I’m really onto a winner on USDJPY!
As you can see from the two screenshots,
price is clearly continuing the trend after a
bounce off 20
The only minor detail that’s missing is I
don’t know what direction!
one says up, one says down
I think HTF must hold more weight
in the meantime
PATIENCE!
I’ve been doing a lot of back testing on Reversals, trying
to find some way to confirm when Harmonic patterns
and Divergence is really indicating imminent reversal
I the end I was forced to give up. I could see no
way of consistently knowing this.
Trend following is a whole lot easier
With reversals I can do no better than my very first post
ie Engulfing candles
specifically, the candle must close outside Bollingers,
then be Engulfed within the Bollingers and confluent
with fast stochastic above 80 level and point in
a reversed direction (unabiguously )
If you are really selective you can have an edge
but generally, I am back in winning form with the
most simplest of PA trend following
Firstly, I should know I’ll probably win within one
second, seriously. If you have to keep looking, and
keep looking until you imagine some pattern emerging
then chances of success is based on illusion and
will be highly elusive in the real world of trading.
My strategy is basically price action, the 1 2 3 trend
following
I note how price is respecting MA, it doesn’t matter which MA,
the one it’s been respecting conspiculously
simply trade the pullback with the right colour candle and
confirmation
in SC below we see bounce of 20SMA and cross of ADX
and in such a scenario my trend strength indicator ie
red arrow and TRIPLE Line TPH window confirmation
is absolutely dynamite!
but only when PA has already indicated a set up
A few suggestions on what I do 1. Try pairing it with a momentum indicator such as CCI or stochastics 2. Look for reversals at key zones, not an exact price 3. Look for an entry signal on a lower time frame than you use to define the zones and enter a tranche 4. Look for the higher time frame reversal candle to form and wait for a retest of half of the top/bottom of that candle for another entry 5. Be aware of potential S/R zones on the lower time frame and exit your first entry 6. Try combining it with Bollinger Bands and enter at when the top or bottom band coincide with your key S/R zone 7. Enter only when your momentum indicator shows oversold or overbought 8. Add on a stochastics cross or CCI crossing 0 up or 100 down.
These are not things that work all the time, but it’s been working for me.
Dale @dpaterso is probably going to scold me for having an overcomplicated system hehehe but that’s several things I do, among other more complicated stuff.
Nope. You’re probably just a lot younger than me. By the time I’d analyzed all of that the trade would be long gone!!! LOL!!!
Told you before though: I like the colors.
It takes a lot of screen time, but becomes quite routine to do when you get used to it. Sometimes without thinking I get the feeling I should exit, and when I do soon enough it goes against me badly, but not always though. I try to listen to those hunches more these days,ight be my subconscious mind having gone through the process of sifting through what I see on my charts.
Actually, everything you suggest is exactly what I’m already doing,
except 0 and 100 Stochastice - I’ll look into that
But this observation is quite profound…
What is our definition of winning?
Winning is childsplay, it isn’t hard to close
the trade as soon as you are 1 pip ahead
Letting winners run is the received wisdom,
but you may have a long string of losers
that might cause you to feel less than a winner
I’ve referred to a guy who trades Divergence.
I followed his weekly signal and it never lost
in a year
He traded D1 Divergence in direction of missed
weekly pivots, enter break of trendline
a genuinely winning system but that wasn’t the secret
of his 100% success rate
He set a very modest TP . just 50 pips
I’m trading 2/3 very different systems to that and now
they are all winning
because I also get out quick, before things turn nasty
who out there is going to congratulate me on ‘winning’
50 pips on the Reversal trade below, when 550 pips was
attainable!
and another 50 pips on the trend following strategy
Seriously, have you ever seen a more boring screenshot?
and that might well be a major key to success
Both my strategies are extremely predictable
The only thing I, and every trader on the planet, can’t predict
is when those long 550 pip runs will happen. and when
you would do well to quit while your ahead at the 50 pip mark
Watching how other traders must be making the full 500 extra
pips when you’re out, may be too heartbreaking to bear
On the other hand, we may have a tortoise and hare situation
here
those 50 pip winnings do add up
I don’t use a stop as there are spikes and mischief afoot
but if you are strict, the trade does invariable go at least
50 pips
and I think I would know when to retire a trade, when SAR
actually looks to have merit, I wouldn’t reverse, but I think
I might take the hint
I’ve now had about seven consecutive winners, all boring
as hell, but I don’t think trading is supposed to be exciting
thats why the masses love Binary Options, it is truly an
exciting way to lose money!
Best week in a long, long time!
I said consecutive winners this week, that’s true in
principle despite what appears to be a negative result
below
The trade itself didn’t lose, and in fact is such a good
trade that I’ve re entered
but my variation on my trend following system (simple
bounce off MA) is very similar, a bounce off Ichimoku
kinko hyo
In a moment of purism I pulled the plug on the trade
because strictly speaking it would have been better
if price had penetrated or touched Ichimoku
before pulling away, but I was still confident it
would win and still am
At the time of closing the trade, I wasn’t thinking
that my weekly result screenshot would be tarnished
by a seeming ‘loser’
Actually if my image in front of my peers is the
criteria that unsightly row could easily be edited out.
but such an antic would negate the very purpose of
having a journal in the first place
That loser is in fact best left on record, as indeed are
all losers, that is precisely the point of keeping a record
where I went wrong and where I went right
Speaking of impressive winnings )
I’ve decided against an arbitrary 50 pip TP in favour of
18 cents profit when trading 001 Lot size
( actually 18 Polish grosze, about 3 cents )
I could bring back my trade managing software when
I realized that 50 pips on Silver was more like 10 pips,
so 18 cents on silver would be roughly as attainable as
on currency pairs, whereas aiming for 50 pips would be
5 x harder
Can I replicate these results every week?
No, some weeks the markets doesn’t print, nicely
convenient patterns that can be counted on to make
consistent profits
This is where so many traders go seriously awry.
They fail to close their platform down, and instead
try extra hard to imagine a setup forming which is
purely delusional
So it would be good to make a journal entry when
the markets are behaving thus, and especially
to expose any delusional behaviour should it
ever manifest itself.
I don’t know haw successful my current approach
will be but I do strongly believe one thing
there must be many profitable traders around the world
with a similarly simple method. who have found their little niche,
something seemingly unspectacular but produces
consistent results
For many of us, we are too easily enticed away from
such a simple, modest strategy by the lure of flashing
indicators or highly complex systems promising the
big bucks from your poolside laptop in Barbados
Chikou Span aka the Lagging Line
Thanks to the Baller for possibly filling a hole in my
education
I already know how important Support and Resistance is
but it can be tedious, especially when too many lines
clutter your charts
I can understand why Baller uses Chikou Span as his one
stand out indicator, and amazingly, I had already deleted
it from my Ichimoku indicator as superfluous junk, believing
the cloud was the only useful component.
It really makes the whole subject of S/R and WOS a whole
lot simpler
As we see in the screenshot, I had already set
TP at 50 pips, but note how precisely Chikou Span
confirms that as a likely level of resistance!
Hopefully I will be making a lot of use of this
amazing indicator
Well I see you’re trading on the daily time frame. So that already puts you in the “most likely to succeed” category.
Well I would prefer the M1, but find that to be the most guaranteed
to fail category
Interesting to note choice of TF can also be linked to age
Even professional traders who could profit from lower time
frames avoid them because of the stress factor, often leading
to premature burn out amongst floor traders
I can well believe that
but again grateful thanks to Baller
My losing trade that I went to great lengths to
excuse I now see as reprehensible
a glance at Chikou Span should have told me
that the last level of support was Jan 2016
and that is precisely the level I just opened
a sell trade!
ok, it might break that level for hundreds of
pips profit but that is completely irrelevant
Where was my homework?
This is where checking past S/R can get very tedious
but Chikou Span really makes it a breeze!
Don’t confuse age with experience. Then again: maybe the two are inextricably linked!!! LOL!!!
The other side of the coin!
We seen the missed 550 pips when settling for
a paltry 50 pips
Look at screenshot below
I just about managed my 50 pips with little sign of
more to come
Just explain your trade (merely for the sake of interest)???
Are you trying to follow @The_Baller’s strategy??? If so are you not supposed to have that cloud thingy on your charts???
They’re all usually history within 3 years.
No cloud required. Chikou Span alone does the job nicely.
Oh. Just remember seeing something that you posted somewhere at the top of your thread where that yellow line thingy comes out of the cloud and then you go with it. Something like that.
Ambiguity
No I’m not emulating The Baller’s strategy, at least not at the moment.
but regarding the cloud I have hit upon a problem
Price below is reacting clearly to 20 SMA indicating Long
but at the same time broken through and retested Cloud
indicating short
but it previously respected 20 after breaking through cloud.
The cloud is not helping, the word nebulous comes to mind,
clouding the truth
Now let’s see what happens when we scrap the cloud
Now the ambiguity is gone, we see two bounces off 20, the
current bounce supported by Stochastics
The less indicators the better!
Oh. No. I was replying to @The_Baller’s post above and referring to his thread. Sorry for the confusion.
