: [/B]Bullish