I arrived at a stop loss of 27 pips and profit target of 27 pips simply by dividing Average True Range (14 periods) on a daily chart by 2. I won’t enter a trade if price is sat at the daily ATR. Eg, the daily ATR for AUDUSD is 54 pips. I wouldn’t enter a trade if the difference btn high and entry was 54 pips/low and entry was 54 pips. Another reason why morning entries are good as price hasn’t covered that much distance.
I’m over trying to predict the markets. As Merry Trader states in his first post, price will either go 27 pips in my direction or the other. My edge is simply pairing the strongest currency against the weakest as i’ve had a lot of success in the past pairing the strongest with the weakest.
oops 60 - 25 is +35, USDCAD just closed +30 , running total +65.
Had a little thought about optimising, but not just yet, but the thing is it can be easy to optimise, for instance i will be easy to work out if it’s better to place the trade between 10 and 11 rather than 9 - 10.
Well done Merry.
As I write my audusd trade is going my way but it has just found support.
Closed my trade for a 1 pip profit as I don’t leave trades open over the weekend and price is going against me. Have a good weekend everyone
Trading is as complicated as we want to make it. Trading can be as simple as we want to make it and I think MerryTrader and I are trading as simple as it can get. We just have to be right more often than we are wrong and if I can win on average 3 out of 5 trades every week then I will eventually become a millionaire.
winning more than you lose is nothing more than a fallacy (I personally believe) if you lose 60% of your trades you can still be very profitable still, just keep your loses small and stay with your with your winners ( cut your losses early & ride your winners, rule 101)
If you don’t agree… oh well; no skin of my back 
I’ve gone through phases of believing in high risk reward strategies but I consider them to be a fallacy because over time the market changes. Just compare the markets btn 1972 and 1992 with 1992 to the present day. For instance, if you’re in a trade with a RR of 1:3 and price goes in your favour by 2 units then the RR turns into a RR of 3:1. I.e., you’re risking 3 units to make the final 1. That for me is the fallacy!
Nothing I really fancied this morning, but I’ve picked the EURJPY long.
For me the CHF is the strongest currency and NZD is the weakest HOWEVER NZDEUR is already at it’s daily range, so no trade for me. EUR is the next strongest currency and AUD is the next weakest currency. All the NZD and AUD pairs are at/almost at their daily ranges so I was tempted to go long on USDCAD as the CAD is only stronger against NZD and AUD but there is red news at 1.30pm (CAD) and 3pm (USD).
I’ve put in sell limit orders on NZDEUR at 0.6415 (21 sl/21 tp) and GBPCHF at 1.5156 (36 sl/36 tp).
My order on GBPCHF just got filled.
If I’d have kept my AUDUSD trade open over the weekend then it would have hit its profit target this afternoon. Oh well.
My GBPCHF trade is under water and I expect my stop loss to be hit.
I’ve cancelled my order on NZDEUR as it’s nowhere my target price and there is red news due tonight from China and AUD.
Yes, I had one the week before Ii think it was, placed it on Friday morning, and just left it, it worked out.
Another 30 PIPS today running total now +95
And I’ve probably spent a total of an hour trading in the last couple weeks, pick the best and leave the rest.
Still a way to go to prove to myself if it’s going to be a valid strategy, but 4 winners 1 loser, can’t really knock that, much.
You’re doing well Merry.
If you were risking 2.5pc of your capital on each trade then you’d be up by 7.5pc. One only has to consistently make 10pc return on capital each month to make a very good living from forex.
Just keep doing what you’re doing.
Yes, and I can’t remember what 10pc a month compounded is in 12 months, and I can’t be bothered working it out, but it’s a lot more than 120% a year.
If you compounded your account, 20k would be 62k in 12 months and just over a million in 42 months.
Ah, great, so at this rate I’ll have £432 in 2 years
There should be little drawdown with the way you’re trading as the rr is only 1.1 so you could trade with high amounts and if you got a few winners under your belt to start with, as you’ve done, then you would never have to eat into your original capital.
Here’s praying the Gbp gets sold off tonight. Still in my trade. Not looking goodm