Any you guys learning market correlation - keep an eye on gold to see how it is reacting to nfp.
Well that was fun, I took a short @ 1.3025 (just above my noted 1.3020 level).
Priced pushed up a lot more than I expected, but it is NFP after all. I was hinting at a short position yesterday (see old post) and again the 10Yr was the giveaway (so far). Horrible news comes out, USDX bombs, Fiber rockets, as does the 10Yr. Whos going to win? 
Good for a 40 pip scalp if youâd call that a scalp, price can do what it likes now, but a deep retracement would nice
Ideally Iâd have been long this morning from the Figure (Im guessing TopFroxx was :)) but I didnt trade it.
Iâm struggling with it Perterma, Iâm holding out trading until I understand the wider market. Go back to day 2 of 25 days. Do you want to collaborate on some notes?
yeah, got out early though as i was seeing some weakness and i normally dont trade nfp. so just 2% up today instead of 8 or so, but hey, profit nevertheless 
and regarding your deep retracement thingy, look at the last nfps, a retracement to at least 1.2950 could be a nice target for next week, when it will possibly retrace. will have a closer look at the last couple of nfps to see what happened, but at least at the last one i think there was a retracement in the beginning of the following week to get those orders left out between the start of the heavy move and the ending
The 10Yr from a purely S&R perspective:
Ran up this morning while USDX ran down, retested old highs then away it wentâŚ
One of my reasons for getting short, the other was that we had some SMT divergence between USDX and Fiber between the lows/highs formed on the 2nd April. We were also up in that OTE zone, granted we pushed through it (so maybe more upside in the works on the Fiber?). I was expecting 1.3050 to hold if we are remaining bearish, from a MS perspectiveâŚ
I had a long at 2915 and closed at 2985 so 70 pipsâŚnot a bad nfp day today! Looking forward to the next week!
A great article I read on stop hunting:
âwhy do dealers gun for stops, that doesnât seem very nice to me?â.
Lets look at an example of an interbank dealer who is looking at his order book and sees stop-loss orders to sell 200 million EUR/USD at rates below 1.3700 down to 1.3690. The current rate is 1.3730 say. He has some options:
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He can do nothing. He waits until the market breaks below 1.3700 and then he starts selling. The danger with taking this course of action is that other dealers have similar order boards and the market gets fast below the level. The customers might be filled 10 pips or more below their stipulated level and they would not be happy. Plus the dealer doesnât earn anything from this.
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He sells 20 at 1.3730. The market starts drifting lower so he sells another 20 (if the market goes up he cuts the 20 short position for a small loss). He may buy 10 back but keep himself 20 or 30 short. Lets say his average entry rate for the 30 short is at 1.3730. When the market breaks below 1.3710, he sells another 30 and then he sells 100 at 1.3700 to ensure that the market trades at a rate below 1.3700. Then he sells the balance of the orders. He will have sold 200 EUR/USD at an average rate of 1.3706 say. He will fill the stop-loss sell orders on average at 1.3696, with each customer being filled at their stipulated level. The dealer will have ensured that the customers cannot complain about slippage and at the same time heâll have earned $200,000.
All dealers will follow the second course of action which in essence means that all stops are targeted.
There is sometimes a downside risk in that the dealer may sell 100 EUR/USD but the market suddenly stalls at 1.3700 due to a barrier or a big Sovereign or corporate buyer. If this happens the dealer must act very quickly to start covering his shorts before the market races higher.
Regards
Andrew
Everyone notice that yesterdayâs FIBER down move was the 161.8 retracement of the prior day h/l. Itâs amazing how this gets orchestrated. Sorry if someone already mentioned⌠very busy at work and am behind in my reading.
Jonnycab,
Which charting service are you using for your 10 Year T-Note?
That image is from IG Markets. ETX Capital also have a feed for Bonds/T-Notes (peterma uses this one I think).
Thank you. Checking those two out.
Trying to understand the bond discussion here and watching todayâs 10 year and USDx which are not in sync. Hope this means there will be a USDx catch up next week to follow the 10 year and therefore the other currencies fall. Re the timing, this could be Monday or Tuesday LO? Am I right?
Could you guide me how do you track the USDx and Bond diveregences using the online chart? Are you using the overlay option? Thanks
Gold influences Bonds, Bonds influence stocks, stock markets influences âŚ
BOJ recent announcement influencing US bonds (positive), and usd/jpy(negative) and Japanese stock market (positive).
Reason: Japanese govt WILL (over next 2 years) buy their own bonds, demand up, price up, yield down - Japanese investors peeved, money going out of yen, into USD bonds, now USD bonds going up, yields going down âŚusd/jpy up (out of yen and into usd for the bonds)
NFP (negative numbers) ⌠usd negative (more usd printing?) gold positive (more usd printing?)
Itâs just traders trying to second guess what investors may do - fundamentals are great from an investorâs view.
Strangely, last night I happened to be reading L. Williams book â long term etc.â and came onto a chapter dealing with this very concept.
Williams states â Price never rallies because it is rallying âŚsymptom of a cause ⌠detect that causeâ - he is referencing his view that he is trading a âprimary marketâ often bonds, he is looking for the âsecondary marketâ to compare the primary with, he created an indicator for it called âWillspreadâ , he used this in the mid 80âs, is adamant that it is still as relevant today - maybe some of you guys could investigate?
The main thing is that ICT is right when he says that smt divergence in a correlated (influenced) market is a heads up to us retail traders of smart money activity, in his words it is generic, always was there and likely always will be.
All the very experienced analysts are saying that the euro will continue to rise and the usd to fall.
I have learned to listen to and learn from, but to make my own mind up on all those analysts.
Those same analysts have explained in great detail why it is that we have the last few days of pa unfold, similarily I listen and learn.
It is impossible to back test smt div, it is very possible to forward test it - so Iâll be watching LO on Monday and Tuesday with interest.
Now to the late, late show - we have Tom Cruise as a guest
Thank you Peterma! That helps
Me again, Tom Cruise over, meant to mention anyone see the famous âpauseâ again, visible on 15 min or 1 hr.
Same rules, short series of lower lows and lower highs - so you are sitting in front of your chart - this thing has gone so, so high -look it hasânt even the legs to get above the 50, look itâs making lower highs - it HAS to go down, I see lower lows - even cable is doing the same thing - NFP now due - sell order quick before the big fall.
Every time I see that I think of that thing about the fisherman wiggling the bait.
I see them. I have started watching these clean levels since you mentioned it
[QUOTE=âjinirav75;475902â]I see them. I have started watching these clean levels since you mentioned it[/QUOTE]
And I think I am getting the aha moments these daysâŚso excited to learn new stuff every dayâŚglad I am part of this great thread! Thanks to all especially Peterma and johnycab!
Jinirav, no thanks due to me, thank you instead for provoking thought.