A similar set up on eurcad daily but without confluence
of Harmonicindi.
This is very premature on euraud
We have everything except the main thing,
the cross of thick navy over outer bands.
but it has started to curl in
but repainting does happen, even on daily
so probably best to wait for confirmation.
If this goes against me this will be a good reminder
not to go in so early
So far everything is very predictable
I have added ZUP Harmonic indicator and that
shows a pattern on EURCAD, so now we have a pattern
on all three
I have also added a Divergence indicator at bottom of
Window with no lines on chart.
So Gold and EURCAD meet all set up requirements
and both are in good profit ( so far)
On the other hand, EURAUD is a nearly set up
but the TDI navy which was starting to curl up has
now straightened up pointing down again.
The first two also have Divergence whereas EURAUD
does not
and sure enough EURAUD is the only one of the
three that is losing- and I could add it is the only
one where the Synergy HA candles havenāt changed
colour - this is a seriously premature set up!
So lesson for day 1 is wait for a confirmed set up.
I know that should be obvious, but it helps to
really lose big time ( albeit on Demo ) to really
drive that critical point home!
This will take a lot of monitoring but I want to
find what is really essential and what isnāt.
The TDI crossing through the outer band
is absolutely non negotionableā¦
The Star and Arrow Entry confirmation is
incredibly accurate ( FPA 5 star rated system
and guys are making money with it on 1 minute
Binary Options!)
So not surprisingly it is spectacular on Daily TF.
I donāt like trading a set up without a Harmonic pattern
but that might be partly psychological as the pretty
colours tend to give illogical confidence
but then, thereās nothing wrong with confidence.
I was previously trading Divergence very successfully
so, again that is a great filter to narrow down the
number of trades and increase chances of success.
That only really leaves the BO Confirmation Window.
I know itās good, again FPA 5 Star rating, but I need
to find the best way to use it
This is interesting - a new week
The essence of this system is very simple and
possibly very naive-
If you backtest the star and arrow entry signals
you see price swings up and down until an
opposing signal is formed.
Now assuming repainting didnāt exist I would
have made multi millions by now.
Because this is so central to the system I am
sticking to Daily TF to minimize any repainting.
On this TF and above I donāt think it does
really repaint in the true sense of the word -
like when price continues and forms a swing
high or low several bars after the entry signal
appears and the signal suddenly teleports
several bars to make the system appear
profitable.
The star and arrow, especially the arrow confirmation
only appears when it is very sure of an imminent
reversal
that said, the current candle can certainly push the
signal further up or down as in the case of the
above ānearly set upā on euraud. However, the signal
didnāt migrate to the next bar and that is critical
to the system.
Ideally I would like to enter on a seriously confirmed
set up and exit only when an opposing star appears,
- I could wait for a star and arrow to appear but that
could take weeks - The star itself invariably signals
a reversal.
However this is probably where the naivity comes in -
the idea of entering at buy signal and close at sell
signal doesnāt actually work in real time - only in hindsight
nevertheless I want to test it to destruction, because frankly
unless the entry signal does teleport to a new location
the system should be gold dust.
so I want to see exactly why it doesnāt happen that way,
what goes wrong? It can only be a repainting issue, as
once an entry signal is āsetā the price always reverses to the
next opposing signal.
Ok, I see one flaw - the opposing signal might appear early on,
for say 30 pips profit, only to be pushed a further 70 pips for,
in hindsight, 100 pips profit. but I would close at 30 pips in case
it didnāt extend
I would have no way of knowing.
Apart from that it should at least be profitable.
Curiously Gold, the perfect set up has moved back to around
zero whereas eurcad is doing much better.
I have also opened a position on eurnok, a good set up except
no divergence.
What I have done now on all three open trades, is open
two positions with one TP at the nearest obvious S/R level,
whilst letting the second position run to the next opposing
star signal when it appears.
In time, it should become obvious if one is more reliable
than the other, or if a larger position should be targetted
to a more realistic level and a smaller lot size allowed
to run on.
I retired the euraud as it went 75 pips with still no
reversal. I wonāt take another premature entry,
nevertheless it still has good potential if I wait
until it is fully confirmed
Two very nice wins nzdjpy made 50 pips first day, eurcad made 65pips
over 12 days.
Major breakthrough - when waiting 12 days to hit TP its not great
psychology to keep checking the charts every 10 mins
so I have price alerts that let me know when TP is hit or when nearing
stop, although I donāt actually place a stop, I just retire the trade
when Iām alerted.
The strategy is very selective, I wonāt trade without Divergence and
missed weekly pivots, plus completed Harmonic Pattern. TDI and STR
confirmation have to be in place
There may only be one or two trades a week, but well worth waiting for,
- they usually are hit
Nice colourful screenshot to start the week.
I saw nothing on the Dailies as I donāt check all the exotics
because I canāt get price alerts sent to my phone for them.
but a very nice set up on H4.
Everything is in place, Yelloe DB Arrow Alert, two harmonic
patterns confluent, recent divergence which was followed
by eleven consecutive bullish candles ignoring four BRNs
but now we see a bearish engulfing pattern at the 1.32000
BRN sweetspot. Some kind of retrace or reverse is
overdue.
In the confirmation window TDI has crossed down
over blue and STR is below navy and showing a nice
smooth descent.
We have recent missed weekly pivot around 70 pips
away and midpoint to that is a BRN at just 35 pips
which is my target.
It will either be hit or not retrace at all.
The Daily is also showing most reversal signals,
so if the H4 continues up without let up
we just wait for the next reversal setup.
It canāt just just ascend vertically permanently and never
printing another red candle. This is such a great system,
- if you miss the current setup you havenāt lost, you just
wait for the next one to recoup any losses and make a
bit of profit too.
Apart from the yellow DB confirmation arrow
and two other harmonic patterns formed,
I have roughly drawn black arrows to indicate:-
Divergence
Missed Weekly pivot
Bearish engulfing pattern
STR confirmation
TDI confirmation
Stochastics not displayed, have been overbought for
a while but have now crossed and also crossed
through 80
Target should be hit by wednesday or thursday but if
really doesnāt go our way, I look forward to it forming
the next bearish set up.
Curiously, Iām nowhere near hitting my paltry 35pip target
on usdcad above on H4 but Iāve just made 87 pips on
M15 TF euraud
Its still a bit experimental and repainting is still the
very big issue
The set up is identical as above but something I noticed:-
The DB arrows are printed 50 to 250 pips distance
from each other before a reversal on M15
In the set up below I entered after all the signals
were in place and more or less went the distance from
arrow to arrow.
My cunning scheme is this - if a fully qualifying set up
appears over 200 pips away from last DB arrow,
repainting or not, a reversal should be imminent as
below
backtesting its an absolute dream (isnāt it always) but
this strategy is going on the premise that price is
fluctuating all the time and will only go so far before
a reversal.
Worst case scenario? price will ignore arrow
and arrow will repaint hopefully no more than 50
pips away, and that should be where DB arrow comes
to rest. Price then reverses but the opposing DB
arrow appears 50 pips later
In other words it should have been 50 pips profit
but you break even due to repainting.
1 Like
It is a great habit to have a trading journal as it helps you to kniw about your strengths and weaknesses. I would like to advise all the newbies to improve your writing habits as they play a good role in the success of a trader. Am I right traders?
You couldnāt be more right Juzahe!
Without a journal you forget even the
most critically important breakthroughs!
Which is unbelievable but true.
I won two trades today 62 pips and 70 pips.
I use EMA 5 as a sort of contextual guide.
Mainly, I start checking Majors and Crosses
on Daily only - looking at the Indicator window
only for VERY clear sign of upward or downward
direction.
I have various reversal indicators, but to avoid
clutter they each have their own template. When
the bottom window shows a strong signal, all
the upper indicators are quite reliable, even the
ones that repaint.
There is no need to have confluence, possibly
no need for any of them, but its good to have
the extra agreement.
I enter as price hits EMA 5.
No need to wait for close, as you can lose most
or all your profit as I set very modest TPs.
Usually the nearest BRN at around 60 pips on
the Daily.
If you have a very decisive confluence between
TDI and STR in bottom window the TP will be
hit if you donāt get greedy
When would I get out of a trade prematurely?
Thanks to Big E for the best trading advice -
if TDI starts to flatten out I exit before things
turn nasty. Usually they donāt but I would
rather break even or take a small loss
occasionally then take unnecessary risks.
that was Big Eās policy and it makes a lot of
sense. if you win most of the time you donāt
need to gamble or greedily hang on for
an extra 300 pips.
Yes that is very often available and would
be nice, but this is a very safe strategy - a
little and often.
As Juzahe reminds us - I need to catch up before
I start forgetting critical insights
Although this thread has been a bit of a merry go round
with no shortage of garish indies coming and going, actually
there has also been consistency
Starting with Engulfing patterns - they still feature prominently.
Divergence likewise is still very powerful.
Big E and his TDI strategy is still very central to what Iām
doing and Iām extremely grateful to him.
The only permanent addition to that is the STR confirmation
which is one of the most powerful indicators Iāve ever trialed
- and Iāve trialed a lot!
Basically the screenshot in my last post is almost as good
as it is likely to get
Its knowing how to use STR and TDI in combination.
This is truly a work in progress.
I have been working intensively over the last week,
with many sleepless nights.
The insights just come to mind, usually when you are
not trading and relaxing.
So this is the story so far - There are possibly three
variations to the system.
So letās look at System 1, the basic ingredients -
- Divergence
- Sunflower Black Arrow alert
- Engulfing Pattern -out and in of outer BB.
- Stochastic Cross arrow.
- Long Steep incline of STR
- TDI crossing blue or yellow decisively ( weak in
this example. ideally TDI should be parallel angle to
STR )
So what happened to this trade? a very nice win, despite
ignoring Big Eās caution that when TDI flips over, things
are likely to turn nasty. In this case TDI decided to tow
the party line and follow up in parallel to STR.
I counted on it doing this because STR was very
compelling, along with all the other confluences, and also
TDI was moving up well until the flip.
So how do you read the flip? Big E would get out quick
with a view to getting in promptly on reverse flip.
Thatās one approach but I think there could be a lot of
waste along with the extra spread cost etc, nevertheless
this is probably my major bugbear. Maybe it will just
get easier to read with experience, down to intuition so
to speak.
As we see in the next screenshot, TDI flipped back up
over yellow for a nice win
So letās look at System 2 - and this is powerful, I could
do worse than just focus on this!
Very simple! Four wins from four set ups. One very long
Bullish move which should have all been in one highlight
box, but you get the gist of it.
The focus is on TDI crossing yellow decisively, at a good
angle as stipulated by Big E - but inviolably this must be
supported by a smooth and convincing STR, although
in this case it can be relatively shorter than the previous
system, but it must be smooth with no kinks in it
whatsover. Exactly as we see in the screenshot.
Again, what is a kink or a flip is discussed extensively
on Big Eās thread, but if you notice the third set up,
you might argue that the STR wasnāt as smooth as the
other three examples. But my view is that it isnāt a kink
or a flip - so by way of analogy -
Imagine on a highway, someone in front of you gradually
veers into another lane - not best practice but you are
all still moving in the same direction and invariably you
all arrive at your destination without mishap.
By contrast, imagine someone in front of you skids and
suddenly is positioned at right angles to the flow of traffic.
or imagine if someone skids and makes a sudden
180 degree turn and is now driving into oncoming traffic!
The first example in the motoring analogy is not likely to be
a game changer, but the second and third examples are
more likely to be āgame overā!
The STR in the third set up neither flatlines or flips, but veers
a little, but still stays more or less on course.
In this system the Bollinger Bands are not relevant, any
confluence is coincidental.
This is a very powerful system - and simple, and very
mechanical - its either a set up or it isnāt.
Another very powerful variation, is wait for either TDI or STR
to cross blue ( which is very unusual to have a system where
the signal line of one indicator crosses the level of a different
indicator, nevertheless it works! - in fact it works so well you
can even use it on the H1 for Binary Options for a 90% return
on HighLow broker. A lesser return isnāt worth bothering about )
But the main thing, whichever one crosses blue, they must run
completely parallel, even merging as one line, and it must be supported
by Sunflower Black Arrow. I give a few examples, no cherry picking, so far
I canāt find any set ups that would have lost, not in hindsight. In real time
however things are not always quite so crystal clear, but still this is dynamite.
The confluence of these two indicators is a force to be
reckoned with.
My GU trade has moved up briskly but Iāve moved myTP to break even
because Iāve got a lucky feeling about it, and I donāt want to be rewarded
for acting on lucky feelings.
Iāve got two more samples of perfect crosses. Encouragingly. all
crosses in the screenshot made a profit, but the two Iāve arrowed
are what I should ideally be looking for.
Unlike shifted STR, TDI isnāt time shifted so you donāt know what
will happen to it after the cross.
Best guess is what itās doing before the cross
So I want to see the two moving steeply and very closely
together before the cross to increase the likelihood of
this continuing after the cross.
and I want to see STR printing a very smooth and
straight course all the way to the next level, be that
yellow or blue.
I donāt know how scientific this is, but it would seem
to be the most optimized approach I can think of.
My GU trade is moving up well now, up 25 pips.
But I have opened a position on NZDCHF as it meets
all the criteria for set up.
Also I am not checking for any more set ups. If you
have a perfect set up thatās enough -
There is a very strong case for only opening one
position at a time.
But I am really trying to crack the potential kinks
in TDI and I believe shifted STR does give clues.
It doesnāt!! see next post
The first orange kink alert wasnāt obvious in the
screenshot above.
but I have edited to correct my view - there
is no such thing as a kink alert - except in
my imagination
In this regards STR repaints to give the
impression of future problems, when in
actual fact it only alerts you after the
problem occurs
not very helpful!
Regarding ākinksā et al, this not something you can drill
down with mathematical precision.
Big E was a master trader because he was a master
at reading TDI.
He wasnāt necessarily a master at reading candlestick
patterns, as he chose to use Heiken Ashi so as not
to get stressed by the noise in the market.
I have noticed this amongst brilliant traders who keep
journals and screenshots, they see things in the
charts that almost no one else can see - they have
developed an intuition and they just see how the
market is unfolding.
For me, at the present time, itās all about the
āTrue Crossā - I will abbreviate this to TC or
even tc.
TC is when TDI and STR cross over blue or yellow
in a very convincing and compelling way.
that isnāt a link btw, just coloured because it is the
most profound and significant line in this entire
thread.
So can I define more precisely what constitutes
convincing and compelling?
Not really. It has to do with angle, proximity of
the two, pre entry before the cross of blue or
yellow, and probably other factors too.
Perfectly straight lines probably did form
some kinks that quickly rectified themselves.
But if it looks like a TC from the outset it
probably will also end up a TC also.
TC is still what itāa all about
What about black arrows, sunflowers,
divergence and Harmonic patterns.
sunflowers are purely decorative, they
mark every high and low retrospectively,
but they make the black arrow stand out.
They actually serve no other purpose.
Harmonics and divergence are very valid
but they donāt especially help this system
as far as I can tell they are largely
irrelevant.
I will use an example to demonstrate this
regarding divergence
We have four beautiful trades where
divergence was either not present,
or was in the wrong place at the
wrong time.
This system is brilliant and simply not
helped by cluttering the chart up
with unnecessary indicators.
Harmonic patterns are similarly
unhelpful and potentially
misleading, as black arrow can
repaint, and harmonics definitely
repaint.
so if you want to confirm a repainting
signal does it make sense to use
another repainting signal?
But there are still a couple of indicators
I might like to re introduce.
Missed weekly pivots are definitely
significant, as price is often drawn
toward them, in other words, weekly
pivots are always hit eventually and
the market is usually seen to at least
make a notable attempt to move in their
direction.
so that can be a psychological benefit
as they have a statistical basis.
The other indi I played around with earlier
on this thread was the heat map,
again statistically valid, to show where
recent price likes to be.
I would only consider this for plotting
nearby exits, but weāll see.
I have been playing around with the Market Profile
indicator and have noticed some spectacular
patterns that keep forming.
Firstly, when price moves right away from the
box and/or top of BB, it will always return
to the prominent nose of the histogram,
if there is one
so only trade prominent noses
My initial rules are, look for a prominent nose
and wait for price to move far away from
box area, look for a black arrow to appear
with confirmation from either divergence or
harmonic pattern
this should be near extreme of histogram
and or BB
Lower time frames repaint and highrer time frames
can take a lifetime to hit TP
plus a nice win last night on a new system
Iām trialing using tcās, even wobbly ones,
and price bar indi.
Using BB as a guide, just move from
one level to the next - extremely
reliable, and works on lower time frames
