In gambling, each outcome should be totally independent of the previous trial. It doesn’t matter if you have the house’s positive expectancy, or the players negative expectancy, it’s still gambling. In card counting, even though you can’t affect the next card played (read the next price direction for Forex), you can change the odds to your favor if you work hard enough. The reason you can do that is each card played is not totally independent of the previous card. There is a relationship in that there are only so many aces for instance, and once they have all been played, there is a 0% probability that the next card is an ace. So is that gambling? It looks like gambling. It’s played with cards at a casino for chips. But no, strictly speaking, it’s not gambling because each trial is not completely independent of the previous one. It’s certainly not investing, since nothing is bought or sold. I suppose you could call it informed speculation.
I also had college stats. And just because someone else didn’t, it doesn’t make them stupid. If you don’t know the difference between independent trials and dependent outcomes, I’d suggest you ask the college that taught you stats for a refund of your money :p:p:p
I would think there is an advantage to card counting because you can know how many aces were played. In forex the only thing that is definite is that the market is always right and the market will do whatever it wants to for whatever reason. There is no limit to the proverbial “aces”
Trader, speculator, fund manager etc etc.
You can dress it up any which way, the fact you’re a professional or an amateur makes no odds. It’s out & out gambling.
What’s the big deal anyway? Since when was gambling considered a dirty word or an illegal act?
One of the things that harms the industry is the promise of amazing returns for very little investment and very little work.
There is profit potential in forex but it’s a lot more involved than simply trading a demo account for a few weeks then funding an account an trading from a $27 PDF.
Like most things in life, it takes education and dedication.
For some people its a bit of deal, those with christian beliefs for example. The psychological issues this causes at a subconsious level is one of the main reasons these people always fail, but they wont accept that.
I agree, that in the strictest definition trading is gambling, and I would also apply that same definition to a casino owner too even though the edge is in their favour. The process in which they are involved at a transactional level is gambling.
Of course we’re all gamblers.
You, I & other traders who place money in the markets via brokers are speculating.
We interact with the markets by placing bets, or staking percentages of our available speculative capital, & adopting a directional view on the movement of price.
That involves placing that speculative capital at risk.
If we bet & the outcome is successful, our account is credited.
If we bet & the outcome is unsuccessful, our account is debited.
There really is no other way to explain it. What did you think it involved?
If it would be random, price would jump wildly. Like with dices from 1 to 6. Is for instance eurusd today 1.50 and tomorrow .70 and then next day 1.50 again? No, it isn’t! Because it is not random.
But prices change within a band of borders. Price is related also to the last price. The highest probability is that price stays the same. It needs force to move prices. Unfortunately, the first move is paid to the broker as spread / commission. So you need more force to have a profit. Plus you don’t know how far the price moves. How I see it this is far more important to know than the direction, as there are only two directions.
Forex is as with every market a probability “game”. You have to have an edge over probabilities higher than 52:48 if 2 is the broker commission/spread.
Sure, you may “play” it like random. If you have the same tp/sl values and open a trade just randomly, then your outcome is random. But this does not say every trader trades like this.
Dice can jump from 1 to 6 because dice have 6 equal probabilities, forex has only 2, the price can go up or it can go down.
Its also probably worth noting, an event does not have to be random for gambling to take place.
Previous history can be used on many forms of gambling to help the gambler forcast the outcome of the event. In horse racing you can look at the horses previous form, its best and average times over 1 mile etc. You can look at your football teams previous results before you make your bet on the next game, as in forex you can use the chart history and other indicators to help you decide which is the more likely of the two outcomes, up or down.
The only criteria than need to be in place to make an activity gambling are, money needs to be staked on the outcome of an uncertain event. Forex trading, stock market trading, investments in general are all gambling, and in fact under the law, special dispensation had to be made to exempt financial investing and trading from being subject to gambling laws.
Obviously if such activities did not constitute gambling, that clause would not have to be included in federal gambling laws in the first place.
I would have to disagree with you, an event does not have to be independant from the previous event for gambling to take place. Any event can be gambled on, independant of the previous event or not, if the other party is willing to accept the bet, and if the other party (forex broker) is set to make money no matter what the outcome, because there is a spread involved, opposite bets from other traders to offset your bet, and the option to hedge, they would accept your bet.
i think forex is not gambling. forex needs a lot of knowledge to learn and there are many many systems out there. while gambling doesnot require any knowledge and you can start gambling in seconds.e-g to play on roulette table you dont need to master any strategy or skill just place your bets on the table and if you are lucky your number will come up.
we should not compare froex with gambling. its a genuine business. if forex was a gambling why there are many indicators out there. why not people just buy or sell currency randomly instead of following technical or fundamental analysis.
those people who think forex is gambling they are treating forex like that. they are playing it like gambling and loosing everythime.
but those people who think this is genuine business they respect it like a business and use skills and strategies needed to do it.
It is wrong and quite disorienting for a trader to take forex for a gamble, or a game, or a contest.
The markets and price is quite predictable using past and prevailing info/data/conditions, word on the street and math bleeding thru the nose: in gambling you cross your toes or clench the hind cheeks and take a go. Just like jumping off a cliff.
In trading, you can stop good fortune or bad luck/judgment in its tracks by closing the trade, thus come out 4% or so dead: in gambling, once the dice fly, you have to wait for them to fall and book the full consequence of the bet.
In financial markets, we speculate: here gamblers get slaughtered all the time.
Well, as I wrote above, you may use it as gambling, but that doesn’t say forex itself is like gambling. The example of dices were just to show that there is no connection. The dices have equal probability with all 6 numbers. In markets, you have a price which is connected to the former price.
If you look at chaos theory, you know that markets are no game. As I mentioned above, prices do not jump wildly outside of a used to be range, bound to the former price. That is definitely not random.
Sure you may bet like in gambling on up or down as I described above, but only if you use it as this. However, in markets you have way more options. You do not just have an entry. You have the option of exits, money management and so on. So, that up and down thing is only a piece of all, if you do not use it as a game. Furthermore, there are fundamentals and if you use fundamentals for long term trades, how can markets be random?
I have to disagree however somewhat with the later posters. Forex/Markets are not random, but it is not predictable anyways. You have probabilities of the outcome, but no predictions. It is like the weather. You see some clouds and the probability to rain is say 40%, but never is the probability a 100%.
You can even use weather predictions for gambling, but that doesn’t say the weather is random. The weather is driven by the cycles of the sun. The markets are driven by the cycles of men.
The forex trading change our life forever. Its earning is so good so we learn and do trade its give us a huge income that we use for our needs in life also enjoy the life with good earning.
Good dice players practice throwing dice a lot. They know the physics behind there dice throws, and that increases there odds. There are for sure a lot of stock traders who have gotten rich. Wyckoff, and others past and present. A funny thing about Wyckoff though, he mentions in his writings to start with an account of 10,000 US dollars, but in the 30’s that was probably millions. But he may have meant to start with smaller lot sizes and build it up. Forex, may be a little different, but I would assume that it can be learned and delt with, by practice, know how, and risk and money management. No I don’t make any money at it, I am not ready to open an account, but I would think there are those who do make money from it without having a lot of capitol. Learn some basics, and give it a try, do a few trades. See what you think. The only thing you may lose is your time, and time is valuable these days. So you might want to think a bit on that.