hi mattymoney, thanks for the answer. i am considering break out and re-test strategies. indeed this might avoid a fake break out. what i am hearing is that volume is a critical matter to consider when looking at break out / re-test, etc - establishing trend require a larger trade volume presume that the volume which you are looking at is indeed the market trade volume not the trade volume within your brokerage. how would you like to consider the trade volume when your approach the break out and re-test strategy? many thanks. f
thanks tommor for shareing your thoughts. in addition to the price patterns, how would you like to factor in the volume factor in the break out and re-test? happy to hear your thoughts. f
I’m not sure there is such a thing as accurate and comprehensive volume data in forex.
Some people say it has a place in company stock trading, where shares changing hands are continuously declared. But even when I was trading shares, the most I ever got from volume was that when price moved strongly up or down, volume was high: and when price was flat, volume was flat. So I gave up on volume.
thanks tommor for sharing. can i explore here? if you give up volume, what would you like to use to confirm the break out and / or re-test? many thanks. f
For my long-term trend-following trades I am looking for the recovery from a pull-back. For example in an uptrend on D1, a pull-back means 2 consecutive days with lower highs and lower lows, followed by a day which breaches the high of the second day.
Here is my take on SR levels on a 1H chart. Buy on confirmation (candle close) above zone, sell below zone:
As for volume, I don’t use it because it doesn’t make sense to me. Maybe I just don’t understand it, but I see the same thing Tommor does:
But some people swear by it. I had someone go into detail about reading volume around SR levels on my thread starting here: volume info.
Hope this helps. But just remember, everyone see’s SR levels and zones differently. Some include wicks, some don’t. But with some experience you’ll figure out what works best for you.
***Edit - addition: I believe the higher timeframes, such as 4H and 1D are more reliable when using this strategy.
I tend to wait for a confirmation that breakthrough is not fake so retest of the level that was broken and subsequent bounce from it lends credence to the buyer intention to move to a new high.
In my opinion waiting for the retest is better. Better confirmation, better risk/reward
someone is confused… the ops excellent question is very specific. the correct answer should include a mathematical reason. trading is a numbers game, those who understand the underlying math behind their choices make more money.
most are too lazy to go into depth with the math, ive had some brilliant people on my team but i will take a hard worker over a genius all day
being good at math does not mean you know what the most mathematically optimal set of system rules are. sometimes say you know what im not too sure, let me get back to you, sometimes thats better than talking like you know everything when you dont
it takes deep thought and research to answer this question so until youve done both please drop the act
@jcena44 I think you should let the OP speak for him/herself, and come back when you have something helpful to say.
When you say you’ve had brilliant people on your team, what do you mean by your team?
Curious, so what then is the correct answer?
To help you on this, it is better to wait after a breakout for a retest as this will give you more clarity and confidence when placing a trade, as it allows you not to be stopped out by any fake outs or change in direction of the market. Hope this helps.
Since it involves support and resistance level. It’s better to wait for it to retest for sure in case of a fake breakthrough. Once it actually breakthrough and establish new resistance/support level then you can apply the strategy, don’t immediately trade after a breakthrough cause it can be quite risky.
Since you are all in agreement then i must be wrong. k sorry to disturb this thinktank
Both the strategies are profitable in their own way and solely depend on the way the traders manage them. But, in order for the strategies to work, you’ll need to be patient. Most of the times the early moves prove to be wrong so it’s better to be patient and let the trade show its side first.
If you’re talking about a single trade, that goes the correct way then you’re right. But if it’s a fake breakout and shoots down then you’re wrong. The question is which is more profitable. You’d have to study a lot of charts to definitively answer that question, but the safer option would be to wait for a retest and trade when confirmed breakout
Ive done the research. Everyone here in agreement is guessing.
Are you able to share your research?