Take a look at all the potential OTE opportunities we could’ve taken for the week by simple swing high and low fibs @ 79%.
On average 40 pips a day pro rated based on reducing size on TPs… 150 thereabouts easily. Missed most of them though. Not next week! >:D
Each time there is NFP or ECB days, banks tend to do those Seek and destroy days.
Also remember, no matter how “crazy” price may seem, it still likes to obey the HTF levels 
(I havent updated these levels in weeks, probably months now)
Guys anybody thats into animals, can you confirm that its butterfly on 1hour Cable and Fiber charts? + Entering OTE area on Fiber and blew the stops on USDX… interesting
Yes, I just commented about this, although Im not really into animals 
We are approaching some interesting levels on the Fiber, right after making a fresh low
cough SMT cough
EDIT: Also, check out our usual suspects, USDX, Fiber, 10Yr @ 15:00 -> 19:00 :o
Just back from lovely Co. Kerry - saw my last chart at close of ICT’s AS indicator … when looking at it at 5.00am figured start of drop would be that spot he often talks about - equilibrium (AS) - 2840 (it was support in AS, so became resist in good old LO.
My bias was dictated as per last night’s post.
Maybe I already posted this lately, sorry if it’s a duplication, I look at bonds from an investor’s perspective, they are ‘clean’, no cross to cloud judgement, so if you want out of stocks or risky currency etc. then a nice easy investment vehicle awaits.
Apparently Japanese investors are doing that just now - look at usd/jpy.
The big thing with ICT’s usdx triad divergence for me is that it dictates my bias ( this is me - everyone is different).
I’ve ‘quit’ many times, frustration being the key - knowing that I could do better but doing silly things to erase my hard earned profits.
Only finally when I employed only one tool, only traded one cross, has the frustration gone.
ICT said in one video -‘you guys are always on about bias, bias, wanting bias’ - well that was my big problem always wrong bias, or worse always changing bias, or seeking bias, now I just do’nt have a bias any more, it’s dictated for me, if my trade goes wrong - means I did’nt trade correctly, or the signal was off, or more usually a bad entry (working on that one)
Fri NFP is a different story - I always watch the 10yr reaction to nfp - it helps me on either the following Mon or Tue.
Just my little pep talk
Hey guys,
I’ve been doin my own thing for a while (as in just trading the ICT methods I know and not really following baby pips)…was wondering if someone (Peterma? :p) would be willing to give a breakdown of exactly how you are using the bonds/USDX/Fiber to help with your trading…or point me to some post that already do this? Is there any reason not to use the Cable? What is your source for 10y bonds? Is there a site where you can overlap USDX and 10y T-bond?S
Is it basically looking for divergence between 10y and USDX, and then using that to look for trades in the opposite way of the divergence for the Fiber? You all seem to be mentioning that the bonds lead the way, so if the 10y bond makes a higher high, and the USDX makes a lower low, that would seem to me to be signalling a buying scenario in the fiber, but if bonds are leading the way…
Sorry for all the questions.
Thanks.
Matty
Great question. This is the one tool I use the least and should use more. It would be great to include the sites and settings, etc so the mystique is removed and this is usable for everyone. I know it’s all their on thread, but a detailed discussion would really help.
Hi Matty and Hogarste.
I’ve only been looking at bonds for the last couple of days but I’m going to give my idea of how it works and hopefully peterma or jonnycab will let us know if it’s right or wrong.
Firstly the website I use is US 10 Year Treasury Note Charts | US 10 Year Treasury Bond Rate Streaming Charts.
So, if the 10 year bond is going up, USDX should be following. Therefore, if bonds make a higher low and USDX makes a lower low, we can expect there to be a bounce on USDX (and therefore a drop in EU).
The way I’m seeing it right now is that from 1500GMT to 1900GMT yesterday, the 10Y was going up, but USDX was dropping hard. So, at some point we would hope USDX rallies to “catch up” with bonds, but we can’t be sure when. Since 2000GMT yesterday, USDX rallied to about 82.90 but the 10Y was falling, and now they have both made higher lows. So I’m not sure if that little rally from 82.60 to 82.90 has “made up” for that difference between USDX and the 10Y earlier in the day.
That’s all I know so far really. But if you compare the USDX and 10Y T-Note for the past few days, you will see times when they are going in opposite directions and then the next day USDX will try to catch up with what happened in bonds yesterday.
Hope this helps. And again, if one of you more experienced guys can see anything wrong with this post then please let us know. Nothing more annoying then a newbie giving out bad advice thinking they know what they’re talking about.
based on that, i have a theory what could cause the delayed reaction in usdx.
as you said the initial move can come from the “recycling” of dollars from us equities into us bonds. now, this indicates “risk off”, thus strong usdx and weak cable/fiber. now, “risk off” (or “risk on” for that matter) is a general market state, not just for the us. since the big boys tend to have the same views, other banks and funds will have the same view. but they, unlike the us entities, will have a lot invested in europe (just like us entities have “too much” invested in the us, called “home bias” in the field of behavioral finance). the non-us people will now try to get rid of some of their risky assets (like stocks), which are denominated in euro. but they are not dumb, they will only sell at a “good price”, meaning they wont always hit the sell button right away (as long as there is no real crisis, they wont start a fire sale, since this will cause big losses), it can take some time over the day until the assets are finally sold (my gf is working as a fund manager and that is actually how it works). and exactly this can cause the lag in the reaction on fiber/cable, which seems to be from a couple of hours to early the next day. the time period would just make perfect sense.
Yes I agree - good point - that’s what I was getting at when I added the further point …
[I]"… If we assume that all market players generally follow the herd (particularly flights to perceived safety) any mismatch between USDx and US bonds (btw I am only speaking of the 10yr as I have not looked at any other term bonds) might be short lived as the move to bonds from equities is taken up by holders of non US$ denominated assets switching holdings and thereby impacting the USDx…"[/I]
Its about timing and ‘reading the story of the market’ as someone very succinctly put it recently on something I read. Must be useful having your gf as a fund manager … must get the wife out to work !!
The real question is, would she offer you a job? 
she just started there half a year ago and does not have the authority to offer anyone a job however, once i feel comfortable enough and once i can show her a nice track record, she will consider “investing” in me. however, since we are both not stupid, i told her she should see me as a risky asset, with high risk and very high possible return and i should only be a very small part of her overall portfolio. also i’m nice for diversification since i am not correlated to any market.
she agreed
cant say fairer than that
Sounds like a great allegory on all relationships - watch out for too many drawdowns and pullbacks she may well just dump your portfolio for good and head for safety with a put option on a less risky asset base - you can tell its Friday eh…
she agreed
why would she get a put option on a less risky asset base. a put on a risky asset would make much more sense though, wouldn’t it
btw anyone else long cable/fiber from big fig?
Well there you go - she should hire you right now!!
haha, you’re funny
ah, btw wanted to share something.
how awesome is myfxbook?? i looked at some stats from my trading since mid september last year. had some hard times, especially at the beginning. overall i’m still down, but it always did not feel like it. so i was asking myself, what is wrong. i looked at the “summary” tab, which shows trades per pair. i have no freaking clue why and when (must have been in the very beginning…), but i traded a LOT of pairs, not just cable and fiber… i think i tried some swing trading and another method in october last year if i remember correctly. so now, i looked at only the fiber and cable gains/losses. and guess what, actually i’m up 5% if i would have JUST traded cable and fiber (which i normally do and which is the core of all i know about trading…).
but since i cant even remeber the trades on the other pairs, i definitely stopped doing that crap. and my account is starting to grow. hopefully it will be in profit overall soon, erasing all the losses of the other pairs.
this also has been a big confident boost, because i did not expect to see that. just out of the blue “hey, you’re profitable”
