I actually have used your recommendations and I think I may have finally come close with EMA 9 applied to First Indicator, but DiNapoli, either 6 3 2 or 6 3 3,
looks very different on my broker’s platform.
The most glaring example is where your Dinapoli forms a plateau under 50 but mine clearly breaches 50. That would make a very big difference according to your ‘above/below 50 rule’
Did you mean the 24 consecutive bars as illustrated below? Of course if you
apply TWB’s 50 rule you would still be in after 55 bars and counting
Yes it does… and I can not explain the difference… But pay more attention to the Signal (Red) Line the Main (Blue) Line is really only a steerer for the signal… so to speak…
Another hidden signal to take note of is how the Main spikes away from the Signal… See what happens next? It’s a reversal Signal almost as reliable as the cross over itself… have a look and backtest this…
It will surprise you…
The 50 Rule is used on the RSI, same as the 0 on the CCI, 0 on the DeTrended Price…etc.etc… Its a reference point that adds weight to the Short or Long Sentiment…
yes a big difference
This is true i.e. @Trendswithbenefits would have had you short all the way down.
The system I’m talking about would just have taken small profits on a daily basis is all. The trend following system would definitely have yielded better and cheaper results (not paying spread every day). But in not knowing the system too well: what happens when the trend ends and the chop starts (the system to which I’m referring works in a choppy market).
Put it this way: they both work (or would have worked on this pair). Maybe just a matter of personal preference and what suits you I guess. I know for a fact that trend following is not my strong point i.e. always am I tempted to, and have always done so, take profits way too early. It’s suits who I am far better to be in and out of the markets either intraday or every second or third day type of thing.
Also bear in mind I’m dependent on my trading to put food on the table. This also makes a big difference to how a person trades. I don’t have the luxury of being able to sit on positions for days, months, or weeks on end even if those are the more profitable trades. I know for sure I’d never be able to close out a trend trade, withdraw funds, and then get back in again i.e. I would always fear I was getting in late.
Basically the above two systems demonstrate nice what I was saying to somebody else on another thread just this morning. Your reasons and motivations and personal circumstances play a big part as to how you trade.
And by the ■■■■■■■ way:
LOL!!!
I see GBPCHF has gotten a nice spurt to the upside!!! LOL!!!
TYPICAL!!!
I rest my case. Patience is not a strong point with me!!!
So armed with a university degree in Wilder’s Trend Balance Point System,
and going head to head with a newbie trading cross of EMA 5, what
advantage would you have?
To all intents and purposes they are almost identical, and in a good trend
pretty much are identical
That’s funny!!! LOL!!!
There is no difference other than the fact that I’d have been out just about every day with smallish profits is all. No question that overall the @Trendswithbenefits’ system would have made way more.
Sorry. Hang on. Just saw the EMA question. Lemme look (I cannot see the crossing too clearly).
OK. Nope. I’m not seeing the merit. If somebody showed me that I’d assume going short and long when the EMAs crossed over each other. That’s happened many times already. And if you were stopping and reversing based on those crossovers you’d be dead by now is my guess. I’ve never been a fan of MA crossover to begin with. And they can be very deceiving. Always great on paper. And always great in a trend. But they will kill you in a range bound market.
Anyway: the above being said and IF ANYTHING the periods need some attention and looking into.
The point I was really trying make is that Wilder is really hard going,
written before we had MT4 and easy indies which do exactly the
same thing
On the other hand, one forex guru did make a good point ie
that even the most dazzling, all singing, all dancing indicator
is nothing more than a mathematical equation
I never view them that way
but Wilder’s book does open your eyes and remind you where
all our indicators are derived from
What can I tell you. It makes me feel like I am actually doing work!!! LOL!!!
Don’t get TOO confident though. Bear in mind: the way that pair has moved has been ideal for any trend following system.
That was precisely what clinched it for me.
I entered a USDCHF trade on this thread on the D1. I closed
it out of sheer boredom. it would have taken four months
to hit the modest TP.
Just not for me
You know what the problem becomes though:
Getting out of a trend too early is one thing. But those long term trend trades would have you building a really nice buffer so that when you DO eventually end up in a range bound market and are getting chopped up then you at least come out on top overall type of thing. But you cannot have the best of both worlds UNLESS you’re good enough to be able to determine whether you should be trend trading or not. EVEN WITH my Wilder degree: I’ve not found anything that tells you whether you should be trend trading or not. Usually the trend is over by the time you’re being told it’s started.
Going to reply in here because I’m sure others will be interested…
I coded up a quick EA with the built in MT5 stochastic oscillator using TWB’s method described in this thread and was quite surprised by the results in a backtest since the start of 2017. This is trading 0.1 lots on the weekly time frame with no stop loss, trade is opened and closed only by the oscillator. It is across all 28 pairs of the major currencies simultaneously. Results shown below
Wow.
That’s a nice smooth curve.
Yep, it’s pretty impressive.
Is there any way to forward test this on a demo MT5 account whilst still having my live account open?
Not a question I can answer I’m afraid. Never tried to run two instances of MT4 or MT5 at the same time connected to the same broker or account on the same PC at the same time (if that’s what you mean). Sure there’s a MT expert here. Otherwise just try it. If it works just make sure one instance is logged into your live account and the other logged into a demo.
Managed to get it, had to install a second copy in a different location and then I can open 2 instances. I’ll set it running and start a journal once it starts making trades. I assume placing the trades first thing on market open on Monday is the best way?
Should be able to open a demo account with your broker. If not I’m sure there are others running mt5 you could demo it with.
KC
Clever.
Dunno. Suppose from a nice and tidy starting point yes. Other than that cannot think of a reason why it would make a difference when it started.
How could others not be interested!
but in using TWB method, what exactly is your EA’s criteria for
entry and exit?
Entry is a DiNapoli 6 3 2 cross over what? EMA 9?
and Exit at DiNapoli cross of 50?
Is it really as simple as that?
and that is without regard for CSW
