I have also just opened a second position on
GBPJPY after the OVA trade was hit for 50 pips
This second BT ( break of trendline ) set up is
the first trade to target more than 50 pips. I have
targeted ML ( median line ) which happens to be
75 pips.
I am not seeking more than 50 pips, thats just
where the ML happens to be
Nothing much happening today
so a good opportunity to put the 80% rule
to the test
If price enters value box for two 30 min intervals
( no need to wait for close of second interval)
there is an 80% chance of it hitting the other
side of the value box
Iām not buying it at the moment, but what a dream!
you would find set ups continuously with an 80%
win ratio!
Win or lose this is experimental/fun and wonāt
be included on results page
Perhaps, you can incorporate a daily average range consideration to your 80/20 rule. When daily high/low exceed daily average range. Time to counter trend as well?
Hi Alpha
Thanks for the input. sorry to have confused you
but I donāt think this particular strategy is the 80/20 rule
as such
Just when its been in the box for two consecutive 30 min
intervals it will hit the top of the box
As you can see from the screenshot it does, except the
top of the box isnāt where it was - talk about āmoving the
goal posts!ā (British soccer idiom)
In other words, it doesnāt actually hit the top of the box,
that is not the same thing unfortunately 
80 Percent Rule Strategy.pdf (331.2 KB)
but I think it has merit, Iāll upload the PDF, as you and
others might find it interesting - and profitable. For me
it was just a fun trade, but I will try a few more in the quiet
moments
In this case, the answer is obvious, forget about the
top of box, just target just below the consolidation,
which is where the box ended up anyway.
You can probably figure out where the box will move too,
especially if youāre in front of the screen which I wasnāt today.
In fact, as you see the box move, just use it as a trailing TP
in reverse, if that makes sense, presumably the box could
move the other way too for more pips.
On my Divergence system two more winners today:-
50 pips USDJPY and 76 pips GBPJPY
Thatās now 17/18 winners and itās getting stressful.
Losing is far less stressful.
that awful feeling that you are about to snatch
defeat from the jaws of victory
that feeling that you know it canāt last
My results page exactly resembles the webpage
of the guy Iām modelling
and Iām getting almost identical results
Iām not making any money but the thought that
I could be.
Iām trying to stay as calm as possible and only
trade the very best set ups
Mastering the emotions is make or break
No Divergences so far today on H4 or D1 - its a relief
actually.
but one more winner from 20/9, EURUSD went 147 pips
awry, then returned for 50 pip win.
thatās 18/19 winners and set ups are running at
approximately 40 per month.
That may well vary.
but this 300 pip SL business?
Big E would get out first sign of trouble as he felt he could
always re enter
Great plan! however I wouldnāt want to miss out hereā¦
If Iām stopped at 50 pips thatās not even going to barely
notice on my account.
But while Iām watching and waiting for a re entry, it may
go over the 300 pip mark where I would previously
have been stopped
So I can still wait for a ārescue tradeā even though I
donāt need to be rescued
The rescue trades virtually never lose, I donāt want
to waste them!
Of course I would likely have seen the next set up and
traded it in the normal way but there is no reason
not to go in at x 10
There is a very small risk of losing 2%
I have only traded one rescue trade so far.
I lost 300 and then made 550 netting approx 250.
but with 50 pip SL I would only have lost 50 then
made 550 netting 500!
I could re enter six times if necessary with a 50 pip
SL and I would only lose a total of 300 pips
but I doubt I would ever need to re enter more than once,
maybe twice on the rare occasion.
Another āMagic Box systemā set up today
EURGBP. there were three candles re entered
Iām targeting under the actual top of box
Meridian line so I donāt really care if the
box shrinks or not
Jerome, if you were working for us, we would tell you to take a break, 2-3 days, and just watch, you are winding yourself up into a ball of raw nerves.
The Ever Assisting VIPER
Good advice Viper. Mercifully, divergence has all but disappeared.
thanks
One thing I can Guarantee you, 100%, that on Friday the Spot Currency market will still be here waiting for you with open arms.
The Ever Trader Whisperer VIPER
Finally, we have a Divergence!
but the break was welcome
The USDCAD H4 meets all the original criteria
of the system, but it doesnāt meet my extra rule
of 'must be at extreme top or bottom of Autofib
zone.
The advantage of this may be purely psychological
I could keep all my non fib trades on a separate
account to avoid outraging the entire Forex community,
but as I donāt care what they think Iāll include them
on my regular Results page.
However, if it becomes apparent that non fib trades
underperform the trades that meet the Fib filter
I will simply delete all non fib trades from my
records, winners and losers.
I actually have no reason to believe that Fibs make
any difference, any more than Stochastics.
I have every reason to believe that Divergence makes
a differenceā¦
as I write, another idea springs to mind -
I have never tested trades with Divergence but omitting
the missed weekly pivot rule
The thinking is that price ALWAYS hits the weekly pivot
eventually so ālogicallyā price must be drawn toward
the missed weekly pivot
Actually no that isnāt very logical at all
All levels will eventually be hit so that would include the
level where the missed weekly pivot is, whether its there
or not.
In other words, if I extend the horizontal lines of the previous
weekly levels that were hit and treat those lines as though
they had been missed and are ripe for hitting
Is price smart enough to know itās already hit those levels?
This is crazy, as is the rationale behind most indicators.
I literally currently include the missed indicator rule
because the system has performed so well over
many years, but actually I have hesitated to exclude
the rule more to superstition than anything.
I am not a superstitious person
So I will test it out
Some trades on my results page will indicate āNFā (Non Fib)
and others will indicate āNMWPā ( No Missed Weekly Pivot )
Again, if I detect a definite bias one way or the other I may
amend the Results page.
Filters are great if they actually help to eliminate or reduce
losing trades, but no need to include them ājust for luckā
I donāt want or need luck
Also, my main position is targeting 50 pips - this is usually hit,
plus small 20% of that Lot size will target the Median Line
in the MP value area and a third position will be 10% targeting
the second Median Line from the previous dayās value area.
Minimizing risk, as soon as 50 pip TP is hit I will bring the
second and third positions up to Break even. There should
be a chance that one or the other may be hit.
This will increase risk from 0.2% to 0.26% initially but in at least 70%
of trades the risk will return to 0.2 as soon as TP 1 is hit
USDCAD TP1 hit for 50 pips
Doing the math, my trade management must risk
up to 2% but thanks to the generous bonus of my
broker that is only 1% of my own money
so whereas the risk is manageable, it means my
usual wins are very, very modest, with a few
rescue wins a bit better.
This means I need quite a big volume of winning
trades which I think I have.
If I can make $100 in a week which is very doable
that can grow exponentially into $1,000
I donāt know how long that might take and I donāt
think it would be helpful to try to calculate.
I donāt need motivation at the moment, just
stay consistent and calm.
All I have to do is keep on exactly what I have
been doing since 11th of this month.
It shouldnāt be hard.
I need to avoid innovation - the strategy is working
fine as it is
Iāll keep an eye on variations but I need to really stay
focused now.
Back to USDCAD and all the extra positions -
Just a little reminder to keep it real
Targeting all past Median lines is great if they
are going to be hit, but as we see here there
is something of a channel and no reason to
suspect that price is going out of itās way
to hit as many past value areas as possible just
to make my strategy look good.
An extra position at 20% of first position may be
an option if TP is both worth having and viable.
In the case below I ditched the Median Lines
and just kept one extra position moved to above
lower trendline -
at the moment price seems more inclined to
resume trend upward for Break Even.
So it was a free trade and who knows, I might
even have a last minute reprieve - although I
think I need to move TP up to that little
area of consolidation, not likely it will break
down past that. Possible but not likely.
I think I have clarity of vision here, no
crystal ball but clarity -
Price is quite likely to continue up to
Stop me for Break Even, otherwise
it is quite possible it will return down
to that recent area of consolidation
which was certainly acting as Support,
it didnāt seem to want to push below that.
So if it hits my TP that will be another
50 pips with reduced Lot size.
But its a great end to the week
Still a couple of positions open on GBPAUD
and EURGBP - and all profits now locked in
and stops moved to BE
USDCAD = 50 PIPS
GBPAUD = 50 pips and 94 pips
EURGBP = a few pips over Break Even
21 Wnners 1 Loser 1 BE
New Broker next week - Hot Forex
better spreads plus hopefully better execution
Looking at that last screenshot, it would suggest first
position at 50 pips as standard, and second position
have in mind BOTH Median Line of the recent value
area AND the channel trendline. Price should likely hit
one or the other for a second position.
A third position may sometimes come off but it will
complicate the records, for example, if the main
position loses that carries with it the second and third
positions. I wouldnāt want to have to record three losses
as that isnāt good for morale.
But a second position with a well chosen TP as above
should win most of the time. In the above case it
was stopped for BE - which will be a common scenario
and I wouldnāt record that as a loss simply because
I didnāt lose anything. and I wouldnāt record it as a win
because I didnāt win anything.
So to record trades both honestly and positively
I wonāt dwell on any negatives - example-
EU ā¦ Winner 50 pips ā¦ 45.00ā¦45.00
GU ā¦ Be x 3
UJ ā¦ L x 2 ā¦ -360.00 ā¦+560.00ā¦200.00
When I was very young starting out in a Selling career,
my first job was to sell electric showers
I was very nervous. My first prospects were a very nice
young couple.
They asked me if the price was competitive?
I told them I didnāt know ( how naive is that!)
but I got the deal.
I wondered if selling could really be that easy.
It wasnāt!
I never sold another shower after that.
I went on to sell a variety of products and services
over the years, and I always had a good guide -
Selling to one prospect could just be luck, selling to two
customers was not a coincidence - it told me that
selling that particular product was definitely doable.
And true enough, in all the products I sold over the years
if I could sell two I always went on to have good success
with that product over the years.
I flopped selling funeral plans, and also some energy saving
device which I never really understood, but all other products
after my first two sales it just got better and better.
Relating that to Trading results, I would say my results since
11th of this month have been exceptional but it could be
some kind of beginnerās luck so to speak.
I will be looking very carefully at my first full monthās results.
I would assume there will be losers by then, and of course
we wonāt know the outcome of their rescue trades, but I
think one month of a system with almost daily trades
is enough to give a very good idea of whether it is likely
to be profitable in the long term.
Its obviously not a guarantee of anything but a good
indication, especially if winning rate remains high
