This very relevant to what I’ve been thinking and discussing, thank you.
The S&P is my favourite index to trade. I use it to gauge what I will or will not do on the others too, obviously the US indices as they all move in a family, but also the FTSE100 (I’m in the UK).
My first trading strategy was a swing trading system aimed at the FTSE100. Yes, I agree, indices are more susceptible to TA and they clearly are more likely to trend long-term (upwards). Wish I’d stuck with the FTSE.
One kind of side benefit with trading US indices is that all the relevant news releases tend to come early in the US day and the rest of the day is a reaction to the releases (like today with NFP). The only other events that can “disturb” later in the day are generally like FOMC minutes, Fed boss talks, etc.
This means it is possible for European traders to do other things during the day and only take a trade view during the evening when it is easier to keep a watch on things (say) hourly.
I am 2 hours ahead of you and the US market is ideal in that releases are usually at 15.30 and 17.00 and the mkt day ends around 23.00. So my daytime, after a morning mkt preview, is focused generally on other things like family, walking my dog, gardening, hobbies, etc and I turn to the mkts in the evenings when TV is otherwise so boring nowadays
But it is just my personal routine. I always found it frustrating with FX having to keep an eye on all kinds of events from other countries all day long.
I think this is particularly relevant with prop firm trading where news trading is often a default no-go breach unless one buys an add-on allowing news trading.
OMG - This reminds me, I used to love driving. I graduated from a Willys Jeep at 17 through many classics including MGTD,RileyRME,AlvisTA21 and others up to a Porsche911. My last car was an Abarth500, that was fun, but 10 years ago. I haven’t driven for 10 years, I don’t think I would trust myself, certainly not to drive like I used to.
Look at that icon atop of the radiator grill - beats RR!
Interesting mix of emotions to recall the vintage days of the British MG - only to see the brand name now resurrected and adorning ultra-modern EV’s from China!
Nope! I don’t accept that at all! In many ways, I think the older one gets the more one can enjoy life and evaluate things better.
Humans are living longer and in better condition both physically and mentally, for example: " There are apparently at least 510 centenarian driving licence holders in the UK, and about 1.65 million people aged 80 or over held a full driving licence."
But we digress from the topic. (I wonder how many of those 1.65 mill octogenarians (+) hold investments based on indices…)
OH NO!
I had an incredible early life! I was a county champion athlete, I rode racehorses and wild wild women
That Alvis you showed was awesome, mine was a saloon. I see EV MGs here in Cambodia, even tried to explain the history to an owner, he thought I was some kind of nut job
They most fun car I ever owned was the Willys Jeep (the girlies used to go ‘cricky’)
And the worst was the Porsche 911, my dream car until it broke down so many times the AA refused to cover me.
‘Life begins at forty’ is one big lie - it’s down hill from 40 and over the cliff at 70.
Wow! That is amazing! Brings to mind the “Back to the Future” film series!
I have never seen that one before - and it is French! Incredible!
I found this Youtube that is an interesting and short talk about this car (no, @Johnny1974 , not the lady! ) (what else is there to do while waiting for today’s NFP release! ):
Interesting, BTW, that, although French, it is a right-hand-drive?
To get back to the psychology part of the thread and our humanness - it has just happenned to me again! Demo only, I emphasize, I did NFP on Nasdaq lost 40 won 41. I thought sod it and left the screen. Now anyone who is familiar with my strategy, which I have illustrated many times here on BP will see that it kicked in at 13.51 uk time for about 40pts. Where was I? Smoking a fag on the balcony!
Yep, NFP day can be a wild one, demanding close attention due to sudden moves and fast reversals - whilst too close attention can lead to price chasing and disasters!
I bought into the release and saw the SP500 put in yet another ATH but it didn’t seem to have the legs to go higher - afterall, the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed this month is already priced in, I think? So I closed out with a profit (in the first red box area - hourly chart).
Some time later price drifted off and approached the day’s opening level (the pale blue line). If it passed down through this line it would negate the initial NFP reaction and suggest a further drop.
So I sold into the drop through the day’s opening line with a stop above the day’s high and a target above the new Fib level (based in the new high) of 61.8%.
I think this demonstrates a very pragmatic and systematic market with very specific factors of influence - somewhat different to FX pairs? What do you think?
Two gains and I’m now done for the day, and my dog’s getting restless…
200pts on 5mins chart Nasdaq - And where was I? On a damn phone arguing with cellphone providers here in Cambodia, about the cost of calls to UK that might or might not save me $10 - mad or what?