Happy Brexit Day!
+58 pips, very happy with that. I wish we could have a few more
such Brexit Days!
Price could shoot up hundreds of pips more, given the occasion,
but late Friday afternoon is not exactly prime trading time. price
is tightly consolidating within a triangle at the momemt.
A breakout with Momentum would be tempting
but self control is the overriding priority, not greed glands
eager for quick fix
Importance of Fractals
I had to wait and watch for 45 minutes before taking
my trade yesterday
Price was refusing to break out of the Fractal box
a break out of the box often indicates momentum
It is essential that the market is actually moving
We see future levels where you would have needed
to wait for the break out. I didn’t miss much as I was
already in
but I need to note
You need to wait!
Even when you have a set up, you still need to wait for
momentum
5% in two days
Two good wins today, and even with modest level stake lot size
I’ve made 5% in two trading days, including a few losers today
Not saying that will be typical, but I should get better, not worse
Balance is £589 but I’m not counting the first £530 as that was
obtained deliberately recklessly to mirror my previous $US account
I’m not aiming for snipes 10% per day, but we see its doable.
I will simply take what the market gives me playing safe.
no more averaging or reckless behaviour
We’ll get back to reckless behaviour which is my stock in trade
but here is something few will be unfamiliar with
on this occasion I got it very right, previously I would have
given any gains back and then some
you can see how quickly the market can turn on you, but
as I say, just about all of us have such battle scars
Doing pretty good
Was doing ok on my previous Polish PLN account but there was a lot
of averaging involved. Averaging is gambling, counting on the
market moving your way. eventually you blow your account at some
point, it isn’t sustainable
Since opening a £UK account I have made £598 but most of that
was 50 x lot size to bring it up to £500 to resemble my PLN account
so that doesn’t give a true idea.
If you convert the three mad position sizes to conform to all the other
modest Lot sizes, I have made £96 in eight trading days
My live account is around £1,160.00
so that would have been 8.3% profit in eight trading days
which would average 23% per month at very modest Position
sizes.
How much I might make in reality is a very different thing
but making money recklessly on demo is not duplicable
on live accounts
If I trade with same caution live that I’m trading now it should
be duplicable
My account history below shows the true £96 profit at
low lot size but you see the wild efforts to quickly
add an initial £550. Those three big wins would just
be £15 at same lot size as other trades
I will add here I have closed my other Reversal system,
not because of the big DD, thats part of the system, but
out of sheer boredom that there has only been one win in
three months!
I’m just not interested.
A loser and my life is over!
I refer to a recent post where I got out before that
180 degree Uturn
If you wait until the market moves on lower time frames
you can make some nice gains, and when it really is
moving and inertia is building up, you can trail quite
tightly, minimizing risk.
Often, the market isn’t really moving, price just had
a random spurt for any number of reasons
but if your stop is reasonably tight you shouldn’t
lose too much
I have made a Fantasy account which is actually
less than my typical results eg I win 50%,whereas these
accounts win 33%
but keeping losers small, we make £45 over 30 trades
which might resemble a 20 trading day month.
and interestingly, you can pick any random sequence of ten
consecutive trades and you always end in profit, even
losing 67% of the time!
Modest losers are effectively where you are testing the water.
At least half the time price won’t have sifficient inertia to keep
pulling away from the Stop, and you lose between £1.50 - £3.50
typically
but when the market is actually moving it will pull away from Stop and
you simply trail the Momentum bars for £10, £15, £20 or more
It doesn’t have to happen all the time!
An indicator that tells you the current surge in momentum will be
good for at least 10 - 20 pips would be extremely useful, but no such
indicator exists
it has to be trial and error. but you do come out way ahead
The secret is managing your ‘error’ trades, both financially
and emotionally.
Thats precisely what this post is about.
Every shopkeeper gets this concept
they order in various lines t hat they determine will make a profit.
Why don’t they only order stock that will sell like crazy?
That is actually what they are all trying to do, but they also
have no control over market forces and often get it wrong
so they might test the market first to minimize risk
The many times they lose, if they can’t have a sale
they simply consider it a business e xpense.
Thats all a trading loss should be, a necessary business
expense to test the market
I pay the market £1.50 to give me a signal that it
has momentum and will make me a nice profit.
The market delivers that signal in two ways
It stops me out, a clear signal it is lacking the inertia
I am seeking.
or my trade makes £10 - £20 which is the signal that
the market did have sufficient inertia to keep moving
without need to pull back to my sensibly placed Stop.
This viewpoint of paying the market a very small fee
for a win or lose signal is a very emotionally healthy
approach
Of course you only seek such a signal when you already
believe the market is moving.
Great post @Jerome32!!
I’m going to put a link in my thread to this!!
This is a great little book! Basic stuff we should all embrace. He addresses your small loss experiment even further and says even if you don’t wait for a signal and flip a coin for short/long keeping losses small you probably make money. The idea is to become ruthless with losses I still have a hard time with this and would like to keep my losses smaller. Even seeing better entry points I am still getting in too early and I have heard if you’re in “too early” you’re still wrong! 
If you think about it it’s not about making money it’s about being rewarded for not losing money!!!
Thanks for posting this…
KC
It really is about not losing money unnecessarily
I have read about the coin flip test, its all about money management
For the next two weeks I am taking time off winning trades to deliberately
concentrate on perfecting my losing trades.
when trades have momentum I invariably call it right, in other words
when I get stopped that usually was the end of the move anyway
so I just need cast iron discipline with lot sizing and Stops and
I should really be turning the corner.
Im glad some are benefiting from this, only since transferring system
over to Snipe2020 have things really come together.
Ignore the first two years of this thread
of course that last bit of sage advice won’t help if you are
unfortunate enough to have already read the entire capricious
saga ))
The book recommended is free in audio and $4.99 on Amazon
Let’s begin with what I like about the book:
1.) It’s a really quick easy read. Contains little or no fluff (OK, a little but very little). I read the entire book on a 1.5 hour flight.
2.) The author isn’t a cheerleader/life-coach type of instructor. He actually presents a practical method.
The downside?
1.) The entire book focuses on Forex trading. If you are into common stock / commodities / futures this is not the book for you.
5.0 out of 5 stars Quick easy read.
July 15, 2016
Format: Paperback
Just read this book through kindle unlimited and it was exactly what I needed today. I thought I was alone in my mistakes but he hit everything that I have done on the head and now I know how to bounce back from it and get back on track. Quick easy read.
Appalling market conditions with most pairs refusing to break out of Asian Zone.
Incurred a few losers that might have gone somewhere but lost between
£0.01 - £0.54 on each trade. No regrets on losers, and winners similarly
no big deal
One nice win with similar initial 4 pip Stop
Reviewing (calmly) the situation
The NZDUSD is strongly Bearish on all TFs from
5M to Monthly!
so you cannot really fail, can you
apparently you can
The 5M reversed badly and stopped me out
I’m monitoring the situation but note
the best looking setups don’t always agree
with currency strength Disparity
For CSD I am looking at GBPAUD from news at 9.30
Below is how the landscape changed very quickly
.
.
One important rule I disregarded to my cost
as you can see, when I entered, the MA 6, 20 and 60
were all ABOVE the 300
They are supposed to be below
There could still be a trade here, but I will wait for
the cross of 300
.
EU heading south
but we’re at Weekly Low and we have EU news in 30 mins
and US news in 60 minutes
so I might get stopped
but a nice looking setup with BB bursting to open up
EU reached a major daily support. I’m waiting to see what price does at this level right now. I’m looking for a buy signal. Looking at the DXY chart helps determine the direction as well. EUR does the exact opposite of whatever DXY does
I’ve had a lot of minor losers over the last week, small
positions due to no confidence in whiplashing market.
Still keeping things small, but win or lose some
excellent setups on EU and NJ
and looks like there’s more to come, MACD especially
encouraging and % increase/decrease significant
over yesterday
btw I’m talking about the disparity between EU and DXY
I’m especially waiting for EU to break out of Asian zone to
the downside
