Jerome's Journal

[Jerome32]

A Great Day!

but very hard work!

I’ve got this rather niggling feeling that I’m actually working
for money, hopefully it will not always be toil

I’ve added Donchian channels and Fractal Box, which
is from the AIMS community, or you can buy it for £3

Its just a better way of viewing Fractals. and like Donchian,
they help you to see what is going on, break of Box or Donchian
with Momentum can be very significant, as it was today

The best setup is a cross and return over LMA 60, but sometimes,
often, price is responding to 20 in a fast moving market

which is OK to treat 20 as 60 but know that at some point it will
return to 60

I was hoping to hit $200 by month 2. My accounting runs from 12th to 11th.
so I made it in 4 days, not bad providing I don’t devote the rest of the month
to giving it all back

I shouldn’t be getting too smug here, I’ve done this enough times, and a really
good day like today can so often be a kiss of death.

'proof of infallibility!

I don’t think so!

[Jerome32]

My Reversal System by comparison has made $455 in three months.
It is actually very good and not stressful.

but last winner was 19th December, almost a month ago. Patience
is one thing but its like watching paint dry.

If I could be sure it would work on H1 I would be happier, but so often you
see conflicting setups on HTF

and that really worries me. The jury is still out on this one

[Jerome32]

NZDJPY is the standout pair this morning

There would have been a good breakout opportunity
at 9.15 LO after retest of breakout level and then break
of Fractal AIMS box

if you saw it . of course FinWiz wouldn’t have highlighted
SW at that time, only after the breakout.

at this time its a level playing field

Breakouts are much better seen in hindsight

which isn’t helpful

[Jerome32]

Three great wins so far this morning

and now we’ve broken through Weekly Resistance I’m
waiting for the PB to re enter

[Jerome32]

almost $50 made to day. $20 at LO and $30 during
four hours of Asian Session.

Not sure about Asian Session, nor Friday trading

Last Friday I did well to escape with BE

so maybe Snipe knows what he’s doing

I’ll monitor both these time periods

As we see, the system is far from blip free

There are losers

[Jerome32]

FRIDAYS Monitoring

Already I don’t see a problem

10/1 BE
17/1 $104

This morning at LO I had a great win trading UK News,
and followed through in much the usual way albeit
switching to another pair, but GBP was dropping like
lead

As regards trading on into afternoon and evenings on Friday,
I think caution, it probably isn’t a good idea

As regards Asian session, you need to watch spreads, even my
broker, typically 0.5 pips spread rose to 16 pips during the night
and I was up for four hours during the night until 4am, profitably,
then up for 10.am (9am GMT) for LO.

Some might say burning the candle at both ends. I’m not sure
I mind that if its consistently profitable.

but wortgh noting…

I’ve taken 38 trades over the last five days!

To make the money you have to get stuck in, there’s a
lot of cut and thrust, and it isn’t for the feint hearted,
and you absolutely do need to know what you’re doing!

I don’t see myself as any kind of trading wizard but results
are certainly indicating progress. I remember when I would
almost never win on M5 and M1

Since Dcember 12th I’ve made $330 but of more interest is that
$190 of that two month total I made over the last five days!

I’m averaging quite a lot, in other words if the first retracement fails
I cash in on the second, invariably cross back from LMA 60.

[Jerome32]

Just testing to prove my suspicion that Friday
afternoons are a very sideways market

[Jerome32]

Surprisingly, I got two nice wins, but then gave 50% back
so, overall it was as sideways as I thought.

You need Volatility and movement

a glance at this sampling tells me the markets are moving
less than 3 pips over the last 30 minutes

[Jerome32]

Some serious manipulation this morning on AUDJPY
it should have been very straightforward

it wasn’t

I thought I would recoup on GBPAUD. Same thing again

However, after US bank holiday yesterday, and positive UK news
and increasing currency strength dispaity, I see a clearer picture
on H1

I see GBPAUD moving up

Hopefully I will recoup some pretty bad losses

I really need to learn something from this

[Jerome32]

I seem to be doing well, but relying too much on averaging.

Its fine until things really go against you. its basically gambling.

Ive made $500 in six weeks, account started 12/12/19 with $3,509
now 4,009

up 14% in six weeks may seem very safe and cautious compared
to Snipe but I can assure you it isn’t. I take some incredibly
reckless chances in order to recoup

so far they always pay off, but it won’t always

[Jerome32]

I have switched from a $ to £ Broker account, and for
consistency I quickly won £500 to make the balance
similar to the last account

I wish it were that easy in real life!

But something of real interest is evident

It looks like price might bounce down from 60

but then take a look at where we a re on HTF!

So we need a break of that H4 level and a retest, then if it bounces
off 20 or 60 convincingly enough open a small position

but there is danger here, and the longer we linger, the more likelihood
that we are going sideways or reversing

That said SW is +27% against -82%
and the real secret above all, is how do I feel? Ive
already won £500, do I want to risk giving
it back?

do I feel I need to keep trading beyond

do I have the strength to close down past LO?

Price has now been at this H4 level of support
for 37 bars!

It may continue to move down but I will need a
lot of convincing!

If we get a cross of 20 over 60 to the upside price
may likely reverse a lot

but if there is one golden rule, its stick to the
rules. MAs and trend oscillator are still very Bearish

Going Long is violating every system rule!

This is how you blow accounts!!!

[Jerome32]

Experience makes the child grow wise

I’ve just seen something I’ve never seen before

Its more than just noting the horizontal line of prior S/R

when price returns reaches that level it often forms
a consolidating zone

You can’t know which way it will go from there

This is one of the most dangerous traps in Forex

Having the patience to wait for price to push right
through the zone, and retest back to 20 or 60
before decisively moving down

Only then enter

not being frightened about how much money my delay
is costing me

Its not delaying thats going to cost you big time

its all about avoiding impulsiveness, keeping your
water dry ( one typo Ive got to leave )

[Jerome32]

I’m on a roll here

no, not the 15 consecutive wins I had today, because
you can give that all back and much more!

but I’ve had such an eye opener

not so much about TA

I know quite a lot about S/R zones, and waiting for
the Retest

nothing new there

but I’ve learnt something invaluable about myself

I don’t wait for the bigger picture to form

I see what looks like a reversal and jump straight
in on impulse, ignoring all the rules

of course it can pay off, but this is literally how accounts
are blown

This is very likely my last major obstacle to overcome

to even occasionally giving in to impulsiveness will
guarantee disaster

total self discipline and a smooth equity curve
isn’t the best way

its the only way!

I know in my heart, that up until this point in time
I would be opening an irresponsibly big reversal
position on impulse, as in sc below

I would see the break of Support zone to
the upside and go straight in

but you have to wait for Reversal to be proven,
for the 300 to change colour and direction, and for
60 to be established in a new trend

I absolutely must get this drilled down

I can trade. 20 consecutive wins, even on M5 is
not hard anymore

but I can only go so far before the psychology
sabotages everything with a wave of impulsiveness

[frandlost]

not being frightened about how much money my delay

is costing me

This is a great observation and can be challenging to fully embrace. It is a trap I can step into easily!! I’m in it right now actually!!

KC

KC

[Jerome32]

@frandlost

This is a great observation and can be challenging to fully embrace

Actually, the situation may be even worse than that.

It should be a matter of ‘once saved always saved’ but
I fear it isn’t. a challenge indeed as you say.

The tendency is to recognize the problem, vow to walk
on the straight and narrow from this day forth, and then
immediately jump in on a half formed set up on impulse.

Discipline isn’t something we can merely give lip service to.

I remember one mentor, a Russian girl would you believe, with a
few very simple systems. trading news etc

From a poor background, she is able to tour the world, on the
back of her Forex winnings. Her systems are largely irrelevant.

They wouldn’t help you or me.

One guy on her forum, absolutely in awe of her, asked ,‘How
does she do it!’

Another guy gave the very telling, definitive answer

‘She’s a machine!’

More and more, I’m coming to see that all successful traders
are machines.

and it may be that a mere 5% of emotion creeping in, will cause
95% of your devastation.

It always seems like running up the cliff scree, you do well initially
but at some point you always lose your footing and come tumbling
down to the bottom again.

What I’m now doing, is focusing on why the chart is NOT a valid
setup, so that becomes the default view.

Only when a Setup is overqualified, so to speak, will I enter.

That at least is the plan

Below is an example. today NZDCHF is the most disparate pair.
but that means little in itself.

I see we are at a significant H4 level

consolidation or reversal more likely at this level.

we need to get past this first

[frandlost]

I can’t seem to load a Link using my phone. But if you use the search tool above and type in the word “befuddled” I believe the first thread to come up will be by trendswithbenefits

Definitely worth a read!

I’m walking the same emotional road as You Are! It’s far more challenging than I ever expected.

KC

[Jerome32]

Here it is if anyone’s interested. You certainly can’t trade if you are befuddled

Newbies.... Stop being befuddled by charts

It absolutely baffles me why most traders are still relying on charts and price action to goading them into trading the wrong direction… when a Simple 20 Moving Average Slope (Colored) takes all the confusion out of a mass of candles… Using the AUDUSD (1 Hour, UTC +10) pair as an example, which has been tumultuous over the last 4 - 5 days due to Political uncertainty, I have laid a Candlestick Chart and a SMA 20 next to each other to show the utter confusion that Candle Charts cause. Does it r…

back to the example above, we are now past that support level

and I arrow what we are looking for. we have some WOS.
If it doesn’t happen we don’;t trade

[Jerome32]

The temptation, is on seeing the break of Fractal, to jump in

but we need the retrace and a clear signal that price is
rejoining the trend, with momentum

[Jerome32]

Saved from a Loss!

By impulsively jumping in, you can expect this
kind of thing to happen

[Jerome32]

Win or lose I’m on far nore solid ground waiting to
pass S/R, wait for retrace, wait for clear return
to trend signal