JÄWÄ's 'Experimental' Price Indecision System

Well whatever works is good :smiley: i would test it out and make the system your own, but yeah i have very tediously backtested multiple stop losses ant take profits and i have found these to be the best so far :slight_smile: On the weekends i close the orders by 4 on friday, 90% of the time any signal we are in or would trade on fridays is profitable come monday, however i like having my money in the bag, but thats just me :smiley:

Hey SithJawa,

I don’t suppose you had time to think about pip ranges for daily charts?

Also what is the methodology you conduct your backtesting? I’ve tried getting historical data but when I zoom in to the lower time frames every trading site I use defaults to current time.

@slipp3ryWhippit: I’m actually still working on that, i’m trying to figure out the best way to trade the dailies and im aaaaalmost there

As for my backtesting i just look back on my charts on metatrader, isnt that what everyone does :open_mouth: I just place vertical lines over all the 4 hour signals over a time period and then zoom in to the 1 hour where there place is still marked, than i filter the trades than calculate profitability according to the system

I thought you were going to say that but was hoping there would be a more efficient method.

@SithJawa
Post your tradings from this week today :slight_smile:

Thanks for answering the questions SJ. I’m happy to say that after not trading Monday, Wednesday, or half of Tuesday, losing 50 pips to some technical problems, and sleeping through a number of good trade opportunities, this method still got me 229 pips this week, which is much better than anything else I’ve tried so far.

Hi SJ, thanks for sharing your system. Can I ask how do you define your zones, and what is zone jumping, as mentioned in #1?

@slipp3ryWhippit: It works better that way because thats how i develop my systems in the first place, normally iwhen i make a system i start off with an entry, wether its an EMA cross, a MACD divergence etc. Then i look for a filter to match it (volume, stochastics, price action etc.), and then i tediously backtest each and every option for weeks, i have made many great systems this way, its a lot of hard work but its worth it in the end :smiley: thats how i made this system for instance, tedious backtesting, finding what is more profitable overall and things like that

@aserafino: i will tonight :smiley:

@philosophunculist: thats awesome!! I hope people will see that and be encouraged to try this, because i hate making claims as outrageous as “i make 1-1.5k pips a week doing this”, but that is the case :stuck_out_tongue: good luck next week!

@chadlerpoh: I actually ended up changing the system a bit midway through the thread, thats why there are posts that dotn make sense, every post after #37 is about the updated system and the system on the first post is updated :slight_smile: there are no zones just a close to close trading method :smiley:

I’m sorry to keep asking questions like this but I think I’m still doing something wrong. I was looking at this chart and from what I understand all four of the trades I marked were valid.
This is the EUR/JPY pair March 17th 2011.


Here are the one hour charts for the first three candles I marked.

Just barely a sell here.

Again a sell signal.

And a buy.

I would have been stopped out on all four of these so I’m figuring I must be doing something wrong. Should I ignore the first two since on the one hour chart the fourth candle closes so close to the first?
Thanks in advance! I really want to get the hang of this system.

Thank you Jawa for this very interesting method for trading.
I am looking for a ‘naked’ trading system for quite a long time now, and could not master my self anything without getting off the mehanical path and trade with all kind of personal descision making trades. And that makes it to emotional.

So, I build this first version of an indicator (yes I know there is already an ea for this, but for manual traders this is handy I guess) which calculates if the last closed bar on the 4 hour chart is a pinbar according to your rules, that the body of the candle should not be bigger as 30% of the candlelength and most have an long wick, which has at least 50% of bodylength…

It shows the result in the left upper corner of your screen. Thats all.

I am a newbie in programming ea’s and indicators and improving it further…
But this I build in about ten minutes…and so far its doing what it has to do.
Next improvement is to check whether the last 4 candles of the 1 hour time frame is a buy signal or sell signal. And than it should draw an arrow on the chart…

I called the indicator SEPIS (as for short for your trading system’s name)

Hope to see more of your examples! Looks very promising so far!

edit: Most recent version of the indicator is always to find in this post !!
edit: added check to buy or sell on pinbar
edit: added insidebar detection
edit: added check to buy or sell on insidebar
edit: fixed mistake on buy/sell signal on inside bar (26-05-2012 15:47)
edit: turn on/off mailfunction (27-05-2012 21:48)
edit: closing price of signal candle added to mail and on screen (29-05-2012 16:40)
edit: now draws an green up arrow if BUY signal and red down arrow if SELL signal (29-05-2012 22:16)
edit: changed pinbar rule 30 to 35% (31-05-2012 08:46)
edit: added morningstar and eveningstar for 3, 4, 5 or 6 bars detection (31-05-2012 20:32)
edit: fixed a major bug with candle calculations (06-06-2012 22:22)
edit: fixed a minor bug with candleformation definitions.(07-06-2012 15:45)
edit: accidently renamed Bar 2 to Bar 1,whoops, fixed it (07-06-2012 21:20)

Forget al previous versions!!!

Here it is : Sepis.zip (3.36 KB)

thank you again!

Jonkie76

@Darklighter: Its actually great that you bring up march 2011 :smiley: on the particular week those 4 trades are from you will notice that something big happened, A huge news event happened that caused price to break out of its month of sideways movement and shoot straight up 900 pips!! withing literally a couple days, that is a huge move!! now obvious under normal market conditions systems that trade psychology are successful because they trade under the normal market psychology, but when normalcy is broken traders start trading in unusual ways, a 900 pip move is extremely indicative of that

I’m not saying this system won’t have any losing days, but the chances of there being a losing week are extremely minuscule

So here is what you have to do, first of all ignore those 4 trades in a row and look at the whole week


apparently i forgot to circle the stars…

(the fact that our server times are different is irrelevant)

Unfortunately i don’t have access right now to the 1 hour charts of that week but that is also irrelevant, the average W/L of this system is near 80%, so lets assume we only won half of the trades that week :stuck_out_tongue: (which by looking at the way the candles formed is very likely to be more than that), just by that even with the stops we would be ahead, and now the most important factor in trading this system back then, our take profits and stop losses

you’ll notice the average move back then is more then 120 pips easily, therefore our stops and take profits would be somewhere closer to 60sl and 120 tp if anything, we decide our sl and tp based off of market conditions to compliment our Money Management and risk reward, the fact is in every system there are things that are unchanging and things that are dynamic, the entries and exits are rigid because they work during any market condition, the money management is dynamic because it changes depending on the market environment, So when we backtest that far back we have to look at each trade in the context of the market at the time and determine what our money management would have been

I hope that helped :3 but it looks like you are doing everything correctly

p.s. I am currently looking in to a way to try to cut back on opposing signals, i’'ll post it to the forum when i figure it out

@Jonkie76: THANK YOU :smiley: keep up the good work, i hope you learn to curb your emotional trading, it took me months myself… i am trying out the indicator on my charts although i think ill need to wait for the markets to start moving again to see :stuck_out_tongue:

Unfortunately I dont have time to post tons of pictures of my trades this week :\ i made roughly 1300 pips this week, indecision at the beginning of the week started me off behind on all charts but the market picked up Tuesday evening and i was able to ride the huge drops in price of the European currencies

To address any future question (which im surprised i haven’t been asked yet) of how i have so much margin to trade with while trading with 5% risk, a normal account would only be able to support about 20-25% risk being traded with at one time because they dont have enough margin to trade with more, so when i have 6-7 trades open on a run on one chart how is that possible?

First of all i trade with multiple accounts, secondly I give every account a 20% money buffer that i pretend isnt there, for instance if i have $1,200 in an account i pretend i only have $1,000 to trade with, this gives me some extra margin to trade with as well as a cushion to protect me from losing streaks, the alternative to this way of trading would be to lower risk to about 2.5% or lower, so you could have more trades open at once, when determining risk for a system it really comes down to one thing, which is better: The W/L rate or the Risk Reward? if you are winning 90% of your trades then it doesnt matter if you are only risking 1% of your money per trade, the more trades open the more money you will get on average, however if your W/L isnt that high but you have a great RR of say 1:2 or 1:3 then you want to focus on higher risk trades and fewer of them to get the same amount of money, those are my two cents atleast…

Hi, I am tryig to trade on 4h and 1h for long time using VSA and fibo. I will try your system it is so simple and nice. Do you think will it work when i trade only London and NY? Or are your backtests showing also big profits in asian session? Thank you for your time. I am trying to add some other filter like 15m VSA, but i am not sure it will improve it … Again thanks for this nice system.

@renda1234: This system trades equally profitably throughout all of the sessions as it is a longer term trading method, trading on the 4 hour charts is always like that because for instance the most profitable time of day (the new york london overlap) is just one candle long for the 4 hour charts, so you can trade it 24/7 :smiley:

I have tried every standard indicator on MT4 and many custom ones, i have yet to find one to filter out trades well enough to justify it also filtering out the occasional good trade, but im sure there is something better out there to use as a filter and i am ALWAYS looking for better ways to trade this (im a huge perfectionist, if thats possible in forex trading), i just have yet to find it :3

@Jonkie76: thanks for the indicator. are you able to add email alert function to it?

@Jonkoe76
Yes, if you can add an email alert it would be great :slight_smile:

@SithJawa

  • When a signal occurs for example BUY and the next signal is SELL then you close the buy order.
    But when the second signal would also be a BUY then you would move up the TP/SL of the first order or close it?
  • What do you think about GBP/NZD? This is also a volatility currency pair.

Thanks

Thanks for answer. I am not sure about the pin bar, do you trade it when it has no nose or very long wick or else what is your maximum from open to close on 4h to call it pin? I have some indi for pins but it is very selective. And next question if i may what if on 1h close(first candle) to cłose(fourth candle) is very near do we take the signal without thinking or should we check somethink. If i check this situation on ema 5 and 10 chart i see no zone change so continuation, but on close to close chart it is buy with 4 pips difference. I backtested it for some time and i think emas are better. Thank you.

Nice work Jonah, quick one do we run your EA on the 1 hour or 4 hour chart?

The EA is coded to trade from the 4hr chart per SithJawa’s rules. You can run it from any timeframe, but trades will still be placed from the 4hr chart.

Jonah in your EA, i noticed this line:

extern string Pair = “GBPJPYm”; // pair name

A couple of questions:

  1. Should this be GBPJPY, what does the m on the end of it do?

  2. Also as the pair is set to GBPJPY, does this mean the EA will only trade on the GBPJPY pair or any pair chart that the EA is applied to?

Thanks