Hi all, i am about to try somethink, i have two time shifted data feeds from two brockers with 1 h shift. So i enter when bouth are about to go same way. It could filter some bad trades, i will let u know.
why are you saying this is the worst week? I can see the EU is trending down nicely. Maybe this will not work good on trending market?
@aserafino: Yes it would be, it would be profitable trading any of the signals really :3
@jonkie76: aha thanks 
i agree that over optimization time and time again ruins systems and i am trying to keep this as simple as possible
@renda1234: thats interesting 
there are many filters that would filter out bad weeks like this but in the long run they drastically reduce profits :\
@mario777: This system works well in all markets ESPECIALLY trending markets :3 this week however is not trending, it is extremely volatile and at the mercy of news announcements and the greek situation, whipsaws everywhere! 
its just a crap market this week
@everyone: I am sorry to say this but my time has been cut short today :\ I am actually on my way out of the country right now for a couple weeks (not saying im going to disappear but i just havent had the time i wish i had to put into this), as far as adapting this strategy to daily candles i have found it is not possible as the news takes to great of an effect for effective trading without changing the system to the point that it is not the system and i dont have time to make a new system :\
I also (im really sorry) haven’t had time to make a checklist for trading, so it would be a good idea to individually make one for your trading whether it is this strategy or another, the number one killer of traders is emotions and if you have demonstrable repeatable reasons for entering a trade and you can look back on it and know exactly why you entered/exited, you’ll be very well off
I have found the final improvements i am going to make to the system and i will put up a quick post about it now and change the first post, as well as my trades for the week on a chart or two, after this i wont change it anymore as it already works wonders but everyone here can obviously take this strategy and make it their own one thing i did when i first started trading was go on this forum and look at peoples strategies, see why they worked, how they worked, and think about how they could be improved, and that is how we all should look to build our trading knowledge and skills 
Think of what a pin bar is, it is a visual representation of what happened from the open of a candle to its close, it shows that either the bears or the bulls were in control of the start of the session but at the end their counterparts gained strength forcing price to close back near the open (hence the small body), it is this obvious struggle that we take advantage of in this system, when we see the battle raging neck and neck between the bears and the bulls with no team with a clear lead that is when we go in
At any given time price can move two ways, up or down, so when there is a period of indecision in the market (signaled by pin bars, stars, inside bars etc.), we know that price is about to start moving either up or down, this is where we begin interpreting the way the market has moved to see who we think has the biggest chance of winning, the bears or the bulls
The way I determine who I think is going to win and pull price is by seeing how price moved between the first and last quarter of the 4 hour session, if the last quarter closes lower than the close of the first, sell, if the last quarter closes higher than the first quarters close, buy, its that simple 
Now what is the logic behind this? By waiting till the close of the first candle to start collecting our information we remove a factor called momentum, because price can only move up or down when it does start moving it has to have enough strength to move in that direction, that generates momentum because it has to have the strength to sustain that push in price, if we were to take in to account the open of the first candle then we would be allowing momentum that generated outside of that candle to blur the information inside of the candle which is the only information we need, be waiting for the close of the first candle any momentum generated is coming from inside of the candle and not outside from a candle we dont care about
So from the close of the first candle to the close of the final of the four candles we can get a pretty accurate picture of who has the upper hand at the end of the session without giving either team the momentum advantage at the start of the candle
So thats all good and great for pin bars but what about a more advanced formation, stars. Evening and morning stars are basicly pin bars, but pin bars that take place over three 4 hour periods instead of one, think of what they are
1.The first candle in the pattern contains the momentum of the previous candles and is continuing the trend
2.The second candle shows the struggle between the two forces
- The third candle shows who has won at the end of the fight
That being said although most of the time they occur over three candles, sometimes they can occur over very many candles, let me show you
As we can see there was the first candle signaling the trend in place, but than there was a series of candles in which neither team could get the upper hand, and by the time we had found out who the clear winner was because of the change in trend, we could see the battle raging on, so how is this a tradeable evening star?
Because, the candles between the trend in place and the confirmation of change in direction closed near where they opened, almost like a… pin bar! The reason this is such a good entry is because we see the battle raging and once we see who has won we jump on the bandwagon
Here are all of the closed trades for the week on AUD/USD 4 hour charts
Green Circle = Buy
Red Circle = Sell
Grey Circle = No Trade
Total on this chart for the week: +180 pips
Total on all charts: + 790
@Jawa: thanks for continuing to educate us!! Will you return to this thread after your trip to answer questions?
Ps. Have a safe trip!
@smacko: im hopelessly addicted to the forex, ill be on every day atleast once probably im going to the dominican republic and will have wifi where im staying so i should be on aha, thanks
Your as bad as me Working when on holiday lol
Well you deserved a nice holiday, that’s for sure …
ps. Can you please give me a nice set of rules for the Inside Bar when the signal is there? Like I asked in one of my previous posts? This will make it easier to implement in the Indicator to tell you whether the signal is BUY or SELL.
@jonkie76: sorry! i thought i had put that up with my previous posts :3 well here it is, and i’ll edit it in to the first post too:
An inside bar is a bar or series of bars which is/are completely contained within the range of the preceding bar, i.e., it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it
I only trade inside bars as a continuation pattern, meaning, I only trade in the direction of the current trend when an inside bar occurs
How to determine the trend: There are many ways to determine the trend but perhaps a simple way would be to look at the past major swing highs and lows, the reversal points in price in the market, if the previous swing was a swing high, sell stop! if the previous swing was a swing low, buy stop!
I am finding trouble trying to put how i do it in to words that are quantifiable hmm… maybe for the indicator if you took the highest and lowest prices within a range of the past 4 candles, and calculate how far the close of the inside candle is from those two prices, if it is further away from the highest price (the swing high) then sell, if it is further away from the lowest price (swing low), buy
Hi SithJawa,
Could you elaborate on why you didn’t trade candles 4,5 and 7 from the right?
Why are 2 signals circled with white ? Did you not open a trade there, and if so why is that ?
@slipp3ryWhippit: the candles 5 and 7 from the right i didn’t trade because their bodies were over 30% of the total candle length, and the fourth from the right i am currently entered on, in fact it literally just hit its half take profit, it was a buy trade i only filled in all of my closed trades for the week so i could give a flat number of profit, doesnt make much sense now that i think about it… well im tired, i have an excuse
@jonkie76: im not sure if i already mentioned this but i made the final changes to the now complete system and they are on the first post, i didnt trade those two signals because they conflicted with the new filter ive been tinkering with, had i not been trading with the filter i would still be in the positive however
I have been tinkering with this filter for a while now and its not even really a filter so much as an expansion on the idea of indecision, because if there are two indecision candles in a row and they both have opposing signals, which one can we trust since they both carry the same weight, i backtested it back 4 months on 2 charts and found that it increases over all profitability and does filter out some bad directional calls
EDIT: I added the color coding to the post with the picture
Man your quick! tx… exactly thats a hard part, as you ideed explained earlier with those 30 pips rule for the bears and the bulls to fight for. However there are inside bars that dont move that far…So indeed, that was the word I was looking for, quantifiable… nice scrabble word 
Ok, I’ll define the rules as followes.
- take the last four 1 hour candles (which are the insidebar itself on the 4 hour chart) (or do you mean the four 4 hour candles)
- define the Highest High
- define the Lowest Low
- define the average price of those two value (like this : Highest Price + Lowest Price / devided by 2)
- if close of InsideBar is higher as average price, place BUY order
- if Close of InsideBar is lower as average price, place SELL order
By the way , Jawa, could you email me like 3 inside bars of each of the four currencies. And than just tell me if you putt a sell or buy order there. (i dont care about outcome of signal, just the signal itself)
That way I can compare them, and maybey I can come up with an quantifiable rule that was correct on all of them.
greets
Jonkie76
ohh smart guy averaging the high and low makes a lot of sense
I did mean the past 4 four hour candles, because we need to determine the market bias to decide the trade, we dont even need the 1 hour chart for the inside bar
and hmm ill just put them up here itll help other people too i think
Jawa, here you say body is third of full length, in the first post you say 30%. Thats a difference of 3 % actually… For defining the right rules, this should be no discussion I think …In my indicator I changed the value to your first post which says 30%.
man you really are an awesome fella… Your even quicker as the Lightning :18:
This really helps to define the right mathmethical rule for buying or selling on the InsideBar…
Gonna programm this as soon as possible in the indicator.
I think the rules as defined earlier just fits in really nice :5:
@jonkie76: Sorry! I meant 30%, it’s nearly 5AM where I live and I’m too lazy to sleep (doesn’t have to make sense, I’ve been watching how I met your mother for the past couple hours, I can’t stop <\3 but it is 30%, I edited it in my response
And yeah your parameters looked great I think If you had to trade one price action signal the best one to choose would be an inside bar, extremely high probability because they only trade continuations which are much less risky then reversals