Are people developing new methods and constantly back testing new ideas? Or have we solved everything and for the most part it is just that history repeats itself? If people are finding new things what’s the latest indicators out there?
yes
no
yes
i don’t know
a lot of technical analysis has nothing to do with indicators, you know?
this book is 12 years old, now, but most people might consider it “new”: “New Frontiers in Technical Analysis” by Paul Ciana
The market is dynamic, complex, and ever-changing. What do you think about it right now?
Don’t trust indicators too much, and especially don’t trust new indicators.
Market behaviours haven’t changed much since the sale of rice in Japan in the 16th century. Supply and demand, you know?
As long as there are mathematical ways to represent data points there will be new technical analysis based on them. I am waiting for a Quantum Technical Analysis based on the rules of quantum physics to come out.
When IA robots take over from humans, we might as well go back to the caves to live.
There will always be people who think they need a new indicator to be profitable.
¨the more complicated it sounds, the more you can sell it for¨
Idk but I am learning.
Currently I am trying to learn as much as I can practice analyzing charts on a demo account. And just try to survive my 1st year lol!
sounds like a good plan
just be aware that there’s a whole lot of “technical analysis” that doesn’t involve indicators, and that when people tell you (as some will) “TA doesn’t work,” they usually mean that they think indicators don’t work, and they’re just not aware of any other kind of TA!
Very true statement, as the market changes so also does TA.
There is a strat named the 3 ducks - first posted here some 16 years back , and had been on the go long before that. Many guys had great success with this approach over the years - then 3 years ago it’s well known teacher stopped teaching it - because market behaviour had changed.
The 3 Duck’s Trading System - Trading Systems / Free Forex Trading Systems - BabyPips.com Forum
Exactly, there’s no strategy that works all the time, and even the best sometimes need to change their approach.
- Yes
- not yet! lets assume WD Gann Method ( can predict price number in certain dates, hour even up til’ minutes) is true/ real and has been solved. TRUST ME! no one is finding the new one
I think yes and you know technical analysis is done by using indicators and indicators are also being upgraded.
When I hear folks say the markets have changed I think they are only exaggerating the dynamic nature of the markets. The principles of market activities have remained the same. Buy low, sell high. Supply and Demand like someone mentioned. I really wonder why that is.
however many times people tell you that a lot of technical analysis has nothing at all to do with indicators, you somehow don’t quite take that information on board, do you, Peter?
I believe we can witness a form of gradual evolution, but it’s probable that foundational principles like support, resistance, trend continuation, trend reversal, and breakouts will remain largely unaltered. Furthermore, overly intricate or “proprietary” patterns are unlikely to carry significant predictive power. The efficacy of technical analysis fundamentally hinges on the consistent behavioral responses of market participants, specifically their uniform reactions to well-recognized price patterns acting as catalysts.
The Three Ducks was a very famous and consistent strategy - until it wasn’t.
Looking back, there seems to be no definite diagnosis as to why the strategy failed. The “markets changed” is not a diagnosis, its not even an observation that can be verified - there is absolutely no difference between charts from 2007 and 2023. So in fact, the observation that “the markets did not change” is more accurate.
If I remember rightly the strategy ended up just focusing on GBP/USD: perhaps EUR/USD also but it was always narrow - I don’t suppose Andy had back-tested it on every forex pair in the world and just found that these two were the very very best. Nor that he would keep on forward-testing as performance deteriorated on GBP/USD to find that the strategy worked just brilliantly on AUD/SGD or NOK/SEK.
This seems to be another example of the unpredictable and inexplicable decay in performance of specific strategies on individual pairs. I will bet money that there is a pair right now from the league of 28 on which this strategy is an outstanding winner.
I think the markets did change. Forex especially. They became slower moving and less volatile until covid came along and sent them into a frenzy.
I think the last few years have been so much easier to trade because trends have run strongly and clearly. That’s not to say trends were gone before, but they were more difficult for my style to trade well.