We present to you the [B]daily updated section[/B] of market analysis prepared by professional analysts of [B]InstaForex Company.[/B] Each of the specialists represented in this section, carries out analytical reviews in accordance with his/her vision of the current situation on foreign exchange and other markets. However, the outlooks below are only recommendations and not instructions to any actions; they contain analysis of the current situation on the currency market. In some cases the analysts’ opinions to changes in the current market situation can differ, in this way, we recommend you to follow the publications of only one analyst, who in your view most clearly and correctly evaluates the situation on the international Forex market.
This week the pair started by holding the 20Wsma.The weekly support level existed at 172.34 levels. Until the pair closes above the 20Wsma, we expect some up move to be under this pair. In yesterday’s session, the pair hit the 50Dsma and closed below that. The daily stochastics is indicating the sell mode. In today’s session the pair opened with support at 100Dsma and moving forward. The pair has support at the 172.40, 172, and 171.60 levels for the near term; 171.25 and 170.47 are the support levels for a short term. Bulls must close above 172.89 to make a high at the 174 level in the near term.
Support is at172, 171.25, and 170.47.
Resistance is at 172.90, 173.50, and 174.
Intraday cmp 172.66.
For an intraday basis, the pair is facing strong resistance at 34hesma or 172.35 and it made a hourly top at 172.74. The hourly Stochstics (h4) is indicating a pull back. The price is closed and trading below the hourly key moving averages 12ema and 35DEMA. It results negatively in the hourly trading system. Until the price closes above 173.10, bears try to take the pair to lower levels. We strongly recommend buying above 173.10, until then sellers mint the money.
Resistance is at 172.75, 172.86, and 173.10
General overview for 05/09/2014 09:15 CET
The corrective cycle might be regarded as completed. The demand zone where buyers are present is between the levels of 1.0809 - 1.0839. Nevertheless, the market is still below the weekly pivot. Besides, breakout higher is needed to confirm that the bullish impulsive wave progression is taking place. Please notice, that any violation of the level of 1.0819 invalidates the impulsive red count and puts the alternative count in play. That means lower prices will be seen with projected target levels at 1.0740.
Support/Resistance:
1.0809 - 1.0839 - Demand Zone
1.0819 - Intraday Support |Invalidation Level |
1.0887 - Weekly Pivot
1.0907 - Intraday Resistance
1.0945 - Intraday Resistance
1.0965 - WR1
Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should still be in play with SL lowered to the level of 1.0940 and TP at the level of 1.0745. However, please notice that the lower time frames are not supporting the current wave progression and any breakout above 1.0940 is bullish, so buy orders should be opened instead.
The pair held the 50Msma and started moving higher. USD/CHF has short-term support at 0.9175 (50Msma) and 0.9135. On a closing basis, until the price stands above these levels, the pair favors to buying on dips towards 0.94, 0.9456, and 0.95 in the short term. When a break and close is below 0.9135, USD/CHF will look for the nearest support at 0.90 and 0.8975. The pair opened with a minor bullish sign, but the daily and hourly oscillators are indicating that USD/CHF has entered an extremely overbought area. I hope some profit booking is in place. The pair has resistance at 0.9330 for the hourly trading perspective. We recommended selling at the cmp 0.9325. It looks weak below 0.9310. Safe trades can sell below 0.9310 with the targets at 0.9295, 0.9275, 0.9255, and 0.9240.
The pair has strong resistance at 0.94 (200Dema).
Intraday - sell at cmp, safe traders can sell below 0.9310.
Fundamental Overview: GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the negative JPY sentiment. The recent data pointing to a struggling Japanese economy suggest the Bank of Japan may yet provide more stimulus increasing demand from Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales and uncertainty related to the referendum for Scotland’s independence. Bank of England Gov. Carney warned on Tuesday that a currency union between England and independent Scotland would be incompatible with sovereignty. Besides, we should note wider-than-expected U.K. July global goods trade deficit of GBP10.2 billion (versus forecast GBP9.3 billion) and sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But GBP sentiment is soothed as Mr. Carney also signaled that a rate hike could be expected in spring; U.K. July industrial production is increased stronger-than-expected 0.5% on month and +1.7% on year (versus forecast +0.3% on month, +1.4% on year).
Technical Comment: The daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are turning bullish but five and 15-day moving averages are still meandering sideways.
Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.75 and the second target at 172.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 169.25. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 168.55. The pivot point is at 170.50.
Resistance levels:
171.75
172.35
172.75
Support levels:
170
169.25
168.55
General overview for 15/09/2014 09:15 CET
The wave development is behaving as anticipated with all target levels from last week hit already. The momentum indicator is showing a clear bearish divergence forming/ So, it is another clue that supports the view, that the top for red wave 5 is near or it is in place already. Currently, the market might be in two possible stages: either the top for wave red 5 is in place (main count), or the corrective cycle in red wave 4 is getting a little more complex in price and time (alternative count). The key level here is the lower boundary of the golden trend channel at the level of 1.0978, because any breakout lower is in favor of a main count.
Support/Resistance:
1.1097 - Swing Top
1.1037 - Weekly Pivot
1.1027 - Intraday Support
1.0978 - WS1|Key Level|
Trading recommendations: All swing traders that are still keeping buy orders from last week should get ready to close the positions and wait for a further wave progression as the trend looks mature and reversal/correction is possible.
Daily chart: The USDX continues trying to form a bullish pattern below the strong resistance level of 84.29. Now, the USDX could fall to the support level of 83.74 in the next few days, because this instrument is performing corrective movements in this chart. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone and negative territory.
H4 chart: This instrument has formed a bearish pattern below the trend line at the 84.35 level and now the USDX could make a drop to the level of 83.75. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the support level of 82.95, where the 200 SMA is. The MACD is in negative territory.
H1 chart: The USDX has made a rebound on the 200-day moving average on this chart; so far, the USDX is trying to make a breakout on the resistance level of 84.18. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 84.37 in the short term. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the level of 83.73.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/50821/
Intraday trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 18, 2014
Today traders focus on the Scottish referendum, effecting demand pressure on the Pound. GBP/USD has been facing strong resistance at the descending trend line. In the daily charts, the pair was rejected at 20Dsma during previous days and closed below 1.6280 representing undertone of bearishness. The cable has support at 1.6230, below this, 1.62, 1.6180 and 1.6160 levels. We can see another fall below 1.6160 for a downside target at 1.6052 and 1.60. Aweekly close below 1.60 underpins the pair to fall another 200-300 pips in the ST. For the near term, a daily close above 1.6385 favors selling on an up move.
Resistance 1.6385 1.6440 1.6585
Support 1.62 1.6050 1.60
A weekly close below 1.60 ST - noise in the charts for 1.5850 and 1.57- Pending
A daily close above 1.64 - Some strength will regain for the near term.
For an intraday session, the cable is trading above 12ema and 35DEMA levels. The pair has support at 1.6240 and resistance, at 1.6280. A breakout either side will give room for intraday trading. On the down side, if it hits 1.6240 it can fall to 1.62 and 1.6160 levels. On the upper side, above 1.6280 it can fly up to 1.6312, 1.6358 and 1.6380. Sell below 1.6240
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/50877/
EUR/USD: The bearish bias on this pair is still valid and rallies have always proffered good short-selling opportunities. The current shallow rally in the market is also seen as another opportunity to go short when the price rallies in the context of a downtrend. As long as the price is below the resistance line at 1.3000, there is a probability that the market may move downwards.
USD/CHF: This market is in a bullish mode and the buyers have always made attempts to drive the price higher in spite of serious challenges from bears. With more strength in the USD, the price may reach the resistance level at 0.9450. More challenges from the bears may cause the price to pull back towards the support level at 0.9300.
GBP/USD: Unlike its EUR/USD counterpart, the Cable has succeeded in shrugging off the bears attacks. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 (while the price is above both of them). The RSI period 14 is above the level 50. This means a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. Short trades are no longer logical here.
USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has been able to go further northward. The bullish bias is very significant and the price may easily test the supply level at 109.00, breaking it to the upside. However, the market looks very overbought and as a result of this, there may be a serious pullback along the way.
EUR/JPY: The Euro itself is not that strong; it is the great weakness in the Yen that has caused this pair to trend upwards significantly. The market is now very overbought and therefore, a pullback is imminent. While the market can go towards the supply zone at 150.00, the possibility of a pullback may bring it down towards the demand zone at 139.50.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/50941/
Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/JPY for September 22-26, 2014
The pair managed to close above the descending trend line and the top of the triangle. The pair has support at 139.50, 139.10 (50Wsma) and 138.15 (20Wsma). The pair has strong resistance at 140.90, 141.20 and 141.90 levels. The pair today gave a strong opening and opened above the previous week’s close. The weekly RSI and Stochastics are indicating a bullish sign. In the early Pacific session, the pair made a low at 139.75 and held the support at 200DSma. The upper end of the triangle, providing enough support to the pair. The main concern part is the daily Stochastics indicating a negative divergence. A daily close below the upper end of the triangle rises bearish thoughts again on a weekly basis. The Thursday and Friday closing patterns indicate the nearest top is placed at 140.46, safe fresh buying only for a target at 141.80.
Support 139.10, 138.45, 138.15.
For an intraday view, the prices are trading above 12ema and 34hrsma. The pair has resistance at 140.25 35DEMA, above this, 140.33, 140.45, 140.65 and 141 are possible. Strong up move will be triggered only above 141 levels. The pair looks weak only below 139.35 (35hrsma), sellers can look for a downside target at 139.18, 138.46 levels. In the h4 chart, RSI and Stochastics are indicating a buy signal at the current market price.
Sell only below 139.35, risky traders can sell at cmp.
NOTE- If the USD index breaks above 85, JPY will continue to weaken. Please keep an eye on USD.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/50997/
The US dollar is facing strong resistance at $85, if this takes off, huge potential upside will be expected. The pair made a double top at 1.11 levels after that the pair went through a healthy correction up to 50Dsma and closed above the near- and short-term moving averages. In yesterday’s session, the pair made a strong close at higher levels. But, today, as of now, the pair opened higher representing a bearish view. We recommend fresh buying above 1.1044 for targets at 1.1072 and 1.1 levels. Above 1.1 we can see an immediate target at 1.1150, later at 1.12 and 1.1220 levels. The pair has a strong support zone between 1.0865 and 1.08464. A weekly closing basis below 50WSma, the NT and ST view looks bearish - use a dip to buy.
Support 1.0880, 1.0846, 1.0811
Resistance 1.1072, 1.1, 1.1150
For an intraday view, we recommend buying above 1.1044. The pair has support at 1.1015, below this, at 1.09950 and 1.0975. Use a dip to buy or fresh safe selling only below 1.0975, risky traders can sell below 1.1015. Safe buyers can buy above 1.1044, risky traders can buy at cmp 1.1040.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/51048/
The pair made a double top at 140.45 in the daily chart and is going through a healthy correction. The pair hit the breakout upper end of the trend line many times, now it is acting as a current support trend line on a closing basis. The pair has managed to close above 200Dsma for 3 days. The pair opened today’s session at 139.88 and is trading at 139.75, near 20Dsma. Until the pair trades below 140.20, the pair looks weak attracting bears. The trading pattern is framed between 140.20-139.27 levels. A daily close below 200Dsma or the top end of the triangle, in the near term the pair will favor profit booking.
Support: 139.27-139.16, 138.45, 138.25.
Resistance: 140.21, 140.45, 141.80.
For an intraday view, the prices are closed below the 35DEMA and 12ema represents some weakness in the hourly chart. Sellers (sl 140.21) can short at the cmp. The weakness will double below 139.27 towards 139.18, 139.10 and 138.46. Safe sellers can sell only below 139.10. Above 140.21 it can fly to 141 levels.
In case of a weekly close below 139.10, the bears will have an upper hand.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/51125/
The Fed’s comments made the US dollar stronger. The US data and the job market look pretty strong that adds fuel to the USD index to breach above $85. The cable regains its strength after the Scottish referendum moving 300 odd pips from lows. The cable has held the support at 50Msma and covered half of its losses in this month as of now. The cable has a strong resistance zone at 1.65 (200MEma) and 1.6650 (200MSma) in the medium-term perspective. In the short term 1.6590-1.66 will act as game change levels.
Support 1.6210 1.61 1.60
Resistance 1.6525 1.66 1.6650
For an intraday view, the prices are closed below 12ema and 35DEMA. The prices are back to the 2-month trend lines. In the h4 chart, the prices hit the 2-week trend line as well. The pair has a minor base at 1.6295-1.63, below this, 1.6275 is the support level. The safe buy will be triggered only above 1.6360 for an upside target at 1.6385, 1.64 and 1.6415. Strong momentum is only above 1.6415 (multiple hourly resistance).
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/51234/
EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument closed at 1.2683 on Friday, September 26, 2014; on a bearish note. The price is now below the resistance line at 1.2700, making attempt to reach the support line at 1.2650. This trading instrument would continue its weakness as long as the USD is strong. That is the initial target for the week.
USD/CHF: After some hesitation, the USD/CHF was able to go upwards, breaking the support level at 0.9500 to the upside. It may be thought that the pair could experience a large pullback whenever the USD becomes weak suddenly; but the fact is that the market would continue going upwards as long as the EUR/USD is weak. With further northward movement, the pair may reach the resistance level at 0.9550. That is the first target for the week.
GBP/USD: �The perpetual weakness in the GBP, coupled with the perceived strength in the USD, has enabled this market to go bearish. This has led to the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and it is no longer sensible to seek long trades at this time. More weakness may enable the price to reach the accumulation territory at 1.6150 this week.
EUR/JPY: �The reality in this market is that it is weak: the bearish bias has been confirmed and there is a possibility that the market may continue to be weak, reaching the demand zone at 138.00.
The pair hit the 50Wsma and closed below the upper end of the descending triangle. This week, as of now the pair is facing strong resistance at 139.20 unable to breach it. The Japanese key data are pending in today’s session. The retail sales, household spending and Preliminary industrial production will determine a further trend. The safe buy will trigger above the 140 level. The pair has support at the 138.38 and 138 levels, below these the pair will face selling pressure. For the latest 2 days, the pair has managed to close above 20Dsma. If a daily close is below 20Dsma, the weekly trend turns to more negativity. The weekly support existed between the 137.75-137.70 levels.
Support 138.38 138 137.75-137.70
Resistance 139.15 139.65 140 on cb
For an intraday view, the prices are closed below the hourly key moving averages. A strong sell will emerge below 138.65 with a downside target at 138.50, 138.38, below this at the 138, 137.75-137.70 levels. The free fall mode will trigger below 138.38. Currently, the pair is trading on a verge of a break down level in the h4 chart.
Sell below 138.65; panic will be below 138.38.
Buy above 139.15.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/51344/
[B]Technical outlook and chart setups: [/B]
Gold remains virtually unchanged from what was discussed yesterday. The metal still remains in a tight trading range that could see a break out pretty soon. Support of the range is around $1,200.00/05.00 levels while resistance is seen at $1,230.00/40.00 for now. An engulfing bullish candlestick signal was seen on Wednesday on the daily chart, as it is shown here. But a follow through is still required to be seen, that could break the trading range on the higher side. The metal is trading around $1,212.00/13.00 at the moment and it is recommended to trade on a breakout.
[B]Trading recommendations:[/B] Remain flat for now. Looking for a bullish breakout to get in. Good luck!
Read more: Phân tích và đánh giá ngoại hối
In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6161 in an volume below the average. We can observe that price found support at the level of 1.6000 but if it breaks the level of 1.6000 in a high volume, we may see a potetntial testing of the level of 1.5900 (swing high like support). Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe weak demand and potential end of bullish corrective phase (abcd).
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.6144
R2: 1.6179
R3: 1.6235
Support levels:
S1: 1.6032
S2: 1.5997
S3: 1.5941
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/51605/
The metal prices bounced from the multi-support levels at $1,180 and $1,182. On the down side, in case the metal falls below $1,180, it will extend its fall to $1,175, $1,160 and $1,150. If the metal closes below $1,180, another bearish larger corrective wave will start for a downside target at $1,135, $1,100, $1,050 and $1,035 levels. This view will open only in case if the metal breaks below $1,180 levels. The probability of the US interest rates hike made gold prices to move towards 2013 lows. The metal jumped and closed above $1,200 levels in yesterday’s session. The 20Dsma is at $1,220, until it closes below this, use every rise to sell.
In case of a monthly close below $1,180 on the down side, we can expect $1,100 and $1,035- pending
In today’s session the metal opened on a bearish note, opened higher at $1,207 levels. On the down side the metal has initial support at $1,204, below this, $1,200 will act as physiological support. For an intraday basis the trading pattern is framed between $1,209-$1,204. In case if the metal breaks below $1,204, we recommend selling for a downside target at $1,200, $1,195, $1,193, $1,187.50 and $1,185. A free fall is likely only below $1,180 levels. In case if the metal breaks the open higher strategy and manages to trade above $1,209, we recommend buying for an upside target at $1,212, $1,213.50 and $1,215 levels.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/51619/
The pair opened this week on a bearish note and has continued its bearish move in a row of 2 days. After consecutive 7 weeks of weekly green candles, this week, as of now, in the weekly chart the bears have an upper hand. The pair erased its Friday’s gain completely in Monday’s and Tuesday’s sessions. The pair has weekly support at 0.9489, the 61.6 fib level and 0.9465 (20Dsma). If the pair closes below 0.9465, the bears will have an upper hand and the weekly trend turns down. Today, as of now, in the Pacific session, the pair is unable to breach above the previous opening price. It represents that some more weakness is acting in the foreground, but ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, lower level buying we can see from 0.9560 to 9515 levels.
For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading below 12ema and DEMA. In yesterday’s session the prices faced strong resistance at 35DEMA. In the h4 chart, the pair has hourly resistance at 0.9587, 0.96055 and 0.9625. Unless the pair passes 0.9625, on the down side we can expect 0.9518, 0.9505 and 0.9489 levels. If the prices fall below 0.9518, the selling pressure will increase to touch 0.9489 and 0.9465. Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, we expect a pullback from the lower levels. Huge buying will take place above 0.9625 and panic, below 0.9555.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/51681/
The pair gave strong close in yesterday’s session. The pair has strong resistance at 1.6210 200Wema and 20Dsma 1.6235 levels. In case, if the pair closes above 20Dsma 1.6235 and the weekly resistance trend line, the near-term trend turns positive. On the down side, the pair has support at 1.6090, 1.6050 and 1.5950 levels. Today as of now, the pound was unable to breach the previous day high of 1.6181 levels. Like EUR/USD, the pound as well breached and closed above the 13-days descending trend line, but is facing strong resistance at the 2-month descending trend line.
Support 1.6090, 1.6050, 1.5950
Resistance 1.6181, 1.6210, 1.6235
For an intraday view, the prices are closed above 12ema. For the last 3 days the prices have been supported by 35DEMA on an hourly closing basis. We recommend fresh buying above 1.6182 only. The pair support is at 1.6129, 1.6091 and 1.6025 levels. Risky traders can start selling below 1.6150 for targets 1.6130, 1.61 and 1.6025 levels. Buy above 1.6182 for targets at 1.62, 1.6235 and 1.6250, may be even 1.63 levels.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/vi/forex_analysis/51745/