PS: Donāt forget to have a strong money management boys, good risk reward and stuff ;D
PPS: You better just forget about this post, iām just a naysayer, after all, thereās a lot of retail forex traders that are consistently winning money out there !
This is just a rehash of random walk which has already been disproven academically. Nothing new or ground breaking here, considering this has been studied over 30 years or so now since computers have been able to generate pseudo random numbers.
So basically you are telling me that studies proved that the market is not moving following a random walk ? ( please give me sources, i believe you but iād like to check it out by myself ).
Ok, but does that imply that the difference between the way market moves and a random walk is exploitable using technical analysis ?
If the difference comes from crash & news, the TA would have 0 efficiency.
More, if it " work " on a random walk too can we really say that it has a sens ?
After having done my own calculations, effectively, the market follow trends, IE: if it goes up, it has more probability to keep on going up, and if it goes down, it has more probability to keep going down.
( i just spend 2 hours doing it on open office too with EURUSD data since 2005 lol ).
Well, sorry gentlemen, iām happy to be prouved wrong
The market does follow trends, but if it is going up it doesnāt necessarily mean if itās going up it will continue, itās a contrived market place with moves designed to catch the unknowing out, and without this knowledge it will always seem to have elements of randomness, and can appear to have no logic or explanation whatsoever.
But this is far from the truth, it is very structured and the price in itself tells the story, price patterns that repeat themselves over and over again, and when you understand these patterns what once seemed pretty random becomes the expected!
Iām not interested in proving you wrong, that is down to you, but if you think about it this way, youāre looking to be proved right, and on that path what you will look for is things that will indeed prove you right, youāre likely to disregard most things that are likely to prove you wrong, itās just like searching for anything on the internet, you will find what you want to find.
So if you are serious about profiting from the markets you need to change your mindset, otherwise you are better off forgetting all about it and moving on to something that you do believe in.
there are fundamental analysis and technical analysis, fundamental analysts even uses technical analysis, so technical analysis is real believe meā¦ and it is working.
Technical analysis is not real if you dont know how to use it.
Sometimes I wonder, if there is some pattern that smart money follows in order to know what to do. Some āunwritten codeā out there that the forex market follows?
I think that there is not anything random. What we call random ir randomness is only an event that has so many variables that we are unable to calculate the result using all of that variables. So, for me, the market is not random.
Biggest hedge fund managing firms use technical analysis in constructing their auto traders. BMW uses such program to trade in forex and have made more money in it than from selling cars. Go tell BMW that they are dumb and using fantasy model to trade.
You will find all international companies trade in forex (or atleast hedge their own currency) - Itās pretty much what foreign currency exchange is about
There most certainly is, but itās not unwritten, youāll find it all over the place, youāll here it referred to as Wyckoff Schematics, Market Maker Profile, and a few other names
Would have been an interesting discussionā¦
