Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

a lot of bearish fiber talk here. interesting :slight_smile:

German data @ 13:00 (GMT+1), should push it one way or the other :slight_smile:

Or not :smiley:

We got our bounce @ 13200 on the 10yr, 82.90 providing good support so far on the USDXā€¦

May I ask what provider you use for the USDX?
Iā€™m using Forex Ltd (Demo), but the USDx hovers around 82.70

I use this feed: US Dollar Index Realtime Chart | USD Index Real Time Chart

The discrepancy may be with how the index is calculated by the provider (decentralized market so these types of things happen), meaning your 82.70 may line up with my 82.90 in terms of the chart pattern being the same, correctly aligned highs/low/etcā€¦

If the chart I linked to above is pretty much the same as yours except the numbers are slightly out, then it should be OK for you to use the Forex Ltd charts without issue.

I am not stalking the forum that much anymore - I apologize for the question;)
when you guys are talking about the US 10Y and its divergences, are you talking about the yields triad (Us vs UK vs German Bond yields) ? or are you comparing us 10 Y with something else?

cheers

This morning we were comparing it against the USDX, based on what happened yesterday between 13:00 and 16:00. The 10yr rallied up, while the USDX dropped off. This shouldnt have happened. They should be moving in the same direction. Hinting at a possible reversal was in the works.

Also, look at where the USDX bounced this morning, right off the 70.5%. It then spiked back down again (I entered short on this spike on the Fiber @ 1.2870) and then the USDX continued upā€¦

Just short of that 83.00 nowā€¦ Fiber not willing to make a lower low while the USDX makes higher highs, 10yr also dropping offā€¦ (This is why Iā€™ve closed my final portion @ 1.2830). Watch the Fiber drop now :smiley: LOL

a stab down to 1.2820 and then an explosive up move is my bet :slight_smile:

Good choice Jonny, we have that div again - the 10yr is determined to go south -eventually should pull the usdx with it

Thank you very much Jonnycab, very useful indeed.

I think the difference is because youā€™re using a futures contract.
On the barchart.com overview thereā€™s indeed a difference as well between the next expiring future contract and the cash variant, which lines up with the USDx index of Forex Ltd
Barchart.com - Futures Prices for U.S. Dollar Index

ah I see
thanks for the very helpful response!
I am currently looking into longer term trading (demo) and noticed I am not spending enough time on my ICT approach trading (live)ā€¦ this thread is getting me back haha

Ahh, makes sense! Thanks for pointing that out!

Iā€™ve been using this USDX chart for quite a while now, so I guess Iā€™ll stick with it, but maybe refrain from posting numbers due to the confusion is may cause :slight_smile:

I cant help think weā€™re in for a move up as well, based on what I wrote in that quote. Either way, Iā€™m out until LO or NYO tomorrow. Interest rates on Thursday, NFP Friday, maybe not much trading by weeks end for meā€¦ My target is still 30 pips a week :slight_smile:

Ok - I went long at 1.2820 and have taken my 20 pips and tightened my stops. Heading to bed now gnite guys, trade well!

Folks you are doing well. I am honored to see continued focus on community and tool application. I am still reading your posts and find them very inspiring. Keep it up!

[B]GLGT[/B] :57:

Hey konanā€¦

As you may or may not of heardā€¦ the drawdown was intended to show Traders, that begin in this industry and go Live before understanding themselves and the market, how dramatic Drawdown can be on oneā€™s equity. I am using this as a stage to by real world example show how it can be resolved and it need not be a source of stress or fear in a Traderā€™s mind.

I have included a snapshot here for your inquiry:


GLGT :57:


It will be interesting to see what happens the usdx this month.

Seasonal tendency according to MRCI is very much a down month starting from today, also the commercials are at an extreme nett short position and the cot index for comms is at 0%.

So letā€™s see does all this come together.

Weā€™ve got divergence this morning on M15 between EU and USDX. EU made lower lows but USDX not making higher highs

a lot of positioning going on on the fiber. looking for a breakout (thinking to the upside). judas below ar, now found support on ar low. lets see
ote at 1.2794, 6 pip SL at 1.2788. those are my kind of setups as of late. first tp 1.2818 for 4:1 RR :). found out that i need at least 2:1 rr for first tp to feel comfortable. and since i seem to be only able to catch 20-30 pip moves with my analysis, i just tighten the stops, but of course with some sense. and itā€™s working out pretty well so far.

:slight_smile:

Got stopped out on my previous one where I TPā€™dā€¦

I re-entered at 1.2800ā€¦ 30 pips amen to that breakout! Holding the restā€¦

Edit: Not 50 pips, 30 pipsā€¦ typo!