Jerome's Journal

My first ‘disastrous’ month appears to be up 12% already!

I had an opportunity to move down to the H1 on EU and USDCHF
and was able to recoup some of the 5% loss before it happened

except now it looks like it may not happen after all

I’m bewildered

I also found something about the STR indicator that fell
into disuse -

when you get a perfect straight line it means little
and is highly likely to repaint

when you get a perfect straight line when price is
way above/below bands -

Screenshot is a 2.5% win I had on the EU H1 earlier
note the STR

it’s worth paying attention!

I seem to be not a little confused

yes I was 12% up its true, but neglected to mention I went into
massive drawdown last week

so up 12% from my crash but only now up around 3% on September
closing balance

But I have been able to recover from the self sabotage, and
the account is now restored to good order.

all open positions are now at the correct and modest
position size

all trades have no stops and are expected to win

the only reason I recovered from last week’s drawdown is
because I cancelled all stops

but now I have no stops I must have very small position
size or disaster will strike at some point

when all current trades hit TP the account will be up 10.5%
on September, not counting any further trades I might take.

Below is another very good example of STR. when everything
lines up and you have such an STR confluence, price will
invariably cross the bands without mishap

but if STR is particularly weak, it’s best to wait until it
gives a definite indication

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Live account up 7% on September,
which is excellent considering
the worst fiasco I have ever had
on a live account last week

I include a screenshot of the first week of
October accounts, sharp contrast to
Demo accounts August and September
with 30 straight wins replaced by a humbling
50% win rate

the losses don;t look too bad because you can’t see
the massive drawdown on the open positions
that subsequently recovered,

Many positions were hundreds of pips in the red
and would normally have been stopped out, but
I had cancelled all stops.

the next screenshot I post should be 100% winning
trades closed from 9th to 31st October

but at least the screenshot below is good for
credibility - all the while humans are involved
there will be blunders

All open positions are looking good now

  • and long may that continue, but this
    is a good example of confluent STR
    and note how price way overshot original TP
    in favour of trailing stop

this could continue travelling a while longer

once you hit distal band, trailing stop would seem
the logical choice

Keep calm and carry on!!

Great work!

Jerome, have you taken a look at any of @rrram2 's strategies? Might be food for thought.

KC

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will check it out - I’ve already gleaned a lot from BP threads

but back to blunders - the worst being USDPLN

immediately reversed 330 pips and was stopped out

If I had not used a stop I would now be 200 pips in
profit and rising!

GBPCAD 470 pips up and rising with 50 pip trailing stop.

this is an absolute win win situation!

If it continues up forever I wouldn’t mind :slight_smile:

but note the divergence now formed, - we are way above bands
now, so maybe time to collect another 470 pips on the way down?

the basis for a new system - ‘the Elevator system’?

it may at least be a good way of looking at the charts -it
it goes up a long way, it should come down a long way

Learning from the USDPLN fiasco - losing on winning trades,
I don’t want to keep making that mistake

On GBPUSD opened this morning, immediately went against
me - but no stops - so this is an ideal test of the system. just let
it go as high as it likes, eventually it will come down to earth for
a profit

The secret is to really not panic nor be perturbed that trades
take time to mature

given enough room to breath, they eventually return to
the mean, represented by the bands

a wiser self realization was never made, if you are ready to move on upto more successful trading, start relying on the trial and errors of some real trading wizzards? :slight_smile: and ditch the (loss) stops, risk is best controlled with a small lot size, slice your orders up!, where you are getting stopped out…MAKE that your ENTRY

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Yes I completely get that now. I’ve seen the evidence
already this month - thanks for the input, I hope others take note

This has been a most illuminating first month
real live trading

first week of October, 50% losers ( -257 pips )
then, with around 0.2% position size
per trade something of a turnaround!

in four days +1,471 pips, 100% wins!

In some systems, such small Lot sizes might seem
frustrating, but I’m finding plenty of valid setups
and the winnings add up very quickly

Obviously I don’t know what’s round the corner
but 10% profit this month would not surprise me.

that doesn’t sound remarkable to me, I’ve done
much, much more on demo in the past …

but 10% per month with real money is actually
something to celebrate

Some major issues…

placing extremely distant stops and noting the amount
you will lose if it is hit. if it bothers me then my position
size is still too high

when I can look at the amount and just calmly plan to open
another position if its hit…

then I cancel the SL as I know I will cope whatever happens.

Psychologically, its about being in control. even though
you can’t control the market, you can control your emotions

Fantastic @Jerome32 !

Is lot size the only change that you made or is it putting on incremental trades a different price points of .02 lot.

I might be crazy I just didn’t see it in the graphic you posted.

KC

Can’t be sure, it was a hectic week. I did go
in a bit steep to scalp back what I lost on EU,
but I think I’ve confused everyone, I meant
0.2% of equity, not 0.2 lot size

but I have a new plan now based on your suggestion
of incremental add ons

Unfortunately, some of by biggest losers have been
add ons, its never been my strong point, but I think
it will work well with this system

I can’t pretend I’m not getting really excited.
but it’s curious where some of the best ideas come from

  • so often just out of the ether

Small lot sizes is key, then probably Frandlost is
right, knowing when to add on

I’ve figured the time to add on is when price goes
against you AND when it moves in your favour

using simple cross of MACD

I use a hypothetical screenshot example.

first, price diverges far below price. look for an entry
reason and quite honestly, it doesn’t matter what it
is and there is no need for confluence, but it might be

  • our Harmonic grey arrow ( never mind that it repaints )

  • Divergence to oscillator

  • Harmonic indicator ( ZUP or theharmonicindi, both free )

  • Engulfing candle pattern

  • Pinbar reversal pattern

  • Fib retracement level

  • Key Supdem zone

I don’t think it really matters what entry criteria you use,
providing it actually looks like price has moved
unsymmetrically away from bands

in the example below it might have been the simple
pinbar

enter very modestly here, there will be opportunity to add on
what ever happens

for me, maybe as little as 0.01% of equity ( sorry about confusion,
no I didn’t mean Lot size )

now what happens?

price starts to move up and we have a cross of MACD, enter
again with a further 0.1% of equity

now, with a little poetic licence, imagine we didn’t close
near top of bands, and price starts to move against us
quite badly, even hundreds of pips beneath our entry price.

we simple wait for another entry reason, which in this case
is grey harmonic arrow followed by engulfing pattern
we enter again at 0.1% of equity

now as we start to make up for lost ground we note a cross of
MACD, again, another 0.1% of equity

now we have 0.4% at risk which is more than enough
for a system that doesn’t use stops

as we see, price then hits upper distal band and beyond.

again. I like the idea of a 50 pip trail as we approach
the distal band

in this case, with a trail we would have made a good
profit with our 0.2 risk, closing much earlier, and with
no stress whatsoever.

but without the trailing stop, we would have had four positions
and made far more profit - but with considerable drawdown
first

but drawdown doesn’t have to equal stress

without stops, you simply can’t go in with 5% risk.
0.1% risk is far more realistic

this might be the ultimate setup. unfortunately
doesn’t happen that often

meaning, price deviating so far and bands more
or less still level - level bands are by far the
safest setups

enter at grey arrow, then simply stay in until
MACD crosses over, or in this case turns yellow
for an unbelievable 1,200 pips

@rrram2 s system is very similar in terms of entries exits, dd-ons and size. He believes smallest size is key to risk management.

Good luck on more Pips and the continual refinement of your strategy! KC

He is certainly an inspiration, I think his methodology might be a bit
more sophisticated but I think I read he welcomes price going
against him, for the same reason I do, the further away you are
from your target the more pips you make, plus the further the
price has to travel to the bands the greater the inertia

like an avalanche, or snowball effect

you readily see that , the higher the price whipsaws above
the bands, the lower it will proceed to whipsaw below the bands

but now for the MACD add on acid test

on GBDAUD, I’m already short on my first position, and
now waiting for the cross of MACD to enter again

I honestly believe MACD will come up trumps here,
price heading to the bands with a fresh cross of
MACD I believe will be very strong!

I don’t think it should be the first entry as it obviously
lags and you’re missing a lot of pips unneccesarily,
but I think it will be a very safe add on.

I think it’s a big mental shift to go down from 0.3%
lot size to a mere 0.1% but I think the add ons will
quickly add up ( which is probably why they’re called
add ons )

also, small lot sizes open up so many possibilities,
you can trade just about every decent setup. no need
to use filters to narrow the exposure to just one or two.

so you could trade one regular setup at 3% risk with a stop
or you could open 10 - 15 positions with add ons at 0,1%
risk each position and probably make more and with far more
safety

it seems to be working well so far, and assuming I am over the
self sabotage ( and small position size should cover that ), then
this week should be very enlightening and probably the defining
point of this system, and this thread in general.

Everything prospering well, hasn’t always been the case
on a Monday morning

Good example below of adding on at cross of MACD
it by no means happens on every trade, it can
sometimes happen too late to be viable, that’s the
nature of lagging indicators

on Gold I’m waiting for a candle reversal pattern on
the H1, but given the overall downward slope on
the daily, even some temporary spike or blip
shouldn’t prevent it eventually returning to the bands

This is my thought exactly! Sometimes it takes a little longer to go up but going from high to low sometimes it’s like falling off a cliff!

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