Jerome's Journal

[Jerome32]

So you carry on then. No problems or worries.

I’m sure there will be plenty of both ) but to be clear, I
am trading cents because I am not a trading genius,
which is why my account is 12% DD

From my very first post on this thread this has been
a work in progress. I sincerely hope the 25k views
don’t represent thousands of newbies following me
into oblivion

There are some very talented traders on this forum but most
do not keep a regular journal.

My journal is more consistentr than most, and whilst I may be a good example
in that regard, that doesn’t make me a consistently profitable trader

Regular journal keeping is extremely important and I am learning
all the time, but as of now I am still not consistently profitable

My posts are just me thinking out aloud, and I’m sorry to everyone
if I sound in any way authoriative in my writing

that might be very misleading, I have no special trading ability or
insight, and results regularly fluctuate between mainly winners
followed by losing runs

So far quite an unimpressive thread historically.

[dpaterso]

So far quite an unimpressive thread historically.

Nah. I wouldn’t say that.

[Jerome32]

Campaign
I used the word ‘campaign’ to describe two or three
approaches in order to win the war, maybe at the expense of
losing a battle or two

KC introduced the word ‘Scout’, and sorry to sound so callous
but a scout is expendable.

what to call Position 2 and 3?

Here is a campaign in progress where scout has failed

’Reinforcement’ trades must have very easy to hit TP

[frandlost]

KC introduced the word ‘Scout’, and sorry to sound so callous

but a scout is expendable.

@Jerome32 I was thinking about the scout situation and for me it’s such a “headgame”! Continuing the thought process I was thinking that instead of a “scout” drop in a “listening” device or “hidden camera” in the simple form of some type of anchor or mark where the scout would be. Perhaps a square/oval etc… or maybe cross hairs using the vert & hor. line tool. It would be doing the exact same thing as a scout but wouldn’t incure casualties thought you wouldn’t garner any “gold” either.

For me getting in is the hardest part. That sounds silly but once I’m in it’s managing and adding to positions. It’s a learning journey for sure!!

KC

[Jerome32]

For me getting in is the hardest part.

You don’t really know what is going to happen until
you’re in. so best not go in too big until you can see
what price is doing

You could do this by monitoring only, but an expendable
scout seems to work best. of course we are not talking about
a human scout or a real military operation, so I find myself
quite hoping the scout fails so that the trade falls back to
the next ‘line of defense’ with bigger returns

I’m not sure I need to actually defend anything, but these
are only metaphors. You could even say ’ the US cavalry’
to the rescue, or bring in ’ the heavy artillery’

it is indeed a headgame, so whatever works best for
the individual trader.

I certainly like the concept of plotting a military campaign,
which fully anticipates casualties along the way

firstly a reconnaissance, then move in with a Limit order and/or
a Stop order

and ‘Damage Limitation’ … very often scout position will move far
from entry, and you re enter at next setup. It becomes obvious that scout,
now well DD, will unlikely hit original TP, so you may close scout at the
same TP level as new Position, so you will still incur a minor loss on original
scout position, but DD will be reduced on it by about 50 pips, and as its
a small Lot size it really is an expendable business expense.

In fact many pros who use the campaign approach, never use the word
’loss’, but rather ‘rent’, as in business there are always business expenses,
and when you pay rent on your office each month, you don’t usually
cry over the loss, you just accept that rent and business expenses are par
for the course.

For positive trading psychology this is a very helpful way of thinking

[Jerome32]

@Jerome32

firstly a reconnaissance, then move in with a Limit order and/or

a Stop order

What am I talking about?! and no one picked me up on this!
I have placed so much stress on only trading the picture
perfect setups, and then place ten Limit orders? and what
kind of setup am I expecting them to form?

We have the hottest heatwave in history here in Poland,
and I’m obviously not concentrating.

I’ve canceled all limit order, and will monitor the scouts
that were entered because they were a qualifying setup.

Of course the idea is to go again when the next setup
presents itself, if scout didn’t work out

But overall things seem to be shaping up, I think I’ve
got a feel for the strategy, which is launching a campaign
utilizing two strategies, and is not just about recouping losses,
its also about maximizing profit. Some of my S1 winners
have really moved right out of a wide open BB and may
likely provide an S2

Here is a good test of discernment. The same pair, same TF

Should I take S2 on left or S1 on right? answer below

The answer is there is no setup!

An almost S2 with a non qualifying Stoch, and note what happened
to the previous bad stochs! and what happened to the one good stoch

Also I don’t like BB. it doesn’t look like its reversing, bottom BB
pointing up etc.

What about Strategy 1 (S1) on the right?

What S1? Thats nothing like an S1!

It hasn’t formed symmetrical pullbacks

if the trend had been pulling back to say, 20, and
had now formed an engulfing pattern at 20, perhaps
with a pin bar, with the body resting on 20
and tail dangling underneath, that would be a strong
indication to go Long, but we haven’t got any of that!

I wouldn’t even take a guess where price is going now,
I have no idea

[Jerome32]

Another Scout win on EURJPY.

Looks like I missed a good setup on AUDUSD

price had been bouncing off 33 and I could have
gone in at red arrow for 50 pips although 200 was
available.

if price retraces back to 33 I could go in if a convincing
engulfing pattern forms and 33 becomes a bit more
Bearish looking, looks a bit sideways at the moment

PS what MA am I following? I will literally follow any
MA 14- 20 - 33 - 50 - 100 - 200 if it is an MA that
price has been following, ( bouncing off )

[Jerome32]

I don’t recommend anyone read this thread in its entirety.

There has been much trial and error.

Much of this thread before June was a capricious work in progress
and will be a waste of your time. A wiser use of time will be spent
reading Mark Douglas ’ Trading in the zone’ or ‘Market Wizards’,
or even a thread authored by a consistently profitable trader on
this, or another forum like this.

Since June 2019 I have simplified down to two strategies,
one trend following and one Swing trading. They seem to
be shaping up well, but still, time will tell.

I would prefer this post be at the start of thread but that
doesn’t seem to be an option.

I may just have to repeat this from time to time

Nevertheless, I am flattered by the 25k+ views which
are a great help in keeping me accountable, and also
appreciate the many helpful contributions along the way.

[frandlost]

I have placed so much stress on only trading the picture

perfect setups, and then place ten Limit orders? and what

kind of setup am I expecting them to form?

This has been a big issue with me. Have to wait for the set-up and not place limit orders based on assumptions.

“Scout out!”

KC

[frandlost]

You could do this by monitoring only, but an expendable

scout seems to work best. of course we are not talking about

a human scout or a real military operation, so I find myself

quite hoping the scout fails so that the trade falls back to

the next ‘line of defense’ with bigger returns

I tried “marking” only scout entries … won’t work for me. I need someone in the field. Maybe it’s a quantum mechanics kind of thing!

[Jerome32]

Maybe it’s a quantum mechanics kind of thing!

if the ‘What the bleep’ team researched Forex trading I
seriously think our jaws would drop

a lot of very strange things do seem to happen

Actually there is a Quantum Mechanics thread on FF, but
with no reference to Forex, just a lot of pseudo intellectual
waffle. not useful

[Jerome32]

Another winner, one by one they seem to hit their targets.

Most trades doing well, except three

thee scouts that seem to have lost their way

How I deal with these will be crucially important

Ideally, waiting for a Strategy 2 to form

Here is the most delinquent scout trade thus far

[Constadino]

sweet my im following

[Jerome32]

Risk to reward ratio of 1:13

Something very interesting here

I was only really aware that four of my scout trades are DD
(read Defiantly Delinquent )

We have scotomas, or blind spots, which prevent us seeing
our self destructive behaviour

but what about our success?

I was truly unaware of any success at all, I see only DD,
so my bottle seems half empty

but just checking my accounts is quite a revelation!

only one significant loser, and profits over losses
equate to 184/14

Lets say I made $184k and lost $14k, which would, if sustained,
mean a risk to reward ratio of 1:13

the fact I’m playing with Polish cents is not the point here, thats
just about the decimal point after all. if you can make 184 cents
and lose 14 cents, you should be able to make a fortune in theory.

I think most traders could live with that

but too early to bring the champagne out. DP did make a very
good point, it only needs one delinquent scout who won’t
be turned back to eat away all that profit

so in the end it is all about recouping at least most of any
losses made on these scout trades, and maybe even
profit on the recovery trade

There is quite an element of scalping at play here

I tend to think of scalping on the Lower time frames,
but I do set very attainable TPs

thats the similarity

These easy targets are invariably hit

Part Two as DP correctly reminds us, how do we cope
when things do go seriously wrong

we don’t panic

You do get a feel for when a new trend has formed

Keep alert for opportunities to recoup

[Jerome32]

Chesterjohn's trade journal

Focusing on accuracy is one of the biggest traps in trading

Does anyone have any opinions about this? Not exactly
sure what Jon means

[frandlost]

May be something similar to winners turning to losers because they didn’t hit a very specific target. Perhaps if he is a golfer he’s happy with “that’s a ‘Gimme’” (Give me meaning close enough)

[Jerome32]

Some Possibilities shaping up

Gold still looks like it wants to come down after
its recent upsurge, will check on closing candle tonight

but BBs are all pointing ominously up

USDJPY looks a good proposition, having bounced
repeatedly off same MA

which MA?

not important. what is important is that it has bounced
off same MA consistently, but its 20 which is a firm
favourite

[Trendswithbenefits]

Hey @Jerome32… Try the DiNapoli Stochastic as a base for the Slope overlay… will likely improve your Oscillator reading… as opposed to the standard Stochastic… Gives similar accuracy with a smoother result…

Wow… MA20… this looks very familiar…

[dpaterso]

There’s something I don’t understand on this thread:

I cannot say for sure because I don’t have the indicator so it’s a bit difficult to align the indicator with the charts posted. I’m talking about what appears to be Stochs. (with a twist in the method of displaying them is all). But in just looking at those charts: seems to me that if you just went long when the thing was at the bottom and turned green and then went short when the thing turned red at the top then…???

Alright there’s obviously a catch somewhere and I guess you’d get chopped up in a range bound market. But with ironclad discipline i.e. risk management, position sizing, and being able to stop and reverse a trade even at a loss???

[Jerome32]

There’s something I don’t understand on this thread:

Only one thing! I would think most would understand almost
nothing! )

On Strategy 2 Stoch needs to be above/ below 90/10
and break through line

Strategy 1 Stoch agrees with retracement so may not
help us, it may, as above, tell us price is moving up,
but it doesn’t know or care that it may likely respond
to MA

It is a question of what to do when reading price
action conflicts with an indicator

it is easier to obey indicator which can be quite
objective, whereas reading price action is subjective.