Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a short term bearish objective is at the 161.8% extension of 117.93-116.17/117.18 at 114.33. Longer term, we are very bearish and expect a drop below 111.59 in the next few weeks.” The decline from 117.18-114.84 is either wave 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 117.93 or the first part of wave 3.
The rally that unfolded this morning to 115.72 stalled right at the 38.2% of 117.18-114.84 (and former 4th wave). That rally is either completes a 3 wave rally or is just the first part of a larger 3 wave rally. Either way, the longer term structure is bearish and potential resistance is at the 61.8% of 117.18-114.84 at 116.28.
Strategy: Look to get bearish near 116.28, against 117.18, target TBD