In the end no one wins except the brokers

Also, I strongly disagree with your header! yes, there are 95% losers in forex and only 5% winners, but that 5% is winning all the money that those 95% are loosing! people who can not outsmart those 95%, always blame the brokers, face the reality, boy.

if you mean swap-free accounts, they more than make up for that with wider spreads - they’re not a good deal at all, unless you need one for religious purposes

if only!!! :open_mouth: :smiley:

i’m afraid the the reality is that the counterparty market-makers who are pretending to be brokers take almost all of it

(the alleged 5% making a steady profit is also a huge exaggeration, as anyone with any experience of working in the industry will tell you, but that’s a completely different discussion for a different thread!!)

Actually, of the active traders in forex tonight, 70-80% are losers, not 95%. 95% is a cumulative figure, only the current percentages are relevant.

It’s not out of these two options: 1) You didn’t make money from trading and lost your money, or 2) You’re trying to manipulate something. If we look at things that way, we’d say we’re all losers, and only those in control are winners. But the truth is, people who actually make money and trade for a living won’t say brokers are the winners. I agree with @OpheliaReyes It’s not about 95% - 5%. Those who can’t outsmart others will complain and say it’s all a game and that everyone is being fooled, and so on.

The example with 10.000 units and the price difference of pretty 10 cents (1.20 > 1.30) is another style. It takes very long time. You must pay out 10.000 units same as in the bank and hold it maybe for months for maybe 8%? Is that 10.000 unit all what you afford to invest? Or you think 10 separate 10.000 units position?
The leveraged forex and cfd markets with the so called brokers are huge and the leverage is the main cause of about 75% fails. What we do is not trading but betting on derivative options, and finally the difference of the two options will be accounted between the “trader” and the “broker” who is a dealer.
Anyhow, this is a difficult game (not gambling) if someone wants to be profitable continuously without going insane.
I don’t know, how other people’s judgements (or sure infos) are right about the real data. Many use robots but I have never heard about real experiences, only nice profit lines are shown. I’m sure robots can make some consistent profit. I like manual trading.
The final question is your expectation of the yearly profit and how many time you want to hang on it. In my opinion (this is for day traders) a weekly 2% (constant cumulative) increase is good and not an impossible performance. Let’s say this is the average, then after 20 weeks the profit is 1,02^20 = 48.6%.
In case of 2.5% per week the result is >63%.
Experienced swing or position traders are pleased to tell about the possible truth.

This is not the same as the 10.000 units 1.2000>1.3000 example through months, and uncertain waiting.

Here some math and life, an example. Any instrument has a movement up and down as the hours, days, weeks are passing by. There are LEVELS where or around the price i.e. the market calms down, barely changes but rather choppy. Usually every week there are more than 5 price actions.
Let’s say the usual and useful price actions are 0.5-0.8% change. If you catch net 0.3-0.5% of that and the leverage is only 4x and not 100 or something horroristic… your real profit will be 4x0.3-0.5 so you have 1,2 -2,0% on one trade. If you lose, the loss should be max/max the half theat is more than 2:1 RR.

The final question is that: what is the Win/Loss ratio. If someone is disciplined and don’t want to trade every time anything, doing the big boy, as you see 2% per week without stressing too much is not impossible.

About the 95 (or 75)% losers. Never forget that small traders are 90% of the participants, but only the 10% of the volume traded by them. Isn’t it possible, that the winning minority is fully aware of that we do not trading just playing with market makers, then finally the 15% who were waiting for the real big dogs’ the smart money appears, and they just flowing surfing together with the 90% of volume?
I don’t know Kadhiem what position sizes thinks about but the 10.000 is really a very small amount. The minimum is 50-100K for one order on the int’l market. This is through a bank with high spread ok on spot price. It is impossible and would not worth to open and close quickly few thousands of majors intraday or within a week. It is good for buy or sell real 100.000-500.000 if someone has this amount only to forex (few transactions per year?). Forex is a huge market, but a tiny part in serious portfolios.
Its’s tru there are many brokers, but it’s enough to have look at their offers and ads. On the othe hand, there are at least 20 who are correct. You can check their customer complaints on the forexpiecearmy. E.g. my (regulated) acceptable low cost broker has only problems with non-reliable countries’ clients. This is not the broker’s fault.

Nice post.
This takes me back a number of decades when I was assigned overseas in a tax free jurisdiction with poor global communications, and all my direct salary was going into a Swiss bank account (in those days that was easy to set up). It was also in the days before personal computers were available to the masses and certainly before the www.
I used to listen to the BBC World Service at around midnight locally (after New York close). I convinced my wife that it would be a good idea to buy GBP, sell USD, then wait for an exchange rate differential, then reverse the transactions. At the time, annual interest in GBP was 12% and in USD was 10%. In particular, high volatility was with the Danish Krone and other smaller European currencies before the Euro.
Well the market started to get more and more volatile, and I did not understand that. One day our private banker called me and said “why are you trading currencies without leverage? We are willing to lend you five times your deposit funds”. I was quite young and impressionable. After a few evenings going through that with my wife (who had a short career in commodities trading - wheat, tea, rice, sugar) we decided to take the bank up on their offer Within a few weeks we had our first successful trade and cashed out with a profit of $18K. We thought we had found Xanadu. Not a week later, another trade went against us and we lost $22K in a day. That was a sobering experience that set me on a path to needing to understand trading risk.

I never looked back. I think everyone needs that kind of experience in life, so I like your post.

For any other observer, that is why forum members recommend doing this with a dummy account before you blow your brains out. But I can attest to the fact that losing $10K on a dummy account is nothing like losing $10K in real life. The first doesn’t mess with your brain. But the second one does - big time. LOL

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nobody who trades for a living is trading spot forex against counterparties, Emi! :grinning:

I can’t believe anyone can make living out of CFD in the true sense except on youtube.

it’s not about “can”!!

it’s about “would

plenty of people “can”, but why on earth would they want to do that rather than side-stepping all the spot forex problems and actually trading something real like forex futures instead?! it’s a no brainer - the futures move almost pip-for-pip (tick-for-tick) the same, so it’s almost identical, really

the advantages are:-

  • your broker is on your side, never against you, and wants you to win

  • it’s a transparent market where every broker always has exactly the same prices, because prices are not set by the broker but by a real market

  • regulation is much better and safer and funds better protected

  • there’s effectively no spread and commissions are lower

what’s so hard to understand about this?! :joy:

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Huh? what does it have with religion? I’m not a religious man but i usually get how religion works, yet i cant get this one.

I would agree if the winners in Crypto trading (its decentralized) were more than forex traders, but you can check that in different articles, actually people lose more in trading crypto than in trading forex.

I doubt this too, coz I have thrown everything at gold, even golden strategies, yet that commodity is manipulative. But stocks and currency pairs is the way to go.

Good story, interesting, because decades ago my father did the same with a part of his income i.e. put it in a Swiss bank and staying in contact with a banker. I never like to speak about nominal amounts as the “high” and “low” is different for each people. $22K is now the price of a new small car (in Euope). An average Austrian has to work 8-9 months for it, a Greek needs 1 year at least and a Hungarian2 years. Significant big differences.

That’s why I talk and think rather in ratios i.e. percentages than amounts. The leverage is just a little help, but not a nostrum. I agree with the safe 1:1 handling of most part of savings. A leveraged (margin)account should be separated and not more than you feel “too much”. (If I had 300K total equity, shares, bonds, funds etc. in the bank, safely handled, running w low risk/low profit - I would risk only 30K on a separate account. A leveraged position must not be planned so that it makes more than 0.8-1.6% loss and the win must be at least 1.5% or more. 2-2.5% is a good intraday trade. People lose when using 50K position sizes w 5K account size. Depending on the definite instrument and market situation, 1.5 - 4 x should be enough for profit and good for safety.
If somebody is an experienced trader he can play with this 30K with 2% weekly target, while 270K is remaining in the safe portfolio. This is just my approach and others may see this matter other way. In this example 270K makes let’s say 6-15% yearly and the 30K (depending on the trader), 40-100%
I have talked about robots as existing solutions, but I don’t have any experience w them. What a feeling is to trade with such an algorithm?

Kadhiem, I have explained the math, how people can live this way. 2.5% profit every week. Sometimes a bad week 1.5% loss. These are averages, results of great numbers.

absolutely everything

the other names for swap-fee-free accounts are “Muslim forex accounts” and “Islamic forex accounts”

half a minute using Google will easily clarify the whole thing for you :slight_smile:

i wouldn’t think so, no - men aren’t often called Ophelia, i think

Disagree! I know five friends who make a living by trading spot forex, and one of them even trades cryptocurrencies.

Oh, you mean like this crypto trade?

Context for iPhone trade image

i approve that ,trading without swap and leverage ,these will increase your winning chance significantly.