Nowhere Land
Again on NZDUSD good short setup bouncing off 20
but Stochastic nowhere near overbought!
so price moved up according. a pattern is emerging here.
Make a note of this!
Strategy Morphing
a trade can fail on strategy 1 but later morph into
a setup on strategy 2
Like NZDUSD above
it was an unqualified strategy 1 but is now a qualified
strategy 2 setup
Just thought Iād pop in to say agreed. And actually works pretty well if you get in with strategy 1 and it turns to a profit and then you switch to strategy 2. Reason being is that it means youāre in the strategy 2 trade at a far better price and if youāre using stops with strategy 2 then it means they can be all that much further away (possibly even at break even).
In an ideal world it would be nice to win on both the roudabouts and swings
(Brit Idiom)
but possibly more often a way to recoup some or all, or more than all, of
losses made on first setup
Possibly strategy 2 can also morph into a strategy 1
The key is to be flexible, and not so blinkered on the original strategy
that weāre blind to a different strategy forming
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Iāve done some pretty nice trades with the idea. And kind of like your description of āmorphingā (Iāve never had the right word to use for it).
Has worked well for when Iāve been trading say my main core system (short term trades) and Iām in profit but then the trade could be morphed into, say, a trend following system. Almost always it means Iāve been in the trend following system at a much better price and even starting out with a profit on the trend following system. ALAS though: I never have the patience to follow the trend trades!!! LOL!!!
How do you know sheās a witch?
āShe looks like one!'
This trade taken as recently as 23/5 is embarrassing
There is no entry signal
No Stochastic confluence
Why did I go short?
It looked like it would go down
Not a good reason to enter a trade!
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āIts close enoughā!
(type of attitude)
Another very sloppy setup on GBPAUD.
Nothing good to say about it.
Stochastic hadnāt crossed
price never went out BB
Engulfing pattern should be completed within two
candles max
this one dribbled on for four candles
too indecisive, as later evidenced by weak angle
of Stochastic
Iām going to guess I was influenced by Baller at the time
and could see the prior Support zone repeating itself
Thats true, but that isnāt my strategy, probably not even
Ballerās, in its entirety.
Listen up.
Obviously I check in here from time to time because I like the way youāre doing things. And Iāve been keenly watching this Hello Moto line (the yellow one) thatās being used for support and resistance. Call me dumb but Iām not seeing the merit in a lot of cases. Or is it just me??? That yellow line is nothing more than the closing prices offset backwards by 26 days. My point is: whatās so special about 26 days??? I mean if anything: why not make it one or the other Fib. no.
I was looking at this thing to try build on a trend following system (more to it than that but thought this thing could identify entry points) but now Iām not so sure. But this part off topic of course.
Pyrrhic Victory!
A good win on GBPJPY but price never went out of BB
It would honestly have been better if I had lost this trade.
Winning on a rubbish setup only encourages poor
trading decisions in the future
Yellow Line can help, especially on Weekly to very quickly spot Key
S/R zones, but different things work for different traders.
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āTreat those two impostors just the sameā
I previously stated on my USDJPY trade that I will
probably never find a better strategy.
I more or less stand by that. Finally a trade
that is currently winning and DID qualify
Even so, it went a bit wrong before it went right
and its hard to accept emotionally that even a near HG
would still produce losing trades.
I was really disappointed on Friday when this much
hallowed trade started to go wrong, and quite elated this
morning when it went into profit
Kipling had the secret to trading all along
āIf you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the sameā
Rubicon!
This Setup is pretty much a defining point for me
incorporating much of the above, I truly believe
it will win, yes, it looks like it will.
but disqualified on a minor technicality
Stochastic was never in the overbought zone, well it
was actually, but never in my predetermined zone
of above 90, not even touching it, which i might
allow
No one wants to pass on a trade that really looks like
it will win, and nor do I
If youāre familiar with the Turtle traders experiment,
some went on to make millions, some blew their accounts,
all with the same strategy
I know for a fact, that not one of those successful Turtles
would have taken this trade, ( if this was the Turtle strategy)
The distinction between the winning and losing Turtles was
that the winning Turtles had the discipline to stick rigidly
to the system rules
The losers played fast and loose, and winged it as fancy took
them. That is my tendency also which is why Iām still trading
cents until I get complete mastery over my emotions
Sadly, that may never happen, but at least I know the score
Studied the Turtles inside, outside, backwards.
If youāre a Turtle fan take a look at āTurtle Soupā and āTurtle Soup Plus Oneā in the book below. May be of interest to you. Might be just the ticket if combined with your SR identification.
Street Smarts - High Probability Short Term Trading Strategies
The setup I see in your charts looks like what Frank Ochoa (aka Pivot Boss) calls an āabsorption signatureā.
not sure which setup you refer to, of course there is nothing original
in either of my two strategies, they couldnāt be more basic
My Strategy #1 is the 1-2-3 trend following pattern, Strategy #2
is a reversal pattern, must close out of BB, re enter engulfing pattern,
confluent Stochastic at least touching 90 or 10 and pointing
in right direction.
back in form so far this month, only one loser which was an
impulse trade inspired by Baller, I went long just because
price hit a support level
and?
no thats it, with no reference to either of my strategies, nor
anyone elseās
Its good when other traders inspire us but their methodology
simply may not work for us if we are not seeing the market
through their eyes
I need to stay focused on what I know works for me
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Three examples of obeying and disregarding system rules
The first is Gold, the equivalent of 50 pips TP which was easily
hit BUT reversed soon after!
Good I obeyed my 50 pip profit rule!
The second is Silver. I went for 85 pips as I was sure it would
hit. I was wrong! I have now closed the trade for 50 pip loss
when it would easily have made +50 pip profit
Greedy pigs get slaughtered!
Third, I called it right on GBPUSD, and this is such a valuable
lesson in the need for discipline. it really does pay off!
I previously wrote I was certain price would go down, but was
controlling myself and passed because Stochastic hadnāt quite
hit 90 so was just disqualified according to my rules
Obeying system rules once again saved me from a loser
as you can see
and the value of keeping a journal, if for no other reason
to be publicly accountable for every time I break a system rule
I canāt believe Iām still doing it!
Congratulations! Great job slow and steadyā¦
Iāve learned this for sure!
Great journal, thanks for posting Jerome!
KC