here’s an interesting chart you might want to follow
Lots of other informative BTC charts as well!
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TP filled, turned out to be a good move even if I had to wait some 11 hrs for it! 
Thanks! Will give it a look now… 
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Well we just hit that $100 000 level and bounced straight off it. So now it is really interesting to see if this was profit-taking on a broadly observed support level or are we going to either break lower or reverse back into a bullish move.
Somehow we think we could just hang around this level for a few days and for the NFP on Friday to see the impact on USD, US indices, and risk on/off sentiment…
These kinds of periods can be so damaging to short-term trader accounts as price tends to invitingly bounce and spike randomly up and down with no actual reason other than reflecting general participant activity. But stops get hit frequently and the trader is left wondering at the end of a week how did they manage to bleed so much money from their account with price going nowhere?
“Been there, done that, got the T-shirt”, as they say…
Edit:
It was the worst October for BTC for many years, and recent PA can look pretty ugly on the shorter term charts. But before we get too carried away on the downside, here is the weekly chart with that $100 000 level.
Personally, I think this shows we certainly could see some more weakness, but that currently we are still far from a complete meltdown - more like a consolidation period?
As expected, we are seeing some support around this $100K. That is not surprising given that its a big psychological number.
The key question here, though, is whether we are just seeing a temporary pause in selling combined with some short-term trader impact (me! 
), or are we going to see some serious buying/re-investing here that will build a floor under this level?
This pause (so far!) is nicely shown on the hourly chart (note: RSI still <50):
I am still inclined to think that we won’t see much of significance before Friday’s NFP (if there is one, with the ongoing gov’t shutdown?)
Talking of government shutdowns, its November 5th. That’s Guy Fawkes Day in the UK:
Britannica.com:
Celebrated with fireworks as Guy Fawkes Day, this English holiday marks the anniversary of the Gunpowder Plot, when Roman Catholics led by Robert Catesby tried to blow up Parliament, the king, and his family this day in 1605.
1605!.. And here we are in 2025:
“Trump ordered the Pentagon to restart nuclear testing for the first time since 1992, citing rival nations’ actions”.
Nothing much changes, does it? 
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I thought this was a relevant comment from Investing.com concerning BTC’s sell-off. This sees it as a spreading of a broader concern over inflated values in other markets rather than specific to BTC itself. This makes sense to me:
Bitcoin’s losses also came as data from analytics firm CoinGlass showed over $1.27 billion in leverage positions across crypto were wiped out earlier this week. A bulk of these liquidations were of long positions, as traders betting on more price gains in Bitcoin were liquidated by steep losses in the world’s biggest crypto.
Bitcoin’s losses came tracking a broader sell-down in global risk-driven markets, amid growing concerns over an artificial intelligence-fueled bubble in equity valuations. Fears of stretched valuations were further stoked by the CEOs of several major Wall Street banks warning of an imminent pullback on Tuesday, which caused steep losses in U.S. markets.
This is the 4-hour SP500 v. 4-hour BTC chart:
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The difference between gold and Bitcoin?
Gold: No one questions its value as a safe haven
BTC: Everyone questions its value as a safe haven
We live in uncertain times and a changing world order. “Safe haven” is no longer just a concept…therefore, this means increasing volatility.
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Its been a sleepy kind of day with a slow drift up, away from that “magic” $100 000 level. But will it continue or will we see another test on the downside?
Hard to call, but I suspect, after a 20%+ drop, that we are not going to simply continue to slowly and obediently climb straight back up again. If everyone is fearing, or even just wondering about, another blast on the downside then the slightest sign of a down move will spark actions.
But if it does, from what level? I am a bit suspicious that we might already be in an area here, around $103500, where we could see some resistance and selling coming in - but its a risky trade…
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Not much change since yesterday. We did manage to climb a shade higher than anticipated into the resistance zone shown in blue on this graph. But didn’t break through it and are now trading below it again.
But the price action is mild and drifting rather than trending so the question here is: Are we about to take another shot at that $100 000 level or are we just biding time until tomorrow’s NFP.
Personally, I’m sidelined at the moment. The higher timeframes are neutral/negative and the 1H too slow moving to entice a sell.
It’s a funny thing, this trading mentality. I find my account does best when I am looking for reasons NOT to trade!
That might sound screwy (and probably is! ) but I am by nature and profession risk averse. And, if one thinks about it, the mental barrier of looking for reason NOT to enter a trade, actually means that when one actually does enter a trade it is because it is screaming at you not to miss it! Which is a pretty wierd way of saying that by filtering out the impulsiveness, the FOMO, the chasing, and - especially in my case - pre-empting what the charts are going to say before they actually say it, means that only the best set-ups actually get through the process and end up as trades - sensible? hmm, well, wierd, anyway!
This was interesting:
“Bitcoin has shed roughly 25% from its October peak, pushing the supply of coins held at a loss to 28.1%, CryptoQuant data shows.”
Goes to show how much investment into BTC has been made in recent times for such a large quantity to now be held at a loss!
“Historical data show that such supply losses have often preceded price reversals. A spike in this metric to 27% in April 2025 preceded a 70% rally in Bitcoin. Back in September 2024, it kicked off a 125% surge.”
So will existing holders sell into any rally?
Or will earlier sellers now buy back into any dips?
On my charts, we are still vulnerable to the downside in the near term. So I am not a buyer yet, even though that is my main underlying objective.
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Interesting BTC-related snippets:
“New inflows have been slowing for months…”
“US-listed spot ETFs registered cumulative outflows of over $1.5 billion in less than two weeks …”
“Traders should watch bitcoin’s interaction with its 50-week SMA, a crucial bull market support since early 2023. A strong rebound here could signal new record highs…”
This is how that weekly SMA is looking now (Remember that a current weekly MA value is only valid at the EOW and not mid-week. When is BTC’s EOW? Is it Friday night NY time? or Sunday? or something else? ):
I couldn’t resist the negative heaviness in price action and had to sell on the likelihood of a further push down to $100 000.
Nice little trade, here on the 15 min chart. Took a little while but got there, got out, pulled back up again…
Following the US indices again? Yes, I think so. But this trade was, as all trades are here, 100% based on TA across multiple timeframes.
BTC still looking weak and no signs of money returning.
We are bouncing off these broadly recognised solid support areas defined by the weekly 50 SMA and the psychological $100k price.
But it seems this is more due to shorts profit-taking than fresh investment and so the bounces are weak and short-lived.
Seems the markets across many instruments are spooked by fears that the AI industry is way over-valued and the bubble is vulnerable…
Back to the tea and ginger nuts…
BTC is looking really vulnerable right now. We have tested the lows several times and bounced off them, but each bounce has fizzled out at lower highs.
Now we are pressing the $100,000 line once again and it really feels like we are going to break down here…and if we do, it will trigger a new round of investment bail-outs and I don’t see a sensible stopping point much above 96-93000 zone!
I sincerely hope that we will not break down and will again find support here! I am not selling on principle!
But I also don’t know whether there is a NFP today or not. It is marked as “tentative” due to the current US govt shutdown, and I guess there won’t be a release again, maybe!
Just for something different:
I was reading an article about a joint NASA-China project to avoid a satellite collision in space. The article also included this picture with the caption:
“An artist’s concept depicting the near-Earth orbital debris field, based on real data from the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office. (Image credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)”
Kind of eerily beautiful and, at the same time, pretty scary how much stuff there is out there. Looks like all the world’s Bitcoin wallets blown up into near-earth orbit. Now that would be quite a gold rush… 
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I know nothing about BTC but on any instrument I’ve traded, that’s a strong sign to look for a potential short entry.
Interesting!
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“AI-related stocks slumped as investors question evaluations and aggressive spending on data centers. That skepticism has spilled into crypto, weighing on the bitcoin price.”
Here is one reason given for weakness in BTC. I understand the weakness in AI-related stocks - but why does that affect BTC? Who knows! - I certainly don’t!
Seems like BTC is a bit like a cuckoo. Since it doesn’t have a nest of its own it has to borrow nests from anyone else who happens to be around…
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If I had sold then there would have been a chance to take a profit - but only one chance today as it seems we are finding some short-covering/buying interest coming into the weekend.
The lack of US data releases today, namely the NFP; helped to stem any further potential selling incentive and left the market just bobbing around like a cork in a bucket of water.
I did join in the buying side for a quick Friday day-trade but am now flat into the weekend. Its been a rather frustrating 1st week in November with uncertainty equating with smaller position sizes and tighter profit targets. But kept above my 70% preferred win rate and a profitable week - so no complaints.
BTC is of course still trading Sat/Sun and need to keep a watch on how things go. Monday mornings seem to be active sessions in the Far East…
Those big supports (namely the weekly 50SMA and $100 000 price level) won the day on Friday. We saw one last push towards those support levels, but it lacked the follow-through and we bounced off pretty quick and started a little rally instead as shorts gave up on the day. But this up-move also fizzled out towards the day’s end…
We haven’t actually achieved anything other than to further define the current range that starts this new month as shown on this 1-hour chart:
All looks so easy in hindsight . Why didn’t I trade one trillion lots on each move and earn more than Elon Musk’s latest pay rise in one week??? 
One can see clearly on this daily chart just how the “battle” swung up and down all this week…
This Saturday morning has also seen more down drift so far.
On another note:
What on earth is a Satoshi one might ask!?!?
Well, now that BTC is becoming more frequently used as a payment method rather than just an investment, it is creating problems for small sums due to its hyperbolic rise in value. A bit like the problems with hyperinflation with fiat currencies. You know, when you have to spend 100,000,000,000 units to buy a loaf of bread.
According to Wikipedia:
"The satoshi, also called a “sat,” is the smallest denomination of the cryptocurrency bitcoin. It is named after Satoshi Nakamoto, the Bitcoin creator(s). There are one hundred million satoshi per bitcoin, so one satoshi (sat) equals one hundred millionth of Bitcoin’s market price. This is important because, as Bitcoin’s price rises and the cryptocurrency eventually reaches its circulating limit of 21 million, a large number of smaller denominations will need to be circulating. Also, it is much easier for a user to say “1 sat,” than it is to say “one hundred millionth of a bitcoin.”
And I guess if BTC continues its meteoric rise in value then we will eventually see the issue of “NewSats” worth, for example, one millionth of one Satoshi.
Is this how we get round the “rarity” issue with Bitcoin?
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