Why couldn’t a profitable scalper “sustain” his edge over time …weeks, months even years?
sure, but you’re missing the point. What stopping a scalper lose 10 trades in a day when they trade on average 30 times a day. Each one of these trades has a 10 pip stop. It’s the general idea and the application of it, regardless of the trading style. Not only that but Scalpers are already up against the odds due to the spread and the accumulated spread paid every time they trade.
pippuppet,
the question simply is, because markets aren’t sustainable over time, behaviour is changing. You’ll be able to adapt your trading, but probably you’ll need some time to do so, and until this is done …
josch
True, but try and sustain 17 out of every 20 trades - that’s what this quoted post was in reply to.
How many successful scalper do you know who have done this for a living for many many years? I have never met one yet… But I am sure you did your research about it… If not, maybe you will be the first successful scalper that I will hear about. So, go ahead and do it. I said it is possible and it is up to you to make it sustainable. Your success doesn’t depend on anyone’s opinion. You can make it happen and let us know when you did 
Good-luck!
With ego being cast aside, you should not be focused on making pips every day. You can make pips in a day, yet lose money, and also lose pips in a particular day but make money.
The focus should be twofold in my own opinion.
- Is your methodology stable, repeatable and reliable.
- Can you make consistent returns (% return, not pips made) over a longer term. It is no use having a great week/month and setting expectations on that. You would be much better looking at a view over a 12 month period. That way, you can combine the good with the bad and see what the overall position is.
Be aware of people who quote 100% success rates. What that generally means is they do not run a stoploss and ride the bad trades until they hopefully turn to a profit. The risk of that is if you tried to catch a long at the end of an uptrend. Imagine going long in March on the AUD at almost 1.06 before it fell like a lead balloon. 16c later in the wrong direction and you’d most likely have a call from your broker.
You will not make 100% successful trades in Forex. You will need to get used to the concept of a trading methodology that brings the probability of a profit in your favour, but also accept those losing trades that qualified an entry based on your method.
Lastly, and it is likely to draw the ire of many here, but most of the people on the forums are beginners and do not have long term results that are positive. If you did, would you not show your results to create credibility. I have been studying forex over 3 years, live for 2 of them. I have not lost much, not gained much in $$$, but have found a few mentors who are demonstratably successful, their methods align with where I want to be and I am on the journey to becoming a forex trader in my own right. You need to find someone successful yourself as well, and learn from them. It is the best way to become a trader in my mind.
Tass …how is money lost at end of the day with net positive pips… Don’t see how this is possible?..never said anything about “100%” success rate …i been trading for a couple months.
Trade one: Lost 10 pips at $10 per pip = -$100
Trade two: Win 30 pips at $1 per pips = +$30
Net end of day +20pips, -$70
This is why you measure success in terms of % gain/loss and not pips.
[QUOTE=“PipNRoll;525444”]
Ah Nope…Nobody is perfect and so is the market…what we are trying to do is to find an “edge” to become profitable.[/QUOTE]
Thank you PipNRoll.
This is possibly the easiest way to explain (with picture). Here is a screenshot I shared a few weeks ago of my myfxbook account, recently started with a new broker, a month and a half ago.
2013-08-27_2350 - stewartk’s library
It demonstrates a few things that are not common beliefs.
You can profit by winning less than 50% of your trades. This shows a 40% win rate and 5% overall account gain
You can profit by not having a positive amount of pips won - look at the pips lost but profit gained for the “today” column.
With the method currently being used, I do not risk any more than 0.5% on any one trade. Stop Losses are placed and adhered to on every trade. The big thing with this method is the Reward:Risk ratio is very favourable. That shows with average loss (which would be 0.5% at the time of placing the trade) of $66 and average win of $115, so it is overall an average reward:risk of almost 2:1.
Hope that helps understanding a bit. I am happy to try to explain if it isn’t as clear as I believe I have made it. Projection and perception can be two very different things 
You changed the premise to suit a pre-conceived argument…not reasonable to assume a change in size while scalping…you’re argument is irrational…
Can’t open that link…will you post a screenshot here please?
omg… there really is no helping you is there. You asked how can you make pips and still lose money. You did not state anything about keeping lot sizes constant. Please continue with your thread, i’m out of here.
A lost cause people
We misunderstood one another early on didn’t improve much from there…of course self-evident the possibility of positive pips but negative profit …if you change your size between trades…but scalpers don’t do this…otherwise i don’t believe this is possible that’s the reason I asked
Tass you changed size between trades?
The question asked is 100 net positive pips per day within the realm of reasonable possibility? I agree with all here that it is possible but not reasonably so. Scalpers may expect net positive days almost everyday (but 100+?) swing trades probably don’t expect that nor try because they are holding overnight sometimes for weeks. Intraday swing trades ie those in between high frequency scalping and overnight swing trading that try to capitalize on large intraday movement but exit @EOD, probably not but maybe, a possibility…
No, it’s not possible to make 100 pips every day. Sometimes it’s simply consolidating(not moving in one direction). =]
Yes, it’s possible to make money every day, just not 100 pips.The volatility of Forex market has collapsed after 2008. You will have better luck finding this kinds of opportunities in the oil market, but as a beginner, you will also lose your shirts much quicker.
That was the point I tried to make however in vain when I entered this thread.
A target of 100 pips per day is quite meaningless. Even the most inexperienced trader could throw together a grid trading system that could make those kind of daily returns on a single instrument. Trade that system across 20 pairs, and you’ll be making thousands of pips per day, any fool can do it.
As for making money everyday, that’s rather unrealistic. Its possible to do it, but its typically achieved by adopting a risk reward ratio optimized to achieve these kind of returns, which works until the day it doesn’t