Is there a future in currency trading?

[Hariz]

A different opinion.

At some time in the not-too-distant future — [I]maybe even in the near-future[/I] — currency trading will cease to exist, because there will be no individual currencies to trade. And the demise of currency trading will have nothing to do with today’s high-frequency trading, or with draconian restrictions imposed on retail trading by paranoid governments.

The demise of currency trading will occur after two major, world-shaking events:

• First, the world will adopt an International Reserve Currency, replacing the U.S. dollar.

The new world reserve currency will no longer be one of the world’s national currencies. It will be a “currency” used exclusively in international trade, to settle accounts and balance the books. It may be Special Drawing Rights (SDR’s) issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), or it may be some form of currency we have not yet envisioned.

The adoption of an International Reserve Currency may occur in two steps.

Step 1 — if the U.S. fights being knocked off its reserve-currency pedestal — may involve China, Russia, the European Union and OPEC acting in concert to set up a new reserve currency for use among themselves, leaving the U.S. out in the cold.

Step 2 — obviously, will be U.S. capitulation to the new reality.

In any case, for a time, national currencies (USD, GBP, JPY, etc.) will still exist, and currency trading between and among them will continue.

The demotion of the USD from its exalted position as the world’s reserve currency, to that of merely being the national currency of a bankrupt U.S., will be wrenching for the U.S. But, it will be a dramatic trading opportunity for those with the nerve to trade the ultimate collapse of the dollar.

• Second, the world will be brought under a single World Government, capable of issuing a single world currency which will replace all national currencies [I]and[/I] the recently-created reserve currency. At this point, currency trading will cease. There will no longer be euro, or yen, or yuan, or dollars which can be traded against one another — just as today there is no longer trading in German marks, or French francs.

Before this final stage — the introduction of World Government — the lesson of the European Union and the eurozone will have been learned. That lesson is simply this: a unified monetary system cannot survive in the absence of a unified fiscal system.

In other words, attempting to bind all the countries of the eurozone through a single, common currency, [I]without[/I] imposing on all of them a single fiscal regime, has led to the failure of the euro which we are witnessing today.

The powers who will institute the World Government will not make the mistake that the Europeans have made.

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You may think that this scenario is apocalyptic and far-fetched. But, it is currently being seriously advocated by the governments of China and Russia, and by prominent economists in Europe and the U.S.

The world has had just about enough of the selfish and irresponsible misuse of their reserve currency — the once-mighty U.S. dollar — by American governments which have seized on the opportunities for fraud and theft provided to them by a system which makes [I]one nation’s national currency[/I] the medium of exchange with which the entire world is forced to transact business.

The [I]current[/I] government of the U.S. has done more than all previous American governments to debase the world reserve currency. President Obama behaves as if the world reserve currency — the USD, which the U.S. Federal Reserve can create out of thin air — is his personal credit card, ATM machine and piggy-bank.

The world is about to hold the U.S. dollar accountable for the misbehavior of Obama, and of all the profligate, big-spending American governments which preceded him.

Obama will go into the history books as the worst president in the history of the Republic. Ironically, by setting the stage for an International Reserve Currency, and ultimately for a World Government, he may be seen by Communists, Socialists and other radical leftists as a great, visionary world leader.

Nice theory! I do envisioned the emergence of a New World Currency that going to replace USD as a medium of exchange for international trades between countries. Will a new fiat money being created? We never know, but my guess is Gold and Silver will once again take place as a medium of exchange that once used around 4000 years ago in the Babypips… I mean, Babylon. What do you think sir? Is there any possibilities? :33:

[GlobalMacro]

The One World order and the Illuminati are the favorite theory among the conspiracists who want to believe something organized is operating behinds the scenes of a chaotic world. The theory has been around for a long time without producing any evidence of a global shadow organization puppeteering events to further their cause. It’s akin to the theories that the US faked the lunar landing and that 9/11 was an inside job, theories typically held by the same kind of people.

The point about the USD being replaced as a reserve currency is possible, though not in the near future. It’s important to note this will not be a catastrophic event leading to the collapse of the USD and to global chaos. Before the USD was the global reserve currency, it was the Great Britain Pound that was filling that role. The pound and world economy survived just fine during and after the transition.

The point about a one world government and a single currency is EXTREMELY far fetched though. The eurozone can barely operate together under a single currency as it is, and this is with a membership of geographically close and mostly friendly nations. Monetary policy by the ECB applied to the entire zone is inappropriate for certain specific countries within that zone and end up causing them harm, creating dissent which inevitably leads to anti-euro zone political parties being elected which increase the odds of the zone breaking up.

Now try to imagine non-geographically close, and non friendly nations operating under the same currency with the same monetary policy. Not only is it impossible for political reasons to see the US and Russia and Iran and Israel all using the same currency, it makes no sense from an economic perspective as well. The floating exchange rate is a flexible and powerful tool that acts as a shock absorber for the country that no other tool can replicate. During good economic times, the currency tends to appreciate which acts as a cooling mechanism for inflation by slowing growth and activity to reduce the chances of bubbles forming. During hard economic times, the currency will depreciate, facilitating faster economic growth and recovery.

An example is Japan and its recent quest to lower the yen in order to tackle a specific domestic economic problem. A one world currency would take away this essential tool, would lead to an extremely unbalanced global economy where many member nations would be experiencing bubbles and hyper inflation due to overheating economies while many would be experiencing severe recessions and deflation. Even if it were to be established, these global economic conditions would create so much discontent and backlash that it would be quickly dissolved, with feelings running so high that militaries would get involved.

The chances are infinitely higher that the eurozone breaks up, then that the experiment gets taken to the global level. The world has watched the euro fumble its way through the debt crisis and frankly, it confirms how bad an idea the euro zone was to begin with, and makes any similar attempts in the future for monetary unions even less likely.

The advent of bitcoin does usher in possibilities of a global currency and the benefits that come with it, without eliminating individual countries access to specific monetary policy. Although I think bitcoin is overvalued today, I think it will be here to stay and it has the potential to impact the global economy in some fairly significant ways. It will most likely be the closest thing we see to a global currency, yet it will be so in an environment that still includes all the currencies we see today.

[jotekfinance]

Speaking of the USD decline… anyone read about Putin’s speech last week where he basically said the U.S. poked at Russia too many times and that they may, along with a lot of other heavy hitters, divest themselves of USD?

[FOREXunlimited]

@PipMeHappy

What happened to Jake (a.k.a. Forexunlimited)?

@bobbillbrowne

As I said bro, turns out he was one of these traders that realized that marketing themselves pays a lot more than trading does and used babypips as his marketing tool b4 being exposed. Then up and vanished like they do. He certainly sucked in a lot off good people with his undeserved wealth of knowledge. Pity he was an asset.

@PipNRoll

Sorry, I was just reading your responses. I understand your point of view. There are a lot of marketers around and fraud’s. It is sometimes difficult to tell who they are until later on. In my view, I welcome most of (not all) the post/contributions specially if that interests me and the value that can add into my trades and I can eventually use. I understand that when you are starting out you do not know who you should or should not follow. It’s tough I know, I’ve been there. In due time, when you gain more experience and knowledge, you will know…

Thanks Bob for pointing that out. I know other newbies can learn from it…

Bob and I have never saw eye to eye.
Since he appeared on the forum, he’s been chomping @ the bit to negate any post I made.

I’m so flustered @ what was levied against me, that I don’t even know where to begin to try and attempt a defense.

I absolutely hate having to do this…

1. I have never earned a single $0.01 from anything other than trading my own account, and my own funds.
2. The only “marketing” I ever did, was to promote my own site, which was just a free blog (more like an online trading journal) available to anyone, which I paid for out of my own pocket (web hosting fees). If you saw any link to any external site, or reference to any thing other than my own material, it was because I found information from that provider useful and wanted to share.
3. I owned no subscription based service, chat room, forum- nothing. As Bob mentions I “sucked in” a ton of people- what would I be sucking them into? I have no idea what you’re even talking about?
4. Where is any shred of evidence of any of Bob’s spiteful claims? I’ve seen zero. If he tries to mention the infraction I received from babypips- This warning was because I posted a link to a chart I tweeted about. Nothing more, nothing less. I wasn’t aware we couldn’t share twitter information @ the time.

It’s users like Bob who have complete anonymity and a platform to spew complete venom which isn’t vetted at all. Prove me wrong Bob.

This is one of the main reasons why I took some time off to re-think my approach toward trading. I needed to understand what I was trying to do from an objective viewpoint. I was so enamored with creating a brand for myself that I completely lost focus with the core tenants of trading. Thus why I pulled the website, and shut down all forms of social media- including leaving babypips for a break. If the community at large can’t see what I’m trying to say here, then I’ll ride off into the sunset. Either way, I personally know where my motives are and can honestly give two sh!ts about what one random human on this planet has to say about me. This whole post is contradictory to that statement, which is why I prefaced it with “I absolutely hate having to do this”.

Take it or leave it.

One more thing- “undeserved wealth of knowledge”??
I’ll take the compliment and shove the criticism up your a$$.

[vic84]

Yes there are good future prospective in the currency market, there are many emerging developing countries, which makes future perspective of the market hopeful.