After the very motivating help in my last thread i hope that you will be able to push me in the right direction again. As i mentioned in my last post i have been studying on the London daybreak strategy. I have worked it out now in a EA but the results gives me one big question; “why is the strategy working fine from January 2010 to October 2015 tot start failing and than starts working in June 2017 again?”
Should i just take that as: “your system can’t be always profitable” should i take it as Brexit fears, US presidency?? Or is it just a case of going back to the drawing board an start new again. What is the best thing to do? I know that there will always be weeks or maybe months of drawdown but this is more than 1,5 years. The tests where conducted on the GBP/USD.
If you think about it, you might perhaps conclude that taking out an overnight high/low actually signifies very little, because “overnight” is the time of least volume and least significance.
“Opening range breakouts”, on the other hand, are a whole different matter, and have been well and widely proven not just to be random.
It’s perhaps not such a mystery, really, if you think it through???
Yet it doesn’t work for long periods. Actually, I don’t say this as I don’t know, buy NLtrader says this. So maybe it does work continuously but his records are at fault? There is no rational reason why a market behaviour like this would recur and then cease.
I presume you are Backtesting with set parameters, does your Backtesting application have an Optimization Backtest mode?
If yes… try setting the same start and finish dates and run the Optimization Backtest. This should give you the most successful parameters (via Sharpe /Sortino Ratios) to set the EA too… and then run the Backtest again…
