Is the trend always your friend?

Does the term “never trade against the trend” also applies to shorter time frames / shorter holding periods? I was wondering if I could also go short in an uptrend when holding thr position only for 2 days. I usually only trade when my idea confluences with the overall trend on higher timeframe but this system doesn’t triggers a lot of opportunities cause mostly the market is overbought/sold so technically I should shorten but never do it because I don’t want to go against the trend.
But what if I “miss” trading a retracement? Thought about using fibo when trading against thr trend

It is absolutely true that you should never trade against the trend. But the question that follows is, which trend?

Its most important not to trade against the trend in time-frame of your trade. So if you take a trade on the 15-mnute time-frame, with a probable duration of a couple of hours, what the weekly time-frame trend is doing is fairly irrelevant.

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i mostly use 15 minute time frame , this is mostly usable in this platform.

Be aware of the trend, but know it is not everything.

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Always!, unless you have a very clear strategy for taking reversals. If you have rules and respect them, you can trade anything.

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The best strategy for trading is trend-based trading. While analyzing the market, you need to determine whether it is bullish or bearish trend. Suppose, it is bullish trend, but you made a bearish entry, it will never give you the profit. Rather than that you will get sunk into loss.

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Trend is really a helpful aspect but we have to understand the strength of the trend actually! The relation between the strength of trend vs counter trend is so important! This is why, important support/resistant levels are so crucial for counting the strength of any specific trend!

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Look up elliot wave theory and look for the end of wave 5, for the most part if you have identified a strong trend it is ready to end. This is how institutional traders trap retailers as they go for stoplosses that move the market very strongly in the opposite direction.

In reality, consolidation is your friend, periods of consolidation link reversals along with renewal of trends. Look for consolidations and breakouts and confirmation of the breakout from the consolidation.

The trend is a bad friend as it is nearly at the end!

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Well, but I think scalping or short-term trading is okay! Although, it depends on the quality of that trade! I sometimes use scalping trading style when I get such a smooth entry point (against the trend)!

Retail traders stop losses don’t move the market. You trade against a broker and they don’t put your trade into the real market. They don’t need to because most people lose money and they make more money that way. Plus they’d need billions of cash available to do so with leverage

It’s a smart money concept called liquidity zones.

A combination of a big order from an institution along with retailers stoplosses being triggered can really cause the market to move in a counter trend direction

This is true. It always strikes me as funny when new traders assume that when they “buy” EUR/USD, their broker has actually bought a pile of euros, which is now sitting in a bank vault waiting for the trader to ask for them. And these euros were paid for with US dollar bills…

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It’s a concept to explain why the market moves in a way that causes most retail traders to get stopped out. Unfortunately it makes no actual sense when you realise that your trade goes nowhere near the real markets with a counterparty broker.

Maybe somebody with direct market access is being stopped out, but it isn’t those of us who trade with IC Markets, Pepperstone, IG et al. Which makes up 99.9% of people on this forum

Actually, on paper you are buying the cash.

A lot of those brokers you referred to are ECN brokers that go through a liquidity provider into the market place.

Market makers who have their own derivative tools based upon the underlying asset are completely different and replicate what you are refering to.

Private retail traders are not buying currency, no matter what sort of broker they trade through. Its a mirage.

That’s what they want you to believe, but think about what you’re saying. Brokers that offer 500:1 leverage would need to set aside 500k for every 1k you put in your account. Where is that money coming from? You think businesses run with current accounts in the billions to account for the millions deposited every day? What about when accounts go negative and the trader just bails, you think the broker has lost all that money in the market?

It doesn’t make sense, because it’s not what they do. It’s a lot of fancy terminology to make you think your money is going into the market and make you think your trade will contribute to the market moving in the direction you want it to. In reality the broker takes the other side to every single one of your trades, so ECN isn’t actually needed, but it’s exactly the same result, an instant trade.

Interesting lesson on this one here:

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Trend identification is the primary job done by a trader. A trader should recognize whether it is uptrend or downtrend, otherwise opening a trade will be difficult. Trend identification is the precondition for analyzing the market. Never open a buy trade when the market bearish and it’s a very common technique.

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If you are able to identify a trend and the likely probably terminus of that trend based on a larger range then you can try and be on the right side of the market generally on lower time frames. The thing with counter trend trading is that moves are often slower to play out vs the sharper impulses that follow the trend. As such this leads to more time in the market and account exposure.

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I have to agree.

We can use two pieces of factual information to verify the importance of trends. Many brokers are obliged to display the percentage of clients who are losing money; this is typically 70-80 per cent. Brokers also show the percentage of clients who are long or short in each major market; in any established trend you will find 70-80 per cent of clients are in counter-trend positions.

This is no coincidence.

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