When its outside “core” hours, its always better to sit on your hands until LO/NYO the next day. Yes, you may have been right and could be +50 pip in the black, but for me personally, being right and losing nothing is better than taking a 2% hit (or whatever your risk is) because price is moving one way only (catching falling knives comes to mind :)).
Also, another tip that might be useful, what does HTF Market Structure tell you? To me, its bullish (judas this morning, new high, took out some swings on the way down, but maintained the 1.3040 level formed when filling Sundays gap). This gives me my bias right there, or should I say, provides significant weight when it comes to forming my intraday bias.
So now Im thinking, what levels to the downside are are we going to buy at?
This is when we get into HTF Fibs & S&R lines. Then we can setup our limit orders or price alerts.
Once you’ve established this bias and plan, stick to it and add: NO counter trend scalping…
If price runs away from you, reevaluate whats going on and if you’re still none the wiser, stay out.
Just some thoughts that might help with the discipline aspect of trading, feel free to ignore them completely
Very true. I didn’t listen and lost my shirt, luckily I have another. Just proves to me that there are greedy little BI@$HES pushing the market where they want. This is a good thing because if they are doing this there are ways to use their greed against them. Now I just need to figure that out.
Big (00) figure level (c13200) being defended into today’s London fix at 4PM (GMT) because banks quote dealing prices to their clients based on the closing price of a currency at a particular fix is a legitimate objective. Of course they move price around to get the best quotes/deals for both themselves and their clients.
Also, option expiries for today’s 1000am NY cut at c13050/90/95 required their attention. What macro level did they defend since Tokyo close - c13055.
This is a good thing because if they are doing this there are ways to use their greed against them. Now I just need to figure that out.
What does the chart tell you ?
It’s profit taking down to the c13150 level because day traders jumped on the move and pushed price close to current month highs. The fast money isn’t going to hang around. I can’t blame them.
Minotaur, Thank you for taking the time to respond. I do have a couple of questions.
So I understand the banks quote at 18:00 GMT? So how does running the price up get them and their clients better quotes?
Aren’t there options expiring in the opposite direction? How can we know before what options and levels they will be looking to get into or out of the money?
Also, option expiries for today’s 1000am NY cut at c13050/90/95 required their attention. What macro level did they defend since Tokyo close - c13055.
What does the chart tell you ?
It’s profit taking down to the c13150 level because day traders jumped on the move and pushed price close to current month highs. The fast money isn’t going to hang around. I can’t blame them.
I see price going down to yesterday Asia high and bouncing. Then running up when the news was strong for the $.
Again thank you for the information but how would someone that is not on the floor know where the options are and the levels likely defended?
ty
Bill
Besides 1.32, 1.3300/20 looks interesting, old high, old lows of a consolidation (4H TF), not much resistance in the way up to those levels. A bit of divergence between EURUSD and USDX going on at the minute, so perhaps we’ll correct before pushing higher…
Lots of big news events coming over the next few days, should provide ample volatility!
Suspect that we will first have a drop down, as in end Level 1 - refer to post #845. before heading higher.
Both moves are potential trades, although the latter the best R:R imho.
Also suspect that this dip, will be substantial enough to take out many current Long Stops.
LOKZ will most probably reveal most (eg via divergence) of what is about to transpire.
So far the PA seems in the Level 1 of the Market Maker Profile, so I’m very interested whether or not today continues into Level 2, ie as set out in #845
This is the time of day where large money flows collide in the FX market. The liquidity available can be endless.
So how does running the price up get them and their clients better quotes?
The bank is obligated to fill the client where the market is “fixed” at the hour. The clients want it that way.
This is how it usually works:
Corporates put in their orders for transactions to be filled at the Fixing rate
Banks collate these orders and y’day there was a net interest to buy Euros (y’days EUR/USD price move into London fixing) at the fixing rate.
They obviously want to sell (the Euros they bought in the market) to their customers at the highest possible price so they try to drive the market higher into the Fix. It pays the executing bank to move the market to fix the rate at an extreme on the hour. Many investment managers also pass fix orders for hedging purposes.
As soon as the Fixing is over, the energy falls out of the market and price pops back (look at y’days price behavior).
Aren’t there options expiring in the opposite direction? How can we know before what options and levels they will be looking to get into or out of the money?
Prices tend to gravitate toward the strike price at the time of expiry because each side of the trade has to actively hedge their exposure. All the jockeying back and forth tends to draw prices close to the strike as each side tries to position themselves for the moment when the option is exercised or expires out of the money. This action is most noticeable in the run-up to 10AM NY time when the vast majority of options expire.
Again thank you for the information but how would someone that is not on the floor know where the options are and the levels likely defended?
Ask yourself - W.H.E.R.E would they hedge their exposure (y’days move) ? - when you look at your chart.
The closest big figure (00) is c13100 to the downside. Price touched c13150 since deflating. Keep the above in mind and watch price playing out until 10AM NY time option cut.
Funny day in terms of PA, holidays to blame for that I suppose. I went long around 1.3175, trailing my stop as price just drifted up. Took some profits around 1.3210 and then was stopped out around 1.3220 after the spike up during NYO and subsequent retrace. Took a scalp short on the retest of the 1.3220 based on the big push up on the 10Yr around about the same time the new items appeared. Took the majority of the position off around 1.3190. Will let the rest of it ride to see what happens (stopped out no doubt!)
The 5M TF is looking very much like a MMP sell (so very short-term). Perhaps we’ll see AR low retested and stops taken there, or 1.3150 figure…
Not really sure we’ll see much downside before the ECB rates announcement tomorrow and NFP on Friday…
From yesterday’s discussion I was still quite bullish on the EURUSD. We were very close to those highs from yesterday. I figure the smart money will scoop any orders around this level before sending price down. I took the long around 8:00 GMT I think. I’m not in front the charts at the minute. It was before we hit the AR high. I kept trailing the stop behind, price just kept running up without any sort of retracement at all, MS was still bullish so I let it run.
Also this morning, price seemed reluctant to make a break below the AR low, it was hovering around that 1.3170 level then just wandered its way up without any real conviction, as said, funny action today.
EDIT: also, stopped out on that final portion short, knew that was gonna happen! LOL
i had this feeling for quite some time, but now im pretty sure you are just a troll and i think i get your point that you are trying to make with this “character”, whoever you really are.
and i think i get your point that you are trying to make with this “character”, whoever you really are.