Is there something like fear of being right?

Beginner Questions
1

I started to learn trading Forex seriously about 1 year ago. my focus at the time since the beginning was to learn, not to make money, as I know everything needs time to learn. I’m not afraid of losing money now, getting used to it after a while, and I kept losing as I was experimenting with every idea I can think of. (it’s cent account, I can’t take demo trading seriously but I’m not dumb enough to trade big money when I know there’s a big probability I’m just gonna lose it all while learning)

Now, about last month, something changed. I came up with some idea after some reading, and I tested it on the market like usual. The thing is, this time it gave me a promising results. and then I keep winning.

I’m not sure, but I think it messed up my mind somehow. At first, I was happy, as I thought I finally understand it enough to be able to profit from it, I’m able to predict the movement. But now, it spooked me out more when my analysis played out in the market with pretty great accuracy.

I know I need to believe in my own opinion and analysis, but I also know not to be overconfident. I’m afraid that if I believe myself, then I keep being right, I will have that overconfidence and it will destroy me. am I being too paranoid or overthinking? is this anxiety?

Somehow, my feeling is worse now than that time when I had the biggest drawdown in my equity curve. I can’t really concentrate on analyzing the market.

Everyone talks about fear of losing, but I found almost nothing on fear of being right. is this actually some form of fear of losing too? What’s happening?

2

Don’t worry, Forex will ensure you lose soon enough…

Personally, i have invented a couple of my own predictive method. Nothing works all the time, eventually i have to work on another method. After sometime, i went back to my old methods, and it works again! SUPRISE!

3

Interesting theory. I think I remember Mark Douglas(?) writing years back in one of his books that some traders didn’t believe they had earned and deserved the money they’d made and sub-consciously took whatever risks they needed to to erase it.

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4

A lot of new emotions will come and go as one starts trading. Over time they will either fade and you can continue or they will paralyze you to the point of ultimatum - it either destroys you as a trader or you learn then and there to deal with it and it will be gone. Not to sound sensational about it but that’s more or less how it works.

To give a more simple example, a lot of new traders have anxiety about watching their trades, to the point that it causes them to wake up in the middle of the night to check their positions. Over time however, most people can sleep through the night because they know come morning, it will be either TP/SL or still active, and there is nothing they can do about that. Those that can’t deal with that… well they usually don’t stick around as traders.

IMO this “fear of being right” is another different but similar emotion. If you trust your analysis enough, and do not require needing the dynamically change TP/SL during a trade, then over time you should be fine. The win rate matters, but only enough over a sufficient number of trades that you should not take each trade with the emotional burden of 100.

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5

You will experience various types of fear, the one you mentioned looks like fear of making right decision but taking profit too quickly. It’s the opposite feeling to greed but try to stick to the rule "let the profit run and you will certainly see how your trading performance improves

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6

Fear of success is a known problem for some people - who will do all the groundwork in many spheres and then just when on the verge of success - will “Self sabotage”

Van Tharp (either he or Elder) had a client with the same problem - which manifested as a finacial account “ceiling” - he could trade his account Up to that level, but then would do some losing trades to prevent himself from breaking through and becoming “successful”

You MAY find the roots in childhood - when someone may have told you (or implied it) that you should “know your place” - or not to “show your dad / brother / uncle up” (or you may have decided that yourself - ( I think the “client” I spoke of had an injuction not to be more successful than his dad ? )

Or you may just find it is a “Self Esteem issue”

Does that sound right ?

[Edit - You’ll find something about it on page 3 of this pdf - items 7 & 8 in “Injuctions” - Oh and Karpman DOES know what he’s talking about ! ]

http://karpmandramatriangle.com/pdf/wildestdream.pdf

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7

Try to create a list of rules, write them all. Then, before every trade, mark all of them.
I know it seems too obvious, but I had such problem also, and that was the only way to solve it.
When you have such list, you start working with rules and trades are just routine.

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8

I did lose, and ocassionally still am, already checked the ‘I’ve blown up my account’ list, sadly.

The difference is that in my past, it was more like, I was winning, and then I manage to lose it all plus more. Now it’s more like, if I was losing, I manage to win it back plus a bit more.

I agree with you, nothing works all the time. But basically I’m just using support and resistance now, and they are everywhere. I’m using different method for different environment though.

Thank you for your feedback!

9

Yes! I remember that too.

I think there’s a couple of trades that I feel like I don’t deserve to win it because I feel that it was just a lucky guess. And being lucky is not sustainable, I don’t like it because I’m not sure whether I can replicate those winning trades.

Yesterday I was entering a short that shortly after, I believe I made a mistake on entering that trade. I exited after it reach break even, and then price reached my initial target point. I didn’t feel bad for not staying in the trade and exit prematurely, because I think even if I won that trade, it felt like a lucky guess, because I didn’t believe in my own analysis…

Is that kind of mindset wrong? There’s something missing, and something bothering me, but I don’t know what yet…

Thank you for the feedback!

10

Thank you for your feedback!

I think it’s a good thing that I believe in myself, that in the future I’ll resolve this inner problem of mine.

I have little problem on sleeping over some open trades, my problem is more when I open the chart after a couple hours not looking at it, then I tend to change my mind and doubting my initial analysis.

Maybe you’re right… After losing a lot, maybe my win rate hasn’t given me much for me to believe in myself… Maybe I should just keep trading, and if it keep proving me that I choosing to believe in myself is a better decision, my problem will be automatically solved then…

As I wrote all this, it got me thinking, I think it’s another form of fear of losing too, or at least a mix of it… On every trade that I took now, there’s doubt whether that trade would be the start of my drawdown again…

Thank you again for your insight.

11

I’m still working on that.

There was one time where I let my profit run, and it’s giving me a huge return. Then, I believe that there’s a big probability for the movement was coming to an end, and as I was watching it, I’m telling myself I should exit and that’s the end of it. That if the price telling me it’s gonna go up again, I’ll enter again later, but I should just exit at that time.

But then the telling of ‘let the profit run’ came into my mind, and it contradict my own head. I thought then, that can’t be the top, I mean, I can’t really predict the top that accurately, right? It messed up my mind, and I think greed got mixed into that too, somehow. And I let it run.

In the end, it really was the top, and I gave back almost all my profit I made at that trade, it messed up my own judgement. And maybe that’s one of the reason why I chose to take my profit too quickly now.

So, I’m still working on the balance between them. I think you got it right, I have that fear of making the right decision. But I still don’t know why. Maybe I have a confidence problem, and I should fix that first.

Thank you for your feedback!

12

It takes time to condition ourselves mentally. It could take years of fine tuning. Analysis only tells us bullish or bearish bias, and is just part of the equation. Ultimately, we as trader need to develop a high level of perceptive trader’s instinct. We must learn to trust our gut. There is nothing wrong in trusting our own intuition. It seems to me that you lack focus. Do one thing at a time. Step by step, focus your thoughts. Don’t jump from one subject to another.

In trading, have a daily or weekly bias. If you think it is bullish. Stick to it, look only to buy. When your gut tells you it is wrong, get out. If later on you realize that your gut is wrong, and shouldn’t have gotten out of the trade. Jog down on your trade journal, do a self reflective report on why you got out of the trade. What are the factors that cause you to close the trade. Remember the mistake, and try your best to never repeat the mistake again.

" Sometimes, fear is good. Sometimes it’s a good thing to have a little bit of a reality check. "
Taylor Hanson

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13

I was thinking about that too, but I thought that it was not the fear of success, as I don’t feel like I’m successful in this, at least not yet. But your words about ‘the verge of success’ made me realize, maybe that’s it… so I did some googling and part of it kinda resonates with my problem.

Yes, I think it’s Van Tharp’s, I haven’t read any of Elder’s book though. You made me remember about similar thing, Tonny Robbins’ analogy on room temperature or air conditioner or something about success. That we are gonna try everything to set the temperature to be what we’re used to. Now I’m thinking maybe I’m used to losing and then when I started to really win, I get uncomfortable?

It’s weird, I remember a couple days ago that after some string of winnings, I lose, and all I felt was relief. It’s oddly comforting, it confused me, and it scares the hell out of me. I mean, it was a loss, and why did what I feel was relief? Maybe I really have that resistance ceiling I need to breakthrough…

Maybe it’s my childhood problems too. I actually had some argument with my siblings not long ago, and it frustrates me that I can’t really be honest with them. I just realize that the mood swing I experienced right now started after that event… Maybe it relieved some bad part of my memories that related to self esteem and ‘knowing my place’ and somehow it affects my trading…

I need to do some self reflection again I think.

Also, thank you for the pdf, it’s a good read. I read point 7 and think that maybe it’s one of the reason that’s holding me back, I’m still having doubt whether I’m gonna make it here or not. I’m a low-key person that even posting in a forum is weird for me, but I feel like I really need other person feedback this time.

Point 8 is not really a problem though, one goal of mine is to surpass my parents. Good thing I’m not a conformist, as almost everyone around me are talking about point 1 like it’s the sacred rule.

Thank you so much, I really appreciate your feedback!

1 Like
14

Yes, thank you for your feedback! I’m still struggling on summarizing my method in a list of rules. I need to work on that too. Do you have any advice on that?

15

It probably means that you are seriously psychologically hurt, deeply deeply hurt by something or someone at some point in time. Now you probably subconsciously crave for pain and loss.

My suggestion is that you approach a social welfare service, discuss with them your craving for loss. See if they could help you overcome your craving for loss.

For the time being, you should stop trading altogether until you get the craving for loss issue sorted out.

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16

right, I think I’m just being anxious. I’ve been unable to really focus on doing one thing at a time lately.

wait, no, you’re a genius. I didn’t realize it before. but I don’t think social welfare can help me. what I need probably some funjuries.

thank you for pointing it out!

17

Get a grip of yourself. You got to develop the strength to overcome your urge. Have a clear GOAL IN LIFE! Work hard towards it. In this world everyone have their own fair shares of hardknocks in life. I know you have your own problems as well. Nobody say life is easy.

My recommendation is find yourself a mindsport like chess. It is a really really great avenue to express yourself. I guarantee you won’t regret it. Especially gambit style of playing.

Stay strong! May the force be with you.

18

Yes that is a good analogy - Similar to NN Taleb hypothesis perhaps - that our life scripts are generally set to proceed in line with our upbringing - unless a major force intervenes. We (You in this case) are clearly making the decision that you are going to be that force - Well done. :sunglasses:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/0141034599/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1536832758&sr=8-1&keywords=taleb+black+swan

It does sound as though you have developed a system which looks good and were perhaps relieved to find a loss demonstrating it wasn’t as good as you had thought (feared? ) - Maybe your subconscious sees that as a chance to “do more learning” - instead of having to ‘trade’ ? - hence the ‘relief’ ?

I see @alphahavoc quotes the same extract and advises you to stop trading and seek advice. My own view is that whilst ‘Advice’ may be helpful, it depends hugely on the capability of the ‘advisor’ - I don’t think you need ANY excuse to “stop trading for now”, since that would lend support to the ‘fear’ by postponing any possible ‘success’ - I think you really would benefit more from continuing to confront the problem (since you now seem to know what it is likely to be) - Turn up that Central heating and look to beating the fear, by constant repetition of the challenge to it and gradually realise that success is really quite a NICE feeling :smiley:

It may be helpful to know that I used to have massive ‘Social Anxiety’ and by joiniing a ‘drama group’ and forcing myself to perform in public - that has helped - Not ‘cured’ yet - but much less than it used to be (It has taken a few years though - but I don’t get “stage fright” anywhere near as bad as I used to ! )

I think the ‘sibling thing’ is relatively normal - I don’t really knw anyone who has a harmonious relationship with siblings - not as much as we might hope for anyway. (Sibling rivalry ?)

Here’s a quote I have framed and hanging on my lounge wall ;

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/1033193-if-you-think-you-are-beaten-you-are-if-you

19

I am sorry but i haven’t heard anything like this. There are many phobias in the world. Maybe you could be the victim of one of those. There are more freaky things in the world than this. hope that you can get rid of it. I am hoping for your best. Please, let us know of your progress.

20

Same opinion, and the treatment is; practicing more and more! It takes time to overcome.