we went to a friends house at thanksgiving for dinner. There were two pies for desert. I said that’s not enough we need 1.14 more pies… they all just looked at me…
PI R square and cake are round.
Pie are round — Cornbread are square.
lol
i don’t think I can top that one. Back to trading…
Clint, TalonD, mastertang, et al:
Regarding news trading - if my broker offered OCO (One Cancels the Other) and I waited for the NFP and then placed an OCO, could that not be profitable? If the long is triggered, the short is cancelled. It assumes that the broker places news orders, and quickly, and the spread stays reasonably close to normal. The trade would have to be monitored closely as the spike most likely will reverse but not always. Dumb non-thinking or possibly a strategy? Comments please.
I see where you’re coming from, but the danger there, is the fact that often price doesn’t just go one direction on those news announcements.
It’s more often a spike one way, followed by a dramatic move the other.
So if a short got triggered first, your buy is canceled, and price takes a solid move the opposite way of your trade.
Take that with a grain of salt, but that’s my personal observations:)
Even though it happens predictably often I’m not sure how tradeable it is. Everyone always says stay away from NFP so I always have. Don’t the spreads increase at that time and isn’t slippage or not getting your orders filled a problem during that spike ?
you trade the NFP? Hows that working out for you?
Yes, the spike would be where the profit is which is why I said it would have to be monitored carefully. Or use a modest TP, and an even tighter SL, and load up with many lots as a scalper would do. Cubanpips, nice to see someone has a handle on this, care to share your strategy re. news?
:rolleyes:
Arguing with some of the people here was like arguing with a bunch of creationists.
You give facts, they respond with analogies, personal testimonies and strawman arguments (like the infamous hamburger analogy). Nothing resembling evidence ever comes to the table. Because there are none.
Now I don’t know what religious affiliation some of you belong to, but if you consider yourselves rational, then please recognise that you are taking a very cult like approach to trading. and whats worst, your money is on the line. Why are you so rational when it comes to philosophy but so completely superstitious and irrational, having no consideration to evidence, when it comes to the management of your own money.
Here is the first few pages of the book a random walk down wall street, which contains a synopsis of all the studies that prove that trading it is impossible to make money through trading:
‘A random walk down Wall Street’ de Burton G. Malkiel
There are 3 conclusions:
-
If trading is so profitable, then why are 80% of wall street traders (you need to be the best of the best to even get into wall street) unable to beat the market average. and the market average isn’t a very high standard. For the past 10 years, the market average was minus 5% per annum! They lose money faster!
-
If trading is so profitable, then why do the 20% of traders who did beat the market average instantly lose all their money back to the market after one year?? Like George Soros and richard Dennis (of turtle fame)
-
If trading is so proftiblae, why are there no traders on Forbes magazine? Why are all the rich people in the world long term investors?? like warren buffet.
-
If trading is so profitable, why does EVERY study to date indicate that trading is no more useful than flipping a coin.
-
If trading is so profitable, why aren’t you (not pointing fingers at anyone) making money from it after years of research? Are you stupid? or is the system the one to blame?
-
If trading is so profitable, why are some people here unable to come up with any studies that support trading? Why are they coming up with lame excuses like that if they produce evidence, this thread wouldn’t go on? Why can’t anyone even come up with a backtest result?? This is evidence that some do not know what they are talking about.
There is too much evasiveness and lack of honesty.
- If trading is so profitable, then why every single time an argument is refuted, the refuted person instantly tries to change the topic and fails to address the refute? More evasiveness.
1 Like
aren’t turtles environmentally protected?
On the contrary, spikes are used by EMH theorists as the main proof of efficient markets.
When there is a spike, traders can only get in at the top when the move is already expired. Unless your limit orders can be executed accurately during the NFP announcements (which they aren’t, I guarantee you that there will be slippage of 50 pips or more, limit order or not) , then spikes are really going against your argument.
Thats basically what the EMH is: By the time traders get in on a move, the move is already done, because markets are more efficient and quicker than they are.
Spikes are the cornerstone of the EMH.
I can’t.
While it is possible to decode the algorithm, forex is a completely different thing.
Forex is a constantly changing algorithm, so it doesn’t matter whether one has decoded it, because they have only decoded the “algorithm” governing forex one second ago, which is totally different from the forex “algorithm” that would exist in the future.
So this example cannot disprove the random walk fact.
Agreed.
Although this thread has turned into a circus, and some guys are even posting their trades on it.
Bravo !! … saying it as it is.
Okay…
Here’s what we’ll do.
You pick the broker, and open a demo account.
Send me the log in info, and pick your technical trading system. I don’t care what you pick. Anything from chart patterns, to a coin flip. Matters not to me.
I only want you to open the account, so that you KNOW I’m not screwing with numbers, and let’s see what happens.
It’s not the brush, it’s the artist.
Mind you, I by NO means am a guru, or related to Kreskin. But I AM consistently profitable.
So, the question becomes, if I make make money consistently using your parameters, what happens?
Are you a believer? Or am I just lucky?
Post your thoughts here, and let’s see where this goes.
I’m tempted to respond but it’s as pointless at tits on a boar hog. (thats an old southern expression) lol
anyway… I met Kreskin once a long time ago… amazing fellow.
Turtles endangered… yeah I love animals… they’re delicious!
Proud member of PETA (people eating tasty animals)
You’re at the top of the food chain, get used to it… well some of us are anyway LOL then again some of us are just fish in a shark tank.
Wow. Tang has cut to the chase — as Tang is prone to doing !
A simple challenge, Mr. Lee. Do you have the stones to accept?
Jay, I hope he accepts your challenge. This will be a fascinating test.
I, for one, have gotten a little tired of Mr. Lee’s holier-than-thou attitude toward ordinary traders —
— who didn’t happen to excel on the high school debating team.
And I would characterize the flawed logic of his thread as follows:
I am a rational, logical person.
I am a miserable failure as a trader.
It can’t be my fault.
Therefore, the market must be irrational and illogical. And miserable.
And I’m going to find some “studies” to prove that point to everyone.
Maybe that will make me feel better.
It is ok. 98% of traders are anyway…
Ahem - Did I not prove to you that the market movement is in deed NOT random.
You seem to pick and choose where you’d like to talk and what you’d like to talk about.
So with that proof being valid, then you have NO choice absolutely mathematically NO choice then, you must believe that the market is predictive (Predictive is just a word used to replace Not Random, so don’t go off on that word please).
So if it is predictive, then someone somewhere somehow may be able to make the predictions necessary to make money.
You commented that the market is random in that it can go up / down / sideways.
Well heck that’s only three choices - right there you are statistically going to be right 33.33% of the time.
Now if only your money management will allow you to be profitable with such a low win rate.
well if somehow you get 10:1 return on 33.33 % of trades maybe your onto something.
It is getting interesting.
Not to be a ‘buttinsky’ here or anything like that but don’t you think this is going just a little too far:
…and pick your technical trading system. I don’t care what you pick.
What I’m saying is (well just speaking from experience anyway) that in order for you to be consistently profitable you have to have, by now, mastered a few different technical trading systems or methodologies that you know to work, for you, not so??? I’m just curious I guess. I mean to say I could furnish you with a veritable list of technical trading systems that I KNOW DO NOT work no matter WHO is trading them (based on paper trading them over a good few years worth of data at some point or another in the past two years or so). Of course: when paper trading the aforementioned technical trading systems that I KNOW DO NOT work I obviously had to make the assumption that they would be traded purely mechanically i.e. no subjectivity at all (especially not as far as the choice of instrument being traded was concerned). Perhaps that’s where the possible difference lies??? As I said: I’m just curious.
Regards,
Dale.
Having personal experience with both FX trading and watercolor painting I strongly agree with Master Tang’s comment… 
take a few seconds and think about it!!!
Asking “Is technical/fundamental analysis profitable?” is almost as silly as asking, “Can you build a beautiful home with a hammer?”
The questions should be…
“Are there traders that apply “technical/fundament analysis” that are profitable?” … yes!
“Are all traders that apply “technical/fundament analysis” profitable?” … no!
“Are there builders using hammers building beautiful homes?” … yes!
“Are all builders using hammers building beautiful homes?” … no!
[B]Great builders[/B] build beautiful homes, [B]talented artist[/B] paint wonderful pictures and [B]skilled traders[/B] generate profits.
It’s about being successful not about the tools. 
PS… Did you walk down the street today or bring your lunch?”
I would LOVE to see the methods that failed, because I believe EVERYTHING works.
My theory is this:
Every trade will eventually become a winner, and every trade will eventually become a loser.
Thinking that way, I can make no bad trades, I can only choose bad TIMING decisions.
So what is left?
Identifying momentum for better timing of trades, and a SOLID grasp of risk management.
And a HEALTHY dose of patience:)
Cheers!