JÄWÄ's 'Experimental' Price Indecision System

Jawa, exactly where do you enter after the signal candle has closed? At market and then set a 40 sl and 70 tp? Or is the entry different for each of the setups.

BTW you could run mt4 with a trade management ea on a vps 27/4, that you don’t have to keep your home pc/laptop running. They start at about $10 a month.

@smacko: i enter at market at the close of the signal candle for all signals except inside bars, on inside bars i place pending orders :3 and as soon as i’ve entered all my trades i place my stop losses and take profits

do you have more information on a good trade management EA? Because most of the time i have price alerts sent to my phone at all hours of the night so i can get up and manually close half positions because i hate leaving my laptop on, and the partial close EA’s I have have been very glitchy, sometimes they work sometimes they dont :[

Jawa, I’m currently playing with ea’s named multi-purpose trade management and cl_m_02 complete trade management. Found them on the ff forum. Demo play only for now.

Do you have a quick way to calculate the lot size based on your risk % on your mobile? I’ve got a script for mt4 but doesn’t help if I’m not at the pc.

@smacko: yeah I have both of those, and manageTPv2.4 and swiss army EA, they are terribly confusing :\ im probably going to just get one commissioned, if i do i’ll post it to the forum

And no i dont unfortunately, normally i just use my head :open_mouth: the way i do it is i find 5% of my total account size, lets say its $1,000 then we obviously know that 5% of that is $50, and since my stop is 40 pips i’ll use .12 sized lots (12,000 units), because 40x1.2=50, that is a rough way of doing it but it works :stuck_out_tongue:

EDIT: Position Size Calculator, Forex Position Size Calculator i just found this, you can use it from your phones browser and it only takes a second

Jawa, thanks for the link and answering all my questions, guys like you are why this forum is so great!
Have any of your friends/family started trading this new system?

well i myself only learned because of guys on this forum so its awesome to be able to finally help people out too :smiley: My family (and friends) invest in a wide range of things such as stocks, real state, commodities etc. but there are a few who are looking into the forex now because i have had success with it, aha THAT BEING SAID!! one of my friends has been trading this system this week and last week and is failing miserably :stuck_out_tongue: its almost funny to see him fail (probably just because i’ve known him for ten years and its hilarious to see him complain), there are a few problems he has but all of them are detrimental to his trading success, i myself have made over 2,000 pips since the start of last week while he is somehow -600ish

The biggest problem he has is not following the system, he forgets some of the basic rules:
For an order to be valid the first and last candles wicks have to be traveling in the direction of the trade (the wick of the first candle must be higher/lower than the wick of the last candle)

If on the 1 hour chart the last two candles in the signal are pin bars or long wicked candles zoom into the 15 minutes and use zone jumping to determine direction.

If 3/4 candles bodies on the 1 hour chart touch both EMA’S, do not trade that signal.

out of those especially the first one has gotten him quite a few losing trades, another thing he seems to be doing is being an emotional trading, not only is he not following the system but he is operating on “hunches”, he feels the market will go a certain way so he will either get into trades for no reason when the signals aren’t there or get out of trades early for a loss or small profit, also it looks like he has 20 or so small losses of a few pips each, probably because once he got into a trade he lost confidence and exited, or (and i know this was a problem for me) he saw the market move drastically in a very short span of time, got afraid, and exited a trade, im pretty sure these are all common mistakes but really they all go back to psychology, you cant let your emotions rule your trading, thats why we trade rigidly with dynamic systems! the system interprets the data and finds the best trades for us, all we do is the footwork

EDIT: he is on a demo account, aha i would never let one of my friends throw away money like that :stuck_out_tongue:

DOUBLE EDIT: for anyone wondering about how this system is doing this week, it is doing slightly less than average because there have been tons of news announcements causing irregular market movements, currently I am only up 300 pips total trading 4 charts this week, obviously it is only wednesday morning but this is so far the worst week in months, i think its pretty safe to blame the European crisis :3

@jawa Let us know how your week ended.
Maybe not trading around news would have net you more pips.

@smacko: I will :smiley: and yeah but the problem is i have trades open for a day sometimes two, i cant help but be affected by the news because i am a more medium term trader, either itll make me money or lose me money, regardless i dont want to have to watch out for every news release, i dont have the time or the desire :3

Hi SithJawa, given there are larger swings when trading on the daily charts would you still recommend 40SL 70TP?

Seems like these would need to be bigger or determined by surrounding action?

I have written an EA for this system and started running it on my account last night.

This bot should follow all of the rules listed, although in looking for pinbars the only requirement that it is using is that the longer wick must be > 50% of the candle size. I have found that this makes it easier for the script to find more indecision bars.

On the chart you will see markings such as P-B, S-S, etc. The first letter tells whether the script found a Pinbar or a Star pattern. The second letter is either a sell signal or a buy signal.

There is some code for inside bars in the script but it is not presently being used. In my testing I found that trading just using these bars as a signal did not provide any real value. I am sure there is some use in managing an existing trade though.

I am open to any feedback, although I may not implement it. Feel free to modify this script to your liking.

Please test this and only use it on demo.

EA - JAWA Price Indecision System.zip (5.27 KB)

Hi Jawa,
I really like the way this system looks and I am trying to get used to it by doing my own backtests. I ran into this where on the first pinbar the one hour chart showed a good long entry. The next 4hr candle also appears to be a pinbar so I checked the one hour charts again and this time it was a no trade.
What would you do in this case? Do you leave the position from the first 4hr candle open or close it?

The two 4hr PinBars


The 1hr chart for the second pinbar


Thanks!

@ Darklighter: I’m not sure the first signal really counts because the nose (shorter wick) of the candle is much greater than 25% of the total bar on the 4hour chart.

For the 2nd signal, I too get a little confused about how to evaluate the wicks on the one hour chart. Would that technically be a sell signal? The first and last candle both close in Zone 3, and candle 4’s wick (the longer wick on the cande) is lower than candle 1’s wick. I think I understand most of the system, but could use a little help with this last point on evaluating wicks on the 1hour chart.

Thanks for sharing this with us Jawa. I look forward to eventually testing it out.

@slipp3ryWhippit: 40sl and 70 tp is definitely to little for the dailies (I think my sentence structure was confusing in one of my replies if that’s what made it seem like I thought it was), you really have to go chart by chart, I’m sure even just doubling them would work, looking at it now the average move is over a hundred pips on the dailies so that should work, although if I were to trade the dailies I might tweak the system a bit, i’ll look into it today and get back to you :smiley:

@Jonah: that is awesome!!! i’m already testing it and it looks good so far, thank you so much for doing that :smiley: i’ll let you know what I think about it after more testing

@Darklighter: I completely ignore the invalid signals, so if I have a trade In place already it isn’t affected by a signal we don’t take :slight_smile: meaning if I had taken that long entry I would have left it open for profit, however as Bavarious said it wasnt a valid pin bar as the long wick wasn’t 50% of the total candle width, and the nose wasn’t less than 25%, so I wouldn’t have trusted that candle in the first place :open_mouth: but here are some other potential trades I saw


1.Inside Bar, I only trade Inside bars as continuations but I would say that it had already started its up trend, normally I just look at the lowest swing price and see how far away the current price is from that, you can see at the low of that first really low wicked pin bar it had traveled many many pips upwards already

  1. Another GIANT inside bar setup

  2. A potential pin bar, and I think it would’ve been valid just by looking at its placement on the 4 hour :slight_smile:

@Bavarious: Basicly we want to see price reaching a new 4hour low/high in order for it to be valid, so if we are looking to sell than the last candle has to have reached a lower low than the first candle in the 4 one hour candles of the signal :3

What happens if on the zone jumping (1H CHART) the first candlestick for example closes at zone 3 and the last closes at the 2nd zone… Then there is no TRADE right?

@aserafino: No there is a trade, a buy trade, because price jumps from zone 3 upwards into zone 2, i hope that helps :3

@Jonah: sorry noob EA question. If i’m placing the EA on all four pairs, the pair field it contains the pair i want to trade and the 1st/2nd magic number needs to be unique for each pair?

@Everyone subscribed to this thread: As i said in the title of this thread this method of trading is experimental, i am a bit of a perfectionist so even though I have been trading this system I have continued to look for ways to improve it (not over-optimize), and earlier today I came to a few realizations about the current system and found ways to improve it drastically, here is a list of all of the changes (from the top of post#1 to the bottom) and why I have decided to implement them:

Removed from system:

EMA (5), EMA (10), (zone jumping): The original idea for adding the EMA’s was to use a psychological support to measure the strength of potential reversals, for instance when i saw an indecision candle I would zoom in to the 1 hour chart and see where the strength was, to see if price would break through these imaginary supports and resistances, and that is how i came to the zone jumping idea, that by seeing price dance around these psychological levels we could better determine where price would go, and it was and still is a valid idea HOWEVER I realized earlier today that the reasons they work is not what i originally thought, Although they do work it over complicates the principal they are trying to exploit

I noticed that nearly every valid signal could also derive direction from a candle close to candle close basis, meaning the fourth 1 hour candle in every 4 hour signal had a lower close than the first candle (if selling) and a higher close from the first candle (if buying), this led me to wonder why even with the difference between pin bars and reverse pin bars this was a consistent signal

The fact is reverse pin bars and pin bars both signal indecision, the difference between them is the way they do it, a pin bar typically overextends in the direction of the current trend and retraces back near its open, a reverse pin bar is the opposite as it overextends in the opposite direction of the current trend and retraces back near the open of the candle, these two different ways lead to two complete different types of stories on the 1 hour chart, which made me think of elliot wave theory!

I probably wont be able to explain my reasoning behind this but i realized that the waves within each 4 hour pin bar could almost be compared to an inner trend within a signal, because each signal is an indecision candle we can assume that before the indecision signal there was a trend in place, and after the indecision candle there will be a trend in place (either the same trend or the opposite), this made me want to compare each individual one hour candle to a swing, and if the final swing in this period of indecision is higher than the first swing in the period of indecision that would mean a buy, if it was lower that would mean a sell, and after tedious back testing i found this to be slightly more accurate then what the system currently used and much simpler…

Notes: Originally the wick idea was a basic form of inner candle swinging so there is no purpose for it anymore as that is what the whole system is right now, also the need for candles to be not all touching the EMA’s is gone too as this is a more accurate filter anyway and will normally catch the breakout that would result from price riding the EMA’s

Added to system: Instead of using zone jumping to determine entries, all we do now is look for the indecision candles, once we have found one we zoom in to the 1 hour chart and look at the first and last one hour candle within the 4 hour signal and determine our entry by the direction the closes are travelling, for instance if the fourth candle has a higher close than the first than we buy, if it has a lower close than we sell

The system is much simpler now and much more effective, I’m glad i posted it though otherwise i wouldn’t have been able to refine it so well, i will edit the original post now and put up new examples

Very nice, SJ. I’ll drop the MAs from my one hour focus charts and just go with this simpler idea.

Hey SJ, really appreciate the work and sharing that has gone into this. I like the new editions too. Makes it a little more straight forward for sure.

I have a quick question regarding your take profit. When you say “with each new order set new take profits (and stops) carrying the previous trade forward” tell me if I’m thinking about this correctly…

Let’s say a pin bar forms and tells us to buy, so we place our SL and TP accordingly. Then, the next bar forms and is also a pin bar telling us to buy, but the price has only gone up 20 pips from the initial pin bar. So the way I’m interpreting what you are saying is that now we have two trades going long, and we move the first pin bar SL and TP up to where the 2nd pin bar SL and TP are…so we now have 2 trades going the same direction with the same SL and TPs.

And had our first 40 TP been hit before the 2nd pin bar…then we would still have 2 trades going long with the same SL and TP, but the initial/first trade would only be at half strength since we already took half profits…does this sound correct?

Ha, hope all that didn’t make your head spin!

Aha I had to read it twice but yes that’s correct, that is the more aggressive way to do it and that’s just how I like it :smiley: with each new trade we reset the stop loss and take profit to the new trade