With less indicators, I can give a blacl
and white version for any suffering
with colour blindness - hopefully
it will be self explanatory and
it should be possible to follow
even future sreenshots in colour
No cherry picking here - I captured every
qualifying set up I could see
This would have been at top of trade zone -
Only winners? in retrospect yes.
’ The past is a foreign country,
they do things differently there’
Those set ups might not have
looked quite like that in real time
they would be close enough to
be a winning system, but I’m
sure one or two at least would
not have worked out so well.
I need to do a lot more strategy testing
but very pleased so far
Absolutely no setups today.
This should be a very mechanical system
STR is either long and straight or it isn’t
so this is hopefully a non subjective system.
At the moment, I know exactly what I am looking for-
a very long over reaching STR supported by
Black arrow and Trade Zone top and bottom.
So what happened to the ‘True Cross’ system?
Nothing, it seems very profitable. This system
is also seeking to identify reversal points, but
more accurately.
Getting in at the right place ie top or bottom
seems foolproof in hindsight
Mondays may not be a good day, or
maybe holiday season not conducive
but I feel completely happy to walk away
from the charts until something definite
turns up
I’ve noticed Ms and Ws work particularly well
on STR
also bounces off trendline may not have an
arrow but can be just as good with strong STR
Likewise BRNs
I think price needs something to bounce off.
You can have a break out, but with a strong
STR you invariable get some reversing 50+
pips or so on Daily
I am finding anything less than Daily extremely
unreliable, but that may be time of year,
If my current trades lose I will be very suspicious
of month of August
two of my open trades won so far, the other three
dragging their heels
Just like my old mentor used to say - August is a dead loss
- I notice today, the first of August, just how right he is!
Nothing’s moving!
Four straight wins now, despite the
market not moving
Gives a lot of confidence for the
rest of the year after holidays
Looking at before and after AUDJPY-
price moved up to 61 Fib and BRN
acting as Resistance
It looked like it would move down to
the Support of the lower trendline
it did
I had no reason to believe it would move
any further.
Of particular interest is the initial M
on the STR.
it proved to be a very good indication
yet it disappeared during the trade, or
rather it collapsed.
it collapsed due to pressure on price
in our direction
So Ms and Ws may be good whether they
remain intact or not
in other words, in looking back for set ups,
there are likely more winning setups than
we think, as we may not recognize a
collapsed M/W as being a setup because
it was only present in real time
Can M/W collapse against us?
I doubt it, but something to watch for
I think it only collapses because it
proved to be a reliable indication
of price direction.
If price reversed temporarily, I think
it would still resemble M/W
I’m speculating a bit here, with a pinch
of wishful thinking
but it could even be that STR Ms and Ws
are gold dust - and even in August at that
I’m very encouraged
but not just looking for magic Ms
as below, confluence of Fib and
BRN
also. price moving down retraced
above central bb then broke
down through it - powerful
signal in itself
we still need to read the charts
All the above trades are losing badly.
It seems to be an August thing
but I have detected horrific repainting of
STR
Look at the very last screenshot above
- perfect sell set up
but look below how the setup disappeared
and repainted!
Again, it only repaints on losing trades
and August is the very worst month
but I need to be aware it can repaint
The original set up ‘A’ completely
disappeared and price moved 181 pips
against me,
It is moving down now, I could possibly
even win
that’s not the point
The above trades look like they might
be starting to cooperate, and the above
repainting example is interesting
STR now looks like it did before the
repainting but with just with the
addition of the spike before returning to
normal
and here is a new set up - which enters after
price passes a BRN - maybe I have been
a little trigger happy
We want to be sure there is some kind of
reversal underway, without missing most
of the move
I’m finding too much repainting on STR and
Black Arrow harmonic indicator.
on strategy tester I do much better
without all the repainting
On GU I took two trades from last
January
one 43 pips, the second 101 pips on
H1 time frame.
First entry was break od trendline plus
cross of stochastic 50.
second entry was inside bar plus cross
of 50 stochastic when price broke
resistance
It seems I may have spent the last
year reading imaginary clues
in repainting indicators - they
always look so good in hindsight
It has literally been over a year that I have been
plotting reversals on this thread.
I’ve tried no end of permutations and
colourful cocktails of exotic indicators
In just about every case it has proved illusionary.
Indicators seductively throw traders off the scent,
at least most of the time, and in the case of quick
fix newbie traders all of the time.
I don’t propose to continue in this vein therefore
However, if there is one exception to the rule it
might be this:-
Forget ALL indicators, just use STR with
just one level of zero.
We are still looking for a nice long straight
STR signal line
However, if the line starts from the top or bottom
of the window and ends around zero…
IGNORE IT!
However, if it starts anywhere above or below
zero and prints a significantly straight line
through and beyond zero it seems to win
every time - with no regard to any other
indicator, price action structure, time frame
or anything!
So what stands between us and untold
millions of dollars?
It has been mentioned in recent posts-
STR does repaint, and sometimes
it morphs and remorphs beyond belief!
the worst problem is that by the time STR
establishes itself fairly certainly, the move
can be over.
and that, sadly, is no minor detail.
If you can get in on a nice cross of zero
you should win, providing the signal
doesn’t evaporate before your very eyes.
In hindsight though - a veritable Holy Grail.
Below you see a selection of nice looking
STR signal lines - you will readily discern
the point, the grey boxes didn’t work out,
the green boxes all won
in hindsight at least.
I will continue with this, to test it to
destruction, but this is definitely my
last initiative
I feel like Alice down the rabbit hole
A beautiful STR trade today!
Exactly as outlined above - at the time
of entry STR was about midway between
zero and where it is now. it could have
gone pear shaped but it didn’t- this time
at least
a few more like this would be welcome
I’m just wondering?
If STR above/below zero is an extremely reliable
indication of an imminent reversal - it could have
another valuable application - possibly
I also trade straightforward price action, more or
less like a normal human being
Below I went short USDCHF on a clear break of
prior support. the trade is working out well
but looking at my STR template it looks set
to print a reversal beyond zero
Might that be a good time to close the
sell trade and go long?
My best guess is that, for the time being,
price will continue to push the Harmonic
Arrow and the ZUP harmonic indicator
down, and STR will similarly sink a little
and not make it over zero
but if or when it does print a conclusive line
up above zero? it will be very interesting to see
what happens
It shows little sign of reversing at the moment
Another example -
A nice price action sell trade doing well
but check STR template and we see it’s likely to
continue to do well
Wouldn’t it be funny, if after a year going round
in circles trying to find the perfect reversal
indicator, I end up with a powerful indicator
alerting me to either stay in, or close a trend
continuation trade.
I could probably live with that
and powerful confirmation on STR template -
August Summary
Very cautious with reversals most of August.
All my price action trades won bar two.
From September I will continue trading -
Price Action PA
Reversal Patterns RV
Cup and Handle Patterns CH
Stalky Continuation Patterns ST
After experimental and strategy testing most
of August, my serious trades last 10 days of
August did extremely well - 760 pips
Unfortunately due to new FCA Leverage ruling
I had to drastically reduce Lot size on latter trades
but pips are pips.
.
.
.
.
.
So what is a Stalky Pattern I hear you ask
Its a candlestick with very little body, in
other words, mainly stalk.
You need to see a cross of 10 over 20 EMA.
and get the first retracement out of the way
price should at least look like its in some kind
of impulsive move.
When you see a momentum bar followed by
a stalky, the move will invariably continue
In up movem the stalky MUST print a higher high
and higher low than the preceding momentum bar.
that’s basically it
In the example below, I’ve circled the first retrace,
You would then have followed three momentum bars
followed by three stalkies
.
advise strategy for a beginner