Is London's position as the world's largest forex market secure post-Brexit?

Or maybe this from Boris:

“I have decided after a huge amount of heartache, I did not want to do anything, the last thing I wanted was to go against the PM or the Government, but after a great deal of heartache I didn’t think there was anything else I could do.”

Reporter: If that is what you thought all along why have you kept your party waiting?.

Boris’s answer:

“The truth is that it has been agonizingly difficult.”

Feb 2016, to assembled journalists in London.

With “Friends” like Michael Gove, who needs enemies ? :slight_smile:

5 minutes to read and understand 100 pages of Jargon ?

( turn your sound down half way - before opening link - it takes a few moments to load the video too )

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/12/brexit-white-paper-reveals-visa-free-movement-temporary-eu-workers/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

And back to the original question :-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/12/britain-fight-eu-power-raid-london-financial-firms-despite-brexit/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

London is no longer the worlds leading financial centre.
The latest Z/Yen Global Financial Centres Index has New York top, London 2nd, closely followed by Hong Kong and with Shanghai catching up fast
London still leads in Europe for now

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Hi Chuck,

London is still dominant in FX trading, but it will be interesting to see the results of the next market survey from the Bank of International Settlements due in 2019.

• From the time I started tracking the Z-Yen rankings in 2008, until September 2013, London was ranked No.1, with New York running a very close second. Typically, there was less than a 1% difference in the ratings between London and New York during that 5 year period.

At least once during that period (in March 2010), London and New York shared the No. 1 spot.

• From March 2014 until September 2015, New York took over the No. 1 position, by a small margin, with London hot on New York’s heels.

• Then, from September 2015 until September 2018, London regained the top spot.

• Now (September 2018) New York is back on top by the thinnest of margins – a rating of 788 for New York vs. 786 for London.


Note that these ratings and rankings, compiled and published every March and September, include a variety of factors – financial, economic, social, and life-style – in judging the desirability of major cities as places to live and do business.

The BIS Triennial Survey which @forex.com mentioned, on the other hand, considers only one metric – average daily foreign exchange turnover (forex volume).


For anyone interested in the current (September 2018) Z-Yen Global Financial Centres Index (note the British spelling :grinning:), here’s a link – Z-Yen (24) - Global Financial Centers Index - 24.pdf (3.5 MB)

And for anyone who wants to dig into the latest (September 2016) BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, here it is – BIS Triennial Survey 2016.pdf (558.5 KB)

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An update on the thread question.

Back in Feb the EU published it’s proposed legal change post Brexit including the position on Financial Services.

“UK investment firms will no longer benefit from the MiFID authorization to provide MiFID investment services and activities in the Union (they will lose the so-called “EU passport”) and will be third-country firms”.

In the withdrawal agreement these issues to be sorted during transition period.

Today’s EU publication confirms that in a ‘no deal’ situation there will be a period of 12 months within which EU firms can access UK clearing and 2 years within which they may access UK depositaries.

The EU are legislating to protect EU firms in their words “these contingency measures shall be strictly limited to what is necessary to deal with major disruptions”

The reference to disruptions is to EU firms, the two legal notices only apply to EU as UK will be outside EU law.

The surprising thing is that there is no legislation to allow UK investment firms access to the EU market, and their description of the 2 pieces of law as “temporary” and “conditional” which in some ways adds to the uncertainty.

The older bulletin describes the ‘no deal’ scenario:

Due to the impending Brexit the FCA has officially clarified that for now the European Union law will continue to apply to companies regulated by the FCA. They will remain in effect until the end of the implementation period, which will last until 31st December, 2020.

More importantly, new regulation that comes into effect during this implementation period will also apply.
On the upside, that means that companies with licenses issued by the FCA will continue to benefit from passporting between the UK and EEA, and that consumer rights and protections derived from EU law will also remain in force.

I think the bigger question is how regulation will change once that implementation period ends and how that will affect the British economy.

Aye, talks will not start until March 1st and seems that Finance is high up on the list.

The position as it stands is that the UK is now outside the EU and on the 1st of Jan next it’s banks will not have passporting in the EU

EU legal speak:
The UK entities providing banking and payment services, as well as e-money issuing,
will no longer benefit from the authorisation to provide those services and activities
in the Union (they will lose the so-called “EU passport”) and will be treated as third country entities with regard to their possibility to establish branches or agents in the
Member States. This means that those entities will no longer be allowed to provide
services in the EU on the basis of their current authorisations.

(ec europa)

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… which of course doesn’t preclude new future financial modalities. If the EU finds liquidity drying up then some accommodation will be pursued. IMO.

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Yep, that document was drawn up in 2018 after much discussion with all member states, they covered almost everything that will need to be agreed - which is a lot.

Accommodation is what all good agreements are about and i suspect the present PM is an achiever.

It was interesting that he has told his cabinet to keep a lid on their media talk, negotiations are more successful away from publicity gaze as was proved in the Withdrawal Agreement which got kick started with his and the Irish PM hush hush meeting in the NE of England.

Edit:
There will be a lot of ‘smoke and mirrors’ from both sides, likely the PM will want to control this (his SPAD Dominic Cummings, often referred to as a ‘source’ is expert in this field).
The battle began today on day one with this ‘leak’ to the Telegraph:

“We are planning full checks on all EU imports - export declarations, security declarations, animal health checks and all supermarket goods to pass through Border Inspections Posts,” this morning’s Telegraph quoted a senior government source as saying.

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A strange war of words already, the UK finance minister, referrring to the UK financial sector wrote today in City AM:

The sector helps drive our economy, employing more than one million people across the UK — two thirds of whom are outside of London — contributing £127bn to our economy every year, and bringing in over £75bn in taxes that help fund our vital public services.

He then continued:

We will no longer be rule-takers, but we remain committed to the highest international standards of financial regulation and to shaping global rule-making. We may choose to do things in the same way as the EU if it works for the UK. But there will be differences, not least because as a global financial centre the UK needs to keep pace with and drive international standards

Likely the EU side were briefed, maybe not, but by coincidence Michel Barnier in the EU Parliament today:

“I’d like to take this opportunity to make it clear to certain people in the United Kingdom authority that they should not kid themselves about this. There will not be general open-ended ongoing equivalence in financial services, nor other management or financial agreements with the United Kingdom,…we will keep control of these tools, and we will retain the free-hand to take our own decisions.”

And so it begins :slight_smile:

NOTHING IS “Secure” - post Brexit - BUT London is the No 1 Market in the world followed by USA - 1000 “European” firms have aplplied to establish offices in London "Post Brexit "

  • I’ll go £100 blind - Any takers ? :wink:
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The above number of EU companies have applied to the FCA to establish a presence in the UK - this information is insightful.

10% are categorized as ‘banking’ - the first question that a person would ask is what about the other 90%?

The answer is that they don’t need to apply since they are already in the UK - the UK focus is to retain these companies’ presence.

A second thing to note is that the third highest country in terms of company numbers is Cyprus at 16.5%. Given that country’s size this seems unusual, but then think about Clint’s thread on offshore brokers - will the UK follow the US lead in stopping it’s citizens from using non-Uk brokers post brexit?
The Cypriot brokers are perhaps adapting to a changing world.

The third lesson is perhaps the law of unintended consequence.

The UK PM agreed a Withdrawal Agreement that included a special place for N.Ireland - it has a foot in the EU but remains in the UK.

The highest number of applicants - almost a quarter - are from Ireland. So easy for those companies to set up just over one hour’s motorway drive North.

Hmmm… now the ex UK Finance minister - a day is a long time in politics I suppose.

It seems Boris wanted a “Closer” relationship and Sajid said No

Aye I was reading a couple of days ago re Cummings - seems the No.11 advisers were not in sync with Boris’s ideas - especially on spending - they wanted a tighter regime - Boris wants to borrow/spend. Good chance Cummings will take over No.11 running as well.

That’s why the pound rise right now - more spending, more economic activity, less pressure on BOE to cut.

FTSE traders selling on same notion - no cuts for the companies to get even cheaper money.

It’s driven by the algos - sense yet to take over - if ever :).

And perhaps an update as to how the negotiations are progressing.

The official line from EU and UK is that they are not.

Guess the sticking point - fishing. I remember posting some time ago that fishing will be the wild card - it’s not a huge industry for UK but they own the waters.

Finance is huge for UK but EU have the size… I can see a trade in the making.

Should have mentioned for anyone trading the pound - it has take a little fall since I posted -some analysts are blaming the apparent stalemate in the talks as per my post.

That is only part of the cause - second part is that the new BOE governor has said that the huge borrowing can be paid by printing - not entirely his decision but carries weight

Eur/Gbp this past few hours: